"My edge wasn’t brilliance — it was obsession. I logged every game and annotated every loss" — Victor Niederhoffer
Joined July 2022
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Just published a full olive oil industry breakdown (no paywall) with a quick lesson on Greek philosophy. Furthermore I share research on a highly interesting stock. Expect a story of debt, restructurings, scandals and a new dawn.
Link in bio 🔗 🫒
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Your vice president said something else. I am honestly tired of this bs
TRUMP: WE ARE NOT INVESTING ANY MONEY IN IRAN
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CEO Gustavo Werneck just bought $781k in shares $GGB
Gerdau $GGB up more than 6% today on a great earnings report confirming the updated thesis from late October. Consolidated EBITDA 23% while U.S. operations experienced 88% EBITDA growth🍸
Up 43% pre dividends since late October and 70% from my cost basis. Thanks for playing ❤️🔥
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Aluminium premiums in Europe and Japan skyrocketed by 70% since the start of the war. In the U.S, however, premiums are >$2,500 a ton making up 40% of final Aluminium prices due to tariffs.
Working on a full Aluminium industry breakdown in light of current developments $AA
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The last time a tax driver gave me financial advice was in 2023 when he told me that real estate in Turkey could only go up... Yes, prices are lower now 😅🫠
My taxi driver just told me that now the war is over and $oil prices will tank,should I listen to him lol
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Probably should go long energy, agriculture and the Yen here.
Jun 15
Our Commitment of Traders (COT) update, highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across #commodities and #forex during the week to last Tuesday, 9 June 2026. social.saxo/rgw8din via @saxobank
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Didn’t expect the ECB to be the responsible guy in the room
Jun 15
🇪🇺 *#ECB'S NAGEL COMMENTS IN SPEECH IN FRANKFURT - BBG
*NAGEL: ECB NO LONGER DEALING WITH SHORT-TERM SUPPLY SHOCK
*NAGEL: OIL SUPPLY TO TAKE MONTHS TO RECOVER ONCE STRAIT OPENS
*NAGEL: ECB KEEPING ALL OPTIONS OPEN FOR JULY MEETING
*NAGEL: ECB POLICY SETTINGS ARE STILL BROADLY NEUTRAL
*ECB'S NAGEL: CAN'T EXCLUDE SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS FROM ENERGY
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Modern_Investing retweeted
Jun 15
Israeli media citing sources: The Israeli army will continue its deployment at the sites it is spread across inside Lebanon
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And this is it. Israel doesn't want peace because none of the war objectives have been achieved yet. Window of opportunity is now...
Jun 14
*IDF SAYS STRUCK HEZBOLLAH COMMAND CENTER IN BEIRUT
*IDF SAYS BEIRUT STRIKE FOLLOWS HEZBOLLAH LAUNCHES TOWARD ISRAEL
*BEIRUT STRIKES CREATING ISSUES WITH FINALIZING IRAN-US DEAL:FOX
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Jun 12
Exxon Studies Takeover Targets Including Woodside Energy Exxon Mobil Corp. is studying potential acquisition targets including Australia’s Woodside Energy Group, as the US giant eyes options to deepen its presence in liquefied natural gas and Asian markets, according to people with knowledge of the matter. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Short volume for $USO stands at $2.54 billion or 145%.
Time is ticking …⏱️
Jun 12
Retail proxy for front month WTI with roll. Chest thump warranted on a -17% drawdown after a near double?
Oh one more thing -- the short interest on this $1 bn ETF is 145% of units outstanding.
145%.
So retail is absurdly net short through an ETF that was meant to give retail long exposure to the front month future.
Glad retail could join institutions on that side of the boat. I don't like "contentious" trades (I prefer "invisible", like nickel in November), but I do like to know that a lot of people are going to be wrong in a consensus position that the market is not really confirming. The chest thump makes me wanna add a Cheer Hedge on top (cheer hedge = @donnelly_brent creation).
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Exhibit B:
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You can’t be fucking serious right now. I didn’t plan on going out drinking tomorrow, but at this point I might have to.
Jun 11
Trump on Iran: I don't want to set deadline for a deal.
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The market can stay retarded longer than you can remain solvent
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Would you look at that. Half of patriot and 20-50% of THAAD interceptor inventory used up since the start of the war. Production capacity has to grow 2-3x to reach production targets.
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70% energy
20% special situations
5% founder lead small caps
5% cash
I'm like approximately
65% energy
35% pm's
Wish I had less pms...
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Demand destruction is so severe that demand is up in the U.S.
Jun 10
US implied oil demand rose by 267kbpd w/w to 20.600mbpd last week
w/w in kbpd
gasoline 137
jet fuel -60
distillate 396
residual fuel il 315
propane/propylene -241
other oils -280
EIA #oott
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Escalation back on the table. You thought this is over? The elites are not done yet. But go ahead and short oil.
US strikes have now hit two drinking water tanks in Sirik, southern Iran, cutting off all drinking water in the district, per IRIB. @HormuzLetter
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