The Russian incursion in northern Kharkiv is now one month ongoing and it is time to summarize the intermediate results.
When the Russian offensive started, the Russian advance was initially - at least when compared to the creeping in the east - relatively fast. Vovchans'k was obviously their primary target in that sector. Russians were superior in numbers, shells and had absolute freedom to strike Ukrainians from Russian territory, since Western weapons were restricted from being used there.
But the Russian incursion was eventually bogged down. On May 18, Ukrainian missiles hammered several Russian positions in the northern quarters of Vovchans'k. This was also the day when the last Russian advance was recorded in that sector. The development at the western Kharkiv advance was quite similar.
From a tactical point of view, Russians didn't make any noteworthy gains. Vovchans'k continues to be primarily under Ukrainian control, and in fact Ukrainians have already regained some previously lost parts. The Russian dream to come any closer to Kharkiv City itself in order to position tubed artillery in range of Ukraine's second largest city, is but only a fever dream. So, even this tactical objective of the Russian army is nowhere near to materialize.
Much more important, however, is the strategic situation. Again, Russians couldn't break the Ukrainian lines and are now even compelled to defend this area. Far worse are the political implications of that adventure. The biggest Russian miscalculation has been that the West authorized the usage of Western weapons against Russian targets in Russia, not only exposing countless Russian targets but also Russian bluffs when it comes to red lines. I have mentioned this several times, before. It showed the Russian emperor's new clothes in such an obvious fashion.
There was also the assumption that the Kharkiv incursion was a diversion for operations in the east and, indeed, Russians tried multiple times to advance near Chasiv Yar. But the results there were even smaller than before Kharkiv incursion. The attempted Russian crossing of the Siversky-Donets Canal failed multiple times and the Russian armored spearheads along their manpower were swiftly eliminated. Russians haven't spent all their cannon fodder there yet, but if Kharkiv was a diversion then this intention failed as well.
All in all, the last 4 weeks, but even more the last 8 months have shown us that even under best fighting conditions Russians perform abysmally low. They have the numbers, the shells, the air planes, their industry completely set for war and, most of all, the Ukrainian shell drought. Yet, despite this huge advantage, the results regarding territorial gains are extremely meager, at best. When nothing changes and when comparing those meager results with the huge resources Russians have allocated and eventually squandered, then we can easily call this a strategic Russian defeat. Seriously, Russians cannot even take Vovchans'k, a city merely 3 miles behind their own border. Just keep this in mind and try not to laugh.
Ukrainians severely degraded Russian manpower and resources. They performed exceptionally well, despite the harsh conditions and in the process exposed Russia's weakness over and over, again. It is latest episode for the fact that Russia can be defeated.