@VitalikButerin @shayne_coplan @mansourtarek_ @giancarloMKTS @aosipovich @Polymarket @metaculus @kalshi I'm a huge believer in Prediction Markets. It is free speech, but with accountability. Messengers from the future, warning us of the consequence of our actions. But the markets have significant negative social utility when they are subjective and opaque. It can not and it must not be just about gambling. Prediction Markets have perverse incentives to spread disinfo and manipulate outcomes, so more work needs to be done to surface authentic signal and increase transparency to stop bad faith actors. Polymarket, metaculus and kalshi are the leaders in this industry. Polymarket is arguably the leader and best in terms of transparency and free speech, but has serious problems with bad actors and poorly written subjective markets. Metaculus lack of trading means it doesn't have bad actors, and the rulesets are very well done, but their poor transparency is devastating and destroys a great deal of potential value. They also have poor accuracy and no emergent signal / breaking news because of their minimal incentives. Kalshi has reasonable rulesets, but too many bad actors which is a result of their weak transparency. Through no fault of their own, DCM status suppresses their ability to embrace free speech. I am hopeful, and perhaps even a little optimistic, that 2025 will be the year when Prediction Markets grow up. They will realize their greatest strength is their openness, that they have a profound responsibility to make the world better, and they are not here to just facilitate the transfer of wealth from the naïve and gullible to the sharp and cunning.

Very weird, chatgpt using the term 'sovereign' in negative connotations, when I am trying to use the term "autonomous". Could be just a strange coincidence though, anyone else seeing this?

lol, yeah, what happens when Bessent realizes you could probably do this all with just more tokens on DeepSeek

Could it be that the USG shut Fable down because anthropic refused to put an exception for 0 days that the USG itself was stockpiling?

Canadian PM Mark Carney: Canada, Ireland, and Europe can be pivotal, powerful, and purposeful, a force for good. Together we are powerful because we have the capacity to act together. Combined, the population is more than twice that of the United States. We have a larger cultural export industry and a more diverse one. A similarly sized GDP. Comparable R&D spend. Our collective defense budgets are twice that of China’s. We're home to the majority of the world's top 100 universities and over half of the world's Nobel Prize winners. So together we are one of the largest economic, cultural, technological, financial blocs in the world. We are and can be a force for good because we safeguard the values of human rights, dignity, and pluralism that our people hold dear.

That's always the trick, microdose the Kool-Aid

Wait, what? So mathematicians aren't doing anything valuable?

ofc, there is a very very simple explanation for all this and everything is over thinking it, including anthropic: Fable 5 did something that legitimately freaked someone out.

It says acer has blocked me, but that would be very weird, right?

Concentration of power, capabilities and economic wealth is the biggest risk in AI. We need open science and open-source more than ever!

Yes, except now do it for revenue. I mean.. face palm

This is a pretty striking shift toward Chinese models by American AI startups since the start of the year. substack.com/@profgmarkets/p…

My general view has always been that it's not worth rushing to be the first to do work that someone else could do next week; clearly the marginal impact of such work is low. Worth thinking about this in the rush to publish results where the intellectual labor was done by AI.

I/O 2026 should help us decipher Google's direction in the wake of the recent wave of model releases by Anthropic and OpenAI. Those who have been paying attention know that Demis Hassabis has been generally skeptical of the research direction being pursued by Anthropic and OpenAI - i.e., coding agents leading to acceleration and eventually full automation of AI research. Instead, Google has been pursuing its own separate 5-to-10-year track to AGI, to be achieved through continual learning, world models and a link to the physical world (robotics). Just 4 months ago, in Davos, Hassabis spoke about the "limit[s on] how fast the self-improvement systems [i.e., those being pursued by Anthropic and OpenAI] can work" (see the screenshot below). But now the pace of releases by Anthropic and OpenAI has become relentless. It is clear that AI (Codex and Claude Code in particular) is significantly accelerating the pace of AI research at these two labs. And we have recently heard rumors that an important faction at Google - led by none other than Sergey Brin - is not happy about these developments. Brin has allegedly formed a "strike team" at Google, tasked with achieving “AI takeoff or AI that can improve itself" through improvement in Google's AI coding abilities. For those paying attention, this is the exact path to fully automated AI research and RSI that is currently being pursued by Anthropic and OpenAI. And here lies the tension. Two paths are open to Google now. Will Google turn away from the "Hassabis path" and pursue RSI? Or will Google stay on its current path, knowing full well that if OpenAI and Anthropic are wrong and the approach of fully automating AI research does not turn out as fruitful as they had hoped, then Google's lead in areas like world models and robotics may prove to be decisive? Or, finally, is there room (talent, resources, compute) to pursue *both* of these approaches simultaneously? How Google's leadership answers these questions may very well prove decisive to the outcome of the race to AGI. We might get some hints as to where Google is headed starting tomorrow.

People keep saying calculators wasn't the end of anything, when talking about AI. But what about the slide rule factories? And sure, cars didn't stop humans progressing, but it did lead to a lot of redundant horses getting slaughtered...

Team is hard at work together with @steipete to make OpenAI models and ecosystem be the obvious way to to enjoy your claw. A lot more to come next week, but a reminder that you can use OpenClaw as part of your ChatGPT subscription today already. (also still having too much fun with ChatGPT Images 2.0 today)

I don't know what they are doing over there, but Codex will continue to be available both in the FREE and PLUS ($20) plans. We have the compute and efficient models to support it. For important changes, we will engage with the community well ahead of making them. Transparency and trust are two principles we will not break, even if it means momentarily earning less. A reminder that you vote with your subscription for the values you want to see in this world.

"But here is what we found when we tested: We took the specific vulnerabilities Anthropic showcases in their announcement, isolated the relevant code, and ran them through small, cheap, open-weights models. Those models recovered much of the same analysis. Eight out of eight models detected Mythos's flagship FreeBSD exploit, including one with only 3.6 billion active parameters costing $0.11 per million tokens. A 5.1B-active open model recovered the core chain of the 27-year-old OpenBSD bug." aisle.com/blog/ai-cybersecur…

Mythos drama = BS from self-delusion.