Editor of Speculators Anonymous | book addict; Long chaos, cycles, contrarianism; Short equilibrium, gov intervention, fragility
Joined June 2009
- Tweets 21,701
- Following 878
- Followers 9,070
- Likes 33,237
5,322 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
21 Jun 2023
*Emailing out now
Sry if any grammar issues but wanted to get this oil play out ASAP
This play trades at an extremely steep discount to peers and has a great margin of safety (moat low cost)šš»
speculatorsanonymous.com/preā¦
21 Jun 2023
*Note to subs: working on two plays on next dips - an oil producer thatās looking to capture some of OPECās losing influence
And a bet against slowing global trade
Stay tuned
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28 Nov 2024
French bond yields now match Greeces
Actually, French bond yields are higher than 3-of-4 PIGS nations..
Those countries were forced to reform and deleverage, whereas France didnāt
France's gov. Spending as a % of its economy is to be a whopping ~60% in 2024
Yikes France
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5 Sep 2024
The US yield curve via 10yr vs 2yr has finally uninverted (steepened) after 2 years
Remember, itās the uninversion that historically signals a recession since itās the short end thatās being cut amid Fed easing (not steepening from growth/inflation picking up)
Letās see..
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22 Aug 2024
Via the BLS - early revision showed 818,000 fewer jobs in year through March, biggest beg. Revision since 09
Thatās around 70k jobs that were overestimated per month.
Also note that 2023 revisions saw there were more job losses than new jobs
Not surprising. Labor is a lag
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11 Aug 2024
*Chinaās loss making industrial firms have exploded as thereās anemic demand in China over-production
Beijing is subsidizing the losses so that they can keep producing exporting, preventing the unemployment slowdown in growth that would follow
Forcing RoW to absorb it
š¬
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11 Aug 2024
Curious what @michaelxpettis makes of this chart and economist piece (if seen it)
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Adem Tumerkan retweeted
10 Aug 2024
š„ New Week Ahead episode! š„
šø 100 bps of Fed rate cuts this year? @econstratPB
āļø Chinaās nuclear power ambitions @@chigrl
š³ US debt crisis & flagging productivity @radicaladem
Watch it here: youtu.be/PIjkCuNKs_0
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Adem Tumerkan retweeted
9 Aug 2024
šØ New Week Ahead episode! šØ
šø Fed Cuts: @econstratPB on #Fed cut chatter.
āļø Chinaās #Nuclear Power: @chigrl on global nuclear growth.
š³ Americaās #Debt Crisis: @radicaladem on rising delinquencies & productivity.
Watch now! youtu.be/PIjkCuNKs_0
#Economy #Markets #China
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7 Aug 2024
*via NY fed - over the last year, approximately 9.1% of credit card balances and 8.0% of auto loan balances transitioned into delinquency (both the main stressors vs student debt and mortgages)
Meanwhile debt keeps rising
This doesnāt include buy not pay later which has surged
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7 Aug 2024
The CPI (inflation rate) is roughly 3%, meaning itās rising slower than before - but the CPIās up ~22% since 2020 yet nominal wages only 17%
To put that in perspective, b/w 2010-2020, inflation cumulatively grew only 19% yet nominal wages grew 28% (over a whole decade)
Yikes
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7 Aug 2024
If labor productivity growth (output per hour) was actually rising faster, then nominal wage growth could continue
But labor productivity growth has been sinking for decades, hence more debtās been needed to subsidize spending (make up the difference) š
Aka more Debt debt debt
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7 Aug 2024
*Chinaās macro leverage ratio is now 295% (macro leverage ratio is the total debt of an economy relative to its GDP) w/ most held by local govs (this doesnāt include the other roughly $10T in shadow debt)
Debt is deflationary because longterm $ must be used to pay it off
Hmm
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1 Aug 2024
The US ISM Manufacturing Index was a huge dud today
But the labor complement really showed fragility
The ISM Manufacturing Employment index plunged to 43.40 points in Jul/2024 (lowest since Jun/2020) from 49.30 points in the previous month, and well below forecasts of 49
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29 Jul 2024
Chinese brands captured 11% of the European electric-car market in June, notching record registrations as manufacturers raced to beat stiff European Union tariffs that took effect early this month
China over subsidizing EV makers to flood exports is a form of mercantilism
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Adem Tumerkan retweeted
27 Jul 2024
*Nissan Motor saw its operating profit plummet 99% on the year in April-June as its lack of hybrid offerings in the critical U.S. market took a toll on sales.
Ouch
Car demand is fading & China now forcing exports everywhere, limiting profits
Less demand excess supply
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27 Jul 2024
*Nissan Motor saw its operating profit plummet 99% on the year in April-June as its lack of hybrid offerings in the critical U.S. market took a toll on sales.
Ouch
Car demand is fading & China now forcing exports everywhere, limiting profits
Less demand excess supply
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27 Jul 2024
But itās not just Nissan having a hard time w/ US demand (since US is a huge importer of Japanese cars)
Auto giant Stellantis (jeep, dodge, etc) reported first-half net profit down 48% from the same period of 2023
Tesla and Ford profits also down
Auto price war heating up
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25 Jul 2024
Capital One Financial's profit fell 61% in the second quarter, it reported on Tuesday, as it set aside more money to cover losses on loans
Yet the CEO said, ā"The U.S. consumer remains a source of strength in the overall economy.ā
Net charge offs and loan losses key to watch
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21 Jul 2024
Itās ironic that Poland runs a significant current account deficit to GDP (relative to the rest of Europe) and itās making remarkable gains in their GDP per capita
Again deficits arenāt bad if thereās more invetsment > savings; and surpluses arenāt always good (low consumption)
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