Joined September 2023
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35-Year Curve Update We are very close to a seasonal high, with a low point coming in the next few months.
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SSE Weekly Cycle Signs of waning strength are present, while a projected weekly cycle low is on the horizon. - 10 SMA closes - cRSI bearish divs - trading below the previous weekly cycle trough The timing of this projected weekly cycle low aligns closely with the projected low for the upcoming 66-week cycle low in the S&P 500 in the second half of July.
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66-week Cycle Corrections Despite the daily time frame suggesting a bounce, the 66-week cycle lows are not too far off. The 66-week cycle brings relatively large corrections. 1. The correction in 2020 was particularly harsh because it is the 10-11 year window of the 35-year cycle for a "black swan" event. 2. The correction/bear market of 2022 was particularly drawn out because it was the end of a 7-year cycle. 3. The Liberation Day correction was also particularly harsh because it was the 35-year "Jobless Recovery" recession timing. 4. On the other hand, the 2021 correction is barely noticeable because that occurred during the Contained Mania of the Mania Cycle. ▶️ This upcoming correction has no special modulators like these. There is also a chance that we are mirroring an early low like that of the late 2023 correction. But as always, time is on your side, and the behavior into the cycle low window will tell you what to expect and when to act.
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Russell 2000 Daily Cycles We are in the window for a 40-day (~27 trading days) cycle low. This is the 3:1 harmonic of the 120-day (~80 trading days) which has been dominant lately. This sub-cycle should provide a final bounce before we should expect strong downward pressure into the 120-day cycle low in mid-July. This aligns closely with the expected 66-week cycle low due in mid-July for the S&P 500.
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RESM Cycles retweeted
~ 80 day (trading) cycle feature in global stockmarkets as we continue to peak out of this iteration.
~ 80 day feature progress in stockmarkets more generally with the addition of Dax, FTSE and Nikkei.
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S&P 500 66-Week Curve The 66-week curve suggests that we have found our seasonal high for the summer. Though a strong bounce from Friday's drop is probable, and even potential sweep of the highs is not out of the question. The 66-week curve projects a major market low in mid-July.
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Fifth book has hit the stack: The Nesting Engine of Technology: The 4 nested layers of technology cycles
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All 15 topical cycle frameworks are developed and finalized, from the single-year cycle to the 5040-year cycle. All bolstered with additional research passes, that also revealed some additional cycle dynamics that were not previously known. Instance Monographing research pipeline finalized (6 agent workflow), complete with: - Multiple Research passes - Adversarial Review - Citation Verification - Independent Adjudication - At a glance granular scoring metrics, and phase tables Next step is to collate the frameworks with additional narrative, supporting, and connecting text. Create companion illustrative figures for the cycles, and finalize an archetypal instance for each cycle to include in the book.
Here is the planned book publication order (for now): 1⃣ A RESM Primer: The Master Hierarchy ▫️Detailing the frameworks of the larger cycles and the inter-cycle relationships ▫️The basic principles to know to use RESM Theory: offsets, phase tolerances, concordance windows, etc. ▫️Cycles from the 70-year cycle up to the 5040-year cycle. The 35-year cycle and smaller constituent cycles will be covered in the next book. ▫️Not a historical tome with a 1000 references; A punchy rundown of the cycles with a few interesting and explanatory examples. 2⃣ The Risk Rhythm: RESM's Foundational 35-Year Cycle ▫️Covering the detailed trajectory of the 35-year cycle with the ~20 phased events within ▫️The smaller constituent cycles ▫️The mathematical foundations of the cycle ▫️Consideration to include the quantitative analysis of the Risk Rhythm going back to 1694. ▫️Price with a Capital P: The extremely important concept of the Risk Rhythm --> I have been alluding to this sometimes calling it the "risk-on" rhythm or the rhythm of the SP500. It now has a proper name to go with the concept. 3⃣ The Big Parabola: RESM Parabola Theory ▫️The rise and fall of western civilizations over the course of the Age Cycle ▫️How this percolates down to the lower cycles manifesting in market events occurring that have "never happened", via telescoping parabolas ▫️A case to be made that ancient Egypt as a world power has been incorrectly classified. 4⃣ The Variant Cycle and the Researcher Trap ▫️The natural foundations of the cycles and how that creates the circumstances for variant cycles. ▫️Why these variant cycles stop researchers in their tracks, preventing them from seeing the bigger picture. ▫️Introducing nuances of the Deity and Episteme Cycles. --> This one is still in conceptual development, and may take a long time to properly formulate. As noted, the first 2 books will not be historical tomes with a 1000s of historical references. I know from experience, reading books like that can feel like a chore. Especially books that are covering a cyclical theory, it can become very repetitive. Instead, detailed accounts of the cycle instances and how they fit the cycle frameworks/phasings will be published via Instance Monographs, likely on a platform like Substack.
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DXY Monthly and Weekly Cycle After what appeared to be a break down into a negative cycle, DXY rejected the negative stance at the mid-cycle (which is where it should happen, if it does). The result is typically a basing cycle (consolidation), and thats exactly what we got. We are now slightly past the window for a weekly cycle low and we are getting signs that we will actually break upwards: - Bullish Marubozu Candle right on the weekly cycle low timing - 10 SMA closes - 10 SMA re-test - cRSI lower channel touch (not a full reset) What gives this extra probability to break out of this range to the range above is that we are now in the mid-cycle low timing on the Monthly cycle. The Monthly cycle still shows a negative stance, so the expectation is that this should not break the high of early 2025, but retest some level in the range above, such as a PoC.
