1/8 CagriSema data – better than the market reaction This is a longer analyse of the CagriSema Redefine 1 data. Enjoy your reading and please don’t hold your comments back. "I will throughout this analyze try and show what that “extra” potential WL looks like. I also zoom in at one of the most often conclusions I have seen. “Only 57% finished the trial at max dose CagriSema. That means it had seriously tough side effects”. I believe that is both a hasty and wrong conclusion." $NVO $LLY $VKTX $GUBRA $ZEAL @GLP1

If you follow $NVO and the GLP1 space you don’t won’t to miss this weeks update

Even after the launch of dirt cheap semaglutide Biosimilars in India, $NVO keeps growing their sales of wegovy/Ozempic in India. Now demand growth for the cheap biosimilars is cooling down compared to the first month. And pharmacies stock of these cheaper versions start to take up to much space of the limited refrigerator capacities that it starts to become a challenge Many doctors don’t trust the quality of the cheaper versions and keep writing scripts for wegovy.

Great analysis worth reading for those that follow the GLP1 space.

IQVIA GLP1 Wegovy pill up by 9% over precious record two weeks ago. Now 159K TRx……. Foundayo up by 17%. 19.9K In general almost all GLP1 set new records. Might be spill over effects from the week before that had a holiday, and therefore is not comparable. $LLY $NVO $VKTX

Waiting list for wegovy pill in UK is expected to be about 100,000……. I don’t know if this is true. But if it is then it will be a spectacular launch. And hitting 250,000 during Q3 seems possible. That kind of interest would also mean everyone would have to redo their models for wegovy pill sales significantly. But all this is still spekulative. Let’s see how the actual launch will go. Telehealth likely starting deliveries in about 1 week. And then it will take 1-2 weeks more before all pharmacies has received their supply $LLY $NVO $VKTX

🚨Eli Lilly Deep Dive is out! 🚨 For the past months I've been researching $LLY, and I think I've made the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis you will find on the internet. On the one hand I wanted to go deep to stress-test my Novo Nordisk ($NVO) thesis, but also because I find it Eli Lilly a truly fascinating company. The rise they’ve shown in the past years is nothing but spectacular, and I believe this is a success story to be learned from. I'm very proud of the result. I'm sure I missed a thing or but am always open to feedback or insights I missed! With everyone looking into the same semi/AI buildout stocks, I think this deep dive couldn't have been more timely. Anyways, give it a read. And I'm more than welcome to receive any feedback, negative or positive! If you enjoyed it, please share this article or post so other people can see it as well! Direct link to the article in the comment section.

New P2 with once monthly semaglutide and once monthly NN419 (GLP1/GIP/Amylin) $NVO about to start a new 32w P2 in obesity with both NN419 and Semaglutide. It’s a study to Comparing Different Ways of Increasing the Dose of NNC0662-0419. I do not know if this is once monthly dosing. But I speculate it might be NVO already has another P2 obesity with NN419 testing both titration every 2nd week and every 4w as normal. Titration every 2nd week is interesting since even every 4th week can be hard for many with GLP1 The new P2 does not mention how often the will dose. Not that often we see those detail held back. While we still don’t know the exact structure of the molecule, the patent covering NN419 has several molecules with half life 2-4x longer than semaglutide in preclinical models. That’s not to say that translated 1:1. But dosing every 2nd week looks likely. Maybe even once monthly. Why do I then mention once monthly semaglutide. Bc we know such a molecule should start trials any day. And this COULD be one way to both test up vs NN419, but also for now hide that once monthly semaglutide will start P2. It’s speculative, but it fits with other moving puzzles that I will not reveal just yet By the way. This is another study where inclusion criteria say you must wish to lose above 25% to participate. 25 clinical centers in US. And I think one needs to be quick to get a spot in this trial $LLY $NVO $VKTX clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT…

Just one UK pharmacy already has more than 10,000 people signed up at their wegovy pill waiting list. Just one pharmacy chain……. In less than a week. Rumours also has a high numbers signed up on wegovy pill waiting list in UAE. Actual sales in 1-2 weeks. The tides will turn…. And many analysts will in the coming weeks and months upgrade significantly on the back of continued strong sales numbers coming in $LLY $NVO $VKTX

Wegovy pill launch in UAE set to fuel big growth and overtake $LLY obesity franchise. $NVO EVP Emil Kongshøj Larsen tells in this interview, that NVO currently has about 1/3 of obesity NBRx in UAE and the markets that’s served from UAE. But with the launch of wegovy pill in UAE, he expects wegovy to soon overtake the majority of new obesity growth. This means he Basically expects to see a repeat from the launch in US. Prior wegovy pill launch in US, Zepbound had 2/3 or even more share of NBRx (new to brand prescriptions) With the launch NVO in matter of few weeks overtook $LLY and Zepbound. Now it’s Wegovy that has 2/3 of all NBRx. NBRx is new business. If the launch in UAE will see the same trend, even though Foundayo were approved 2 months ahead of wegovy pill launch, then expectations will only go in one direction with each new countries. While wegovy pill was launched last week in UAE, it’s not until mid June they start shipping to the consumers. So currently consumers are put on waiting lists. But in connection with Emils expectations to a fast overtake of Foundayo and LLY obesity market share, rumours at ADA was that the sheer number of consumers signing up for the wegovy pill waiting lists already is higher than the numbers signed up for Foundayo waiting list ahead of their launch. Rumours being rumours also mean we don’t really know. But if the launch really takes off, I would not be surprised if NVO will make some official comments some weeks later. One thing is sure. It will be very interesting to follow the launch the coming weeks and months. cnnbusinessarabic.com/exclus…

