Let’s get some facts straight.
New Zealand is not an outlier. The evidence is clear — countries that have allowed adults who smoke access to risk-reduced alternatives are experiencing rapid extraordinary drops in smoking prevalence.
Sweden is down to 4.8%
Iceland is around 6%
Saint Kitts and Nevis daily smoking prevalence is 6.1%
New Zealand is at 6.8%
Norway is at 7–8%
USA at 9.9%! Under 10% for the first time! UK and Finland are around 10–13% mark…
Japan has experienced extraordinary reductions in smoking prevalence — more people now use heated tobacco products (noncombustible) than smoke cigarettes!
Greece has long had one of Europe’s highest rates, but the pace of quitting smoking has picked up sharply post-2020.
• Notable drops: From ~42% in 2020 (Eurobarometer) down to 36% by 2023, then further to ~31.6% daily / 27.5% current in 2024 — a ~10% relative decline in a short window.
This is not an unusual pattern where risk-reduced alternatives to cigarettes are regulated. Other high prevalence countries are seeing faster reductions than the previous Tobacco Control approach which netted glacially slow change.
The outlier and shocking example of failure is Australia proving that prohibition leads to a booming illicit market, cheaper cigarettes and as Australia is discovering, increasing smoking.