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RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting

RFI enhances RAND's ability to understand complex global challenges through advanced forecasting capabilities.

Joined March 2020
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INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) RFI harnesses crowdsourced forecasting to enhance RAND analyst and decision-makers' toolkits. Learn more: rand.org/global-and-emerging…

The RAND Forecasting Initiative

RFI aims to become the world's leading crowdsourced forecasting enterprise on policy-relevant questions.

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Forecast with us on governance & stability in #Africa and African diaspora countries to inform RAND analysts and U.S. policymakers. Learn more and contribute to this research by forecasting on our latest questions >> randforecastinginitiative.or… #AfricanSecurity #RANDForecasting

RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Since @RANDCorporation's article was published, INFER's crowd forecast has nearly doubled, now saying there's a 43% chance that #Israel will declare war on #Hezbollah in the next year. Read RAND's article to learn how they’re using crowd forecasting >> rand.org/pubs/commentary/202…

Forecasting the Probability of War Between Israel and Hezbollah

RAND is seeking to enhance its researchers' ability to understand and develop policy-relevant solutions for complex challenges through early warning of risks and opportunities. Assessing the potent...

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Then, see perspectives from our crowd and share your own forecast >> infer-pub.com/questions/1378…

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

This question is part of a pair of questions forecasting the probability of war between Israel and Hezbollah. Click here to forecast the probability that Israel declares war on Hezbollah in the next...

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Could Russia's rising #inflation rates (as reported @Reuters) impact Putin's leadership? INFER is forecasting whether #Putin will cease to be the President of #Russia by July 2025. Tell us what you think >> infer-pub.com/questions/1413…

Reuters
@Reuters
26 Jul 2024
Russia's central bank governor Nabiullina on rates, economy and banks reut.rs/3LKV27q
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RAND Forecasting Initiative retweeted
Adam Alonzi@Adam_Alonzi
16 Jul 2024
Replying to @RANDforecasting
@INFERpub will challenge your brain, teach you about the world, and connect you with other curious people! This was my favorite question of this month: On 31 May 2025, will NVIDIA be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? infer-pub.com/questions/1414…

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Market capitalization (or “market cap”) is a way of measuring the size of a company by calculating the total value of a company’s shares on the open market (Investopedia, Fidelity). A global ranking...

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📱From smartphones to military systems, #semiconductors power our digital world. We're asking: What % of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas in 2024? Forecast now >> infer-pub.com/questions/1415

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Semiconductors are a foundational component of modern electronics, powering everything from smartphones to military systems to advanced medical equipment (Investopedia, SIA). Consequently, trends in...

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Pro forecaster @DippySkippy, works in high-value philanthropy investing in London, and shares why participating on INFER is important to him. See forecasting lessons from him and other top forecasters >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson…
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📊 NEW snapshot reports on #Iran's agenda for #nuclear weapons and #proxies are now available for download. By 31 May, several crowd forecast signals pointed to Iran's regional influence remaining at status quo or slightly deescalating. See more >> infer-pub.com/archive
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Amid #election legitimacy concerns and alleged human rights violations in #Venezuela, we are seeking forecasts on this critical question >> infer-pub.com/questions/1399…
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Notable update from our mid-month forecast snapshot report: The INFER crowd is currently forecasting a 53% chance ( 23% in just the last 3 weeks) that #Russia will attack #Kharkiv, #Ukraine before Jan 2025. Read more from our latest snapshot report >> infer-pub.com/archive
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We just launched a new strategic topic to understand the future of Open Radio Access Network. An #OpenRAN ecosystem would allow companies like Verizon and AT&T to use vendor-neutral hardware and software, avoiding reliance on one provider. Read more >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/future…
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We asked INFER Pro Forecaster and geopolitical consultant ScottEastman: What have you learned from working with top level forecasters both in your field and in the INFER Pro program? Hear from several top forecasters >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson… #crowdforecasting
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Our newly released #Russia-#Ukraine report spotlighted a notable forecast shift – our crowd now says there's a 21% chance that #Russia will invade #Moldova before April 2027. Read more from our forecasters on this issue and others >> infer-pub.com/archive
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📊NEW snapshot reports on the #RussiaUkraineWar and #Iran's #nuclear and regional agenda are now available for download. These include a spotlight on the signal with a notable forecast shift over the past month. See our latest forecast reports >> infer-pub.com/archive
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📈 In the past two weeks, INFER's forecast for #Israel declaring war on #Hezbollah in the next year has jumped to a 24% chance. What do you think? >> infer-pub.com/questions/1378

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

This question is part of a pair of questions forecasting the probability of war between Israel and Hezbollah. Click here to forecast the probability that Israel declares war on Hezbollah in the next...

randforecastinginitiative.org
RAND Forecasting Initiative@RANDforecasting
1 Apr 2024
INFER currently predicts a 14% chance that #Israel will declare war on #Hezbollah in the next year. Our forecasters are citing... 🔹Israel's resource constraints 🔹Hezbollah's current focus on #Syria 🔹International pressure Forecast now >> infer-pub.com/questions/1378
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Critical #UkraineRussiaWar forecast questions just launched. Here's one: Will the U.S. #Congress pass a military aid package supporting #Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024? Forecast now >> infer-pub.com/questions/1391
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Our March snapshot reports highlight crowd forecast trends related to #Iran's #nuclear progress and influence on proxies in the region. Read our latest release >> infer-pub.com/archive
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"I want to impact policy decisions in areas that I think are critical to hopefully avoiding #war, ending wars more quickly, or improving people's lives." - Pro Forecaster @ ScottEastman, geopolitical consultant from the US now based in Romania, on why he forecasts with INFER
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Learn more about motivation and techniques from several of our top forecasters from last season >> infer-pub.com/the-pub/lesson…
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