Superdrug developing Wegovy pill service ahead of UK approval More and more telehealths and pharmacies has begun preparing for the launch of wegovy pill in UK. The amount of lokal focus on the launch is staggering. We see the same in UAE. The brand name Wegovy really paves the ways for this buildup of expectations. Analysts will become busy increasing revenue expectations for wegovy pill. This year and the years to come $LLY $NVO $VKTX chemistanddruggist.co.uk/new…

$NVO yesterday at ADA said they are working on oral amylin. Maybe that’s new to the broader market, but it’s not news in the scientific space and some parts of the investor space. I have written multiple times about this interesting space. Also $NVO has modified their development strategy with oral peptides. They now primarily start SC development and let that do the initial SAD/MAD/PK studies. And then let oral use that as backbone to catch up SC development. It’s more efficient. This also means molecules already in development but only shown as SC also could become oral. Watch out for amylin 355. That will have 16w data later this year. I’m still on doubt if this is the selective amylin that was teased at CMD24 or it’s a DACRA. If it’s the latter, then it’s from the molecules that in NVO in-house preclinical models has shown up to 3x WL vs Cagrilintide. In the same SC models…… And those molecules have up to 10x bioavailability for oral dosing vs Cagrilintide…… The picture shows some of these molecules. To the right we see how much reduction in food intake compared with vehicle for 72 hours after dosing. Compared with Cagrilintide marked with blue in the bottom Those half life translate to upwards 300-350 hours. That’s likely once monthly SC for some of them $LLY $VKTX #amylin #DACRA

Mayor NEWS. Zenagamtide study discontinuation in new T2D trial, is extremely INFLATED. Since $NVO presented P2 data with Zenagamtide/Amycretin in T2D, at lot of people including me have looked at the data and thought somethings wrong. 5mg up to 40mg had 16-34% discontinuation on side effects 😳 that would be a commercial disaster if “true” But looking at side effects for nausea, vomiting and Diarrhea, they did not reflect sky high incidents, what most would envision to hit 16-34% discontinuation. Also from comparing with other data by Tirzepatide and Retatrutide. Something did not add up. But @flippyfloppy52 has found the reason. And that’s in how the protocol is designed. It’s much much more strict on how to determine if a trial participant should be counted as discontinuation due to side effects. In Zenagamtide protocol you would be forced to leave the trial, if you are not able to take the next dose as scheduled. “This trial used a fixed-dose-escalation trial design; if the planned treatment dose was not tolerated, treatment was permanently discontinued.” Meaning if you just tittered up to 20mg and you get overwhelmed with nausea and maybe vomit 1 time. You ask I you can delay taking the next dose. Or maybe even go back to 10mg for a few more weeks before up-titration to 20mg again. In this trial you got booted immediately if you could not take the next dose as scheduled. Then you would be registered as discontinuation due to side effects. @flippyfloppy52 looked up at Tirzepatide study. And I just looked up Retatrutide 36 week P2 in T2D. In those trials there’s much much more flexibility. Picture from Retatrutide P2 in T2D. Here you can completely miss more than 2 dosing and when you are ready to start again you can start at a lower dose. This difference in how to determine what an investigator initiated discontinuation due to side effects are. This completely change the storyline of how unattractive Zenagamtide is when up to 34% had to quit the trial. Why NVO not have made this huuuuge difference more visible by stating it in the poster. I don’t know. But what I do know is investors at multiple different national and global investors sites has been discussing how bad this looked for Zenagamtide and $NVO I hope $NVO explicitly talks in to this, when they later today will have their ADA investor presentation. These very unfavourable discontinuation numbers are reflecting THIS specific trial design. All ongoing P3 trials have flexible dosing giving participants the possibility to start at lower doses etc. @maziardoustdar @mnovod79 $LLY $VKTX

More than 3 million prescriptions for wegovy pill in 5 months. That’s north of $$500 million. Until earlier this week TD Cowen had peak sales for wegovy pill at $800 million……new peak sales $7B Wegovy pill could be crossing $1.5B in Q4 this year…….. mainly depends on how fast Medicare Bridge scales. But plus $1B in Q4 should be more than achievable. $LLY $NVO $VKTX

As the speaker stated today … “my most important slide”. #ADA2026.

IQVIA numbers This weeks data includes Memorial Day where much is closed down. So the new data can’t be directly compared with last week. On top of that there’s again big revisions of last weeks Zepbound and Founday number. In headlines. Zepbound down with 7% Wegovy pen down with 3% Wegovy pill down with 8% foundayo up with 6% but about the same as two weeks ago $LLY $NVO $VKTX