Long term investment idea:
$MRDN
I seriously don't know why this isn't talked about.
Look here. This seems like an asymmetric opportunity that fits a few categories (Fast Grower Turnaround Asset Play).
Fast Grower: This is a small cap with rapid scaling potential through organic growth and five synergistic subsidiaries (Expanse Studios growing 400% , MexPlay 52%, RKings doubled). Revenue has been compounding double-digits, with clear line of sight to acceleration. βοΈ
Turnaround: Post-reverse merger, the company delivered its first GAAP profitable quarter in Q1 2026. This is the classic inflection point we want: management fixing the core business and metrics turning (very bullish).βοΈ
Asset Play: Extremely tight share structure (very low public float high insider ownership) combined with a valuation that still looks disconnected from the underlying business value and future cash flow potential (seems like a great play here).βοΈ
It has some cyclical exposure (consumer discretionary spend in EMs), but the dominant drivers are secular growth event driven catalysts.
Now time for some financials (3 core metrics):
1) Total Revenue: TTM ~$190M. Q1 2026 came in at $50.1M ( 17% YoY). Guidance and subsidiary momentum point to $210β250M annualized run-rate potential as Brazil scales.βοΈ
2) Gross Profit: Healthy and expanding margins. The company owns its tech stack and content (Expanse Studios), so it avoids the 15β25% aggregator fees that competitors pay. This structural advantage should widen as B2B content grows imo.βοΈ
3) Net Income: Clear inflection. Q1 2026 delivered GAAP net income of $2.26M ($0.18 EPS) versus a loss in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA rose 26% to $6.3M. The prior big GAAP loss was largely a non-cash goodwill impairment (not just an operational cash burn btw).βοΈ
If we look at this in relation to our economy, I get even more bullish:
Government & Regulatory Tailwinds: Global wave of sports betting/iGaming legalization for tax revenue. MRDN has a 25 year regulatory track record and focuses on compliance/CSR, which helps it win licenses and crowd out black-market operators.βοΈ
Brazil World Cup Catalyst: The 2026 FIFA World Cup (which kicked off June 11, recently) is projected to be the largest betting event in history. Brazil is experiencing its first major regulated World Cup as a legal market. MRDN already holds the coveted Federal license and has local retail digital infrastructure.βοΈ
Consumer Psychology & EM Growth: Rising mobile/5G penetration young populations in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Europe support long-term growth in discretionary entertainment spend. Sports betting is sticky, especially around major tournaments (just look at any person this day in age lol).βοΈ
Risk on Environment: Benefits from broader digital entertainment and emerging market growth narratives, while being less exposed to saturated, high-CAC U.S. markets where big players dominate.βοΈ
There are a few more reasons I'm bullish this:
Valuation Disconnect: It's trading at roughly 0.85x TTM revenue while analysts see meaningful upside (average target ~$19.73). At more normalized sector multiples the stock would be substantially higher. The theses correctly highlight that this is not a story that fits neatly into simple DCF models because of the multi-subsidiary, multi-currency, high-growth nature.βοΈ
Share Structure Scarcity: Very low public float and high insider ownership (~80% range) mean that any meaningful institutional discovery or sustained buying can move the stock dramatically. Insiders rejected a $330M cash exit and have continued buying: strong alignment.βοΈ
Moat Durability: 25 years operating in difficult emerging markets, low CAC through retail betshops community trust, owned AI/tech stack, and owned content (Expanse). These are hard for large U.S. operators to replicate quickly.βοΈ
Management & Capital Discipline: CEO Zoran Milosevic emphasizes long-term execution over short-term promises and has a clear βwe will not operate at a lossβ philosophy. This matches the type of disciplined operator you tend to favor.βοΈ
Catalyst Path: Near-term (World Cup volume Brazil ramp), medium-term (subsidiary cross-selling margin expansion), and longer-term (continued global expansion and potential re-rating as a scaled international player).βοΈ
I mean cmon.
Read this:
It has just validated a profitability inflection, trades at a significant discount to its growth trajectory and sector multiples, and is entering a major catalyst window (2026 World Cup Brazil ramp) with structural moats that larger competitors have struggled to replicate in emerging markets.
Now tell me you're not bullish.
You can't lol.
If we're looking at the technicals, it is also showing us a bullish structure.
We got a double formation on the bottom, showing great support and reaction off of a long-term support line.
Now, we're retesting this resistance line again for the 3rd time (resistance gets weaker ever time we hit it).
We also have a cup and handle formation here.
I wouldn't want to be short this here.
Just my 2c.
Seems like a great stock for a long-term pick outside of the classic AI enabler/beneficiary, crypto, robotics, or health niche.
What are your thoughts?