A macro system research approach to equity markets and crypto by studying hidden constraints and non linear micro factors that can lead to market instability

