"The Real U.S. Energy Security Problem -- And How to Fix It" is finally out and available OPEN ACCESS. Written before the Iran War, it explains why the U.S. is *more vulnerable* to oil shocks than China, Russia and the EU. Best thing I've written on oil in 15 yrs of study. doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.202…

I have fought the neocons and warmongers in Washington for more than 25 years. Throughout, they have tried to silence, discredit, slander, and cancel me. Only recently, however, have they tried to deport me. At least, that appears to have been the aim of a hit piece in Bari Weiss’s The Free Press, which claimed that Marco Rubio’s State Department was “investigating” me for allegedly seeking to “undermine the U.S.”—presumably because of my opposition to war with Iran. Yet just hours later, the State Department issued a statement to reporters clarifying that “the State Department has no plans to revoke the green card of Mr. Parsi at this time.” Nor did it provide any confirmation for the central premise of the Free Press story—that an investigation of me existed in the first place. So here’s what I think happened. Read the full piece on my Substack: tritaparsi.substack.com/p/so…

It's hard in this war to exactly calculate how much oil is going through the Strait of Hormuz but we had a go and it doesn't seem to be that much. nytimes.com/2026/06/13/busin…

Sec. Wright claims the U.S. is shuttling 7 mb/day of oil thru Hormuz, restoring half of the remaining supply shortfall (not counting the 6 mb/d already diverted via the Red Sea/Fujairah). I am highly skeptical of any Iran war-related info coming from this administration. But… It is possible the U.S. has developed ways to safely guide tankers through the Hormuz gauntlet, despite Iranian resistance. They’ve had 3 months to figure it out, and wartime adaptation can be pretty darn brilliant. Reporting suggests they’re using old tankers to do ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Persian Gulf, run the strait, and then offload the oil with more STS transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Then the shuttle tankers return to the Gulf and the cycle repeats. If what Wright says is true, it puts into new context the downing of the Apache — most likely while providing air cover for such transits. And it explains why the U.S. retaliated harshly — because it’s defending the defense of commercial oil shipping in the Strait. It also helps to explain why oil prices haven’t spiked already — and may NOT in fact spike circa July like analysts project (depending on what assumptions they’re making). It doesn’t fully resolve the supply problem but it does extend the timeline before the big crunch. If the slope of inventory depletion is less steep than we thought, then Trump’s diplomatic leverage depletes at a slower rate, too. Earlier in the war, I was surprised so few tankers were willing to run the strait, given how hard it is to disable oil tankers. And I was bullish that the U.S. military could find a way to use close air support to defend shipping against the more powerful threats like missiles. Perhaps the U.S. really has figured out a workable system. Military history is littered with ingenious adaptations — and sometimes they take a minute. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Illustrates just how much leverage Iran has extracted from Hormuz closure and surging energy prices. A war that began as a bid for regime change is ending as a negotiation over economic damage control

When Trump claims a deal to reopen Hormuz is imminent… and then bombs Iran again

RT @ericnuttall: A great read from Jeff Currie, inline with our view that under the status quo, oil safety buffers will be used up this Sum…

The baked-in military costs of this war already exceed $1 trillion according to Harvard’s Linda Bilmes. Iran’s prewar oil revenue was $50 billion/yr. Even if Iran magically surrendered its oil without a fight, it’d still take 20 yrs to break even.

Entirely unsurprisingly, quasi-official Iranian Fars News denies any kind of MOU approval on Tehran's end.

[Eeeergh!] the screech of everyone’s keyboards reacting to Trump’s latest whipsaw

I love how the White House twitter account doesn’t. even. try. to explain, justify, or corroborate Trump’s about-face. I get the sense *even they* are exasperated and exhausted by this president.

Are you kidding me? Could Trump be more erratic if he tried? 🤦🏼‍♀️ If you were Iran, would you trust Trump enough to make a deal? I sure wouldn’t.

make that 38

We analyzed a Kharg Island seizure back in March. It would be a difficult military operation that would put US forces at extremely high risk. Seizing Kharg would be one thing, but holding it under Iranian drone and missile attack puts US forces directly in the firing line.

Iran denies the existence of an agreement; Israel says no such agreement exists.

Peak authoritarianism. US administration investigating Iran war critic Trita Parsi, says report middleeasteye.net/news/us-ad…

RT @halbritz: Plans for the US military to try and capture Kharg Island have been drawn up for months but continuously shelved because the…

The costs if Trump’s war are already rippling through the global economy. The World Bank just lowered its predicted 2026 growth from 2.9 to 2.5%, warning it could fall to 1.3% if the conflict continues. U.S. inflation rose to 4.2% in May, compared to 2.4% prewar.

Trump: "My preference has always been to take Kharg Island. I don't know that America has the stomach for it, to be honest with it. You'd make a fortune."