Iran signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
Iran signed the Obama agreement promising to never, ever attempt to build nukes.
Iran will now sign a new agreement promising the same.
It will seek the acquisition of nuclear weapons because Islamic Republic cannot be trusted.
Even after last night’s briefing by a senior Trump administration official, it is difficult to ignore the major weaknesses in the emerging deal with Iran:
• The agreement could unlock up to $200 billion in sanctions relief and Gulf investment, providing the regime with a massive economic lifeline at precisely the moment it is under pressure.
• The deal appears to rely on the assumption that Iran will fundamentally change its behavior and stop sponsoring terrorism, despite decades of evidence to the contrary.
• No clear enforcement mechanism has been presented to prevent covert funding of Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi Shiite militias, and other Iranian proxies.
• The ceasefire in Lebanon risks freezing the campaign against Hezbollah before its disarmament has been achieved.
• Israel may retain the right to respond to attacks, but it remains unclear whether Hezbollah will be allowed to rebuild infrastructure, rearm, recruit, and restore its capabilities as long as it avoids direct fire.
• There is a significant difference between the right to retaliate after an attack and the freedom to prevent military buildup before it becomes a threat.
• Even the nuclear verification and inspection mechanisms are still not fully defined.
• The administration’s own official placed the chances of success at only 75%, acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in dealing with Iran.
• Iran could begin benefiting from economic normalization and international legitimacy long before any long-term behavioral change is proven.