Maybe it's because of we have the same name, but I very much agree with Ted! 😇
The markets repeatedly searched for reasons to move higher, with the prospect of an Iran peace deal serving as the main source of optimism. At some point, however, the focus is likely to shift back to inflation, elevated oil prices, and interest rates. For now, the labor market and corporate earnings remain very strong, but if cracks begin to appear—or are expected to appear—the market could experience a significant downturn.
A peace deal is actually bearish for the markets.
Since March 30th, the US stock market has been up almost 20% without a peace deal.
During that timeframe, the Strait of Hormuz was also mostly closed.
Still markets pumped because the US and Iran announced 20 peace deals.
Once an actual deal happens, this "imminent peace deal" trick will no longer work.
Investors will start focusing on rising inflation, oil supply shocks, extreme stock market valuations, etc.
This could cause markets to dump, and there won't be any peace deal announcement to stop it.