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RESM Cycles retweeted
If the #SPX is going for a 1929 style mania, then we are not there yet.
HISTORY IS ABOUT TO REPEAT In 1929, a statistician named Roger Babson stood in front of Wall Street and warned them the crash was coming. They laughed Bankers, traders, financial press - all of them. 49 days later, the crash hit. The same Wall Street that had laughed at him was suddenly broke. Babson wasn't lucky. He had identified a 5-stage pattern that appears before every major financial collapse Same 5 signals. Same sequence. Different decade. The pattern showed up before: 1929 1987 2000 2008 Every time, the people who ignored it lost everything. 2026 isn't different. 4 out of those 5 stages have already triggered.
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RESM Cycles retweeted
The hardest pill for bears to swallow: The S&P 500 is up 10.3% YTD, yet the forward P/E has fallen from 22.3x to 21x This rally hasn’t been driven by speculative multiple expansion It’s been driven by earnings estimates rising faster than stock prices
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This type of polarization is what is always seen about the new technologies of the RESM Cycle. Same thing with cars, same thing with the internet, also happened with bitcoin.
AI isn’t inherently good or evil. It's a tool. Like every tool, the discussion requires nuance. It can educate, innovate, surveil, exploit, and centralize power depending on who controls it and how dependent people become on it. The poison is in the dose... and the dependency.
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RESM Cycles retweeted
Not pretending to outsmart Michael Burry but we will see if he might not be a bit early. Time will tell. #SPX
Replying to @cantonmeow
Imagine if Michael Burry is 5 years early this time, instead of being 2-3 years early like last time.
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TRON Weekly Cycle The daily cycle is not giving us any pullback and we are now at the expected on-time weekly cycle low time point. TRON has been eating through thick resistance zones and now only has a few minor resistances before price discovery. This has the potential to have an outsized move if the weekly cycle is about to give a boost.
TRON Daily Cycle TRON looks to have made a very early daily cycle low at the end of April, probably to get make in alignment with the weekly cycle low that is due at the end of May. If we use the new daily low as the measuring point, a mid-cycle low for the daily cycle would like up properly with the expected weekly cycle low timing. This could be the alignment we are getting.
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66-week Cycle in the S&P 500 As anticipated, due to the rubberbanding from the out-of-sequence Iran War drop, it looks like we will be getting our seasonal high in early June instead of May. r^2 is still at a very high 0.87
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"AI" is not in a bubble... yet
Replying to @LanceRoberts
Its probably worth mentioning that the bubbles you mentioned were either significantly higher % spend for longer, or did not see earnings growth as return of capex spend.
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RESM Cycles retweeted
Here's a chart for the bears, though it might not be what they want to see. $SPXU (Short S&P500). It really doesn't pay to be a bear except for brief volatility spikes. Even when market stalls they don't make money. Anyways, analogs point to further downside for this garbage.
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RESM Cycles retweeted
This is not a bubble!
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Here is the planned book publication order (for now): 1⃣ A RESM Primer: The Master Hierarchy ▫️Detailing the frameworks of the larger cycles and the inter-cycle relationships ▫️The basic principles to know to use RESM Theory: offsets, phase tolerances, concordance windows, etc. ▫️Cycles from the 70-year cycle up to the 5040-year cycle. The 35-year cycle and smaller constituent cycles will be covered in the next book. ▫️Not a historical tome with a 1000 references; A punchy rundown of the cycles with a few interesting and explanatory examples. 2⃣ The Risk Rhythm: RESM's Foundational 35-Year Cycle ▫️Covering the detailed trajectory of the 35-year cycle with the ~20 phased events within ▫️The smaller constituent cycles ▫️The mathematical foundations of the cycle ▫️Consideration to include the quantitative analysis of the Risk Rhythm going back to 1694. ▫️Price with a Capital P: The extremely important concept of the Risk Rhythm --> I have been alluding to this sometimes calling it the "risk-on" rhythm or the rhythm of the SP500. It now has a proper name to go with the concept. 3⃣ The Big Parabola: RESM Parabola Theory ▫️The rise and fall of western civilizations over the course of the Age Cycle ▫️How this percolates down to the lower cycles manifesting in market events occurring that have "never happened", via telescoping parabolas ▫️A case to be made that ancient Egypt as a world power has been incorrectly classified. 4⃣ The Variant Cycle and the Researcher Trap ▫️The natural foundations of the cycles and how that creates the circumstances for variant cycles. ▫️Why these variant cycles stop researchers in their tracks, preventing them from seeing the bigger picture. ▫️Introducing nuances of the Deity and Episteme Cycles. --> This one is still in conceptual development, and may take a long time to properly formulate. As noted, the first 2 books will not be historical tomes with a 1000s of historical references. I know from experience, reading books like that can feel like a chore. Especially books that are covering a cyclical theory, it can become very repetitive. Instead, detailed accounts of the cycle instances and how they fit the cycle frameworks/phasings will be published via Instance Monographs, likely on a platform like Substack.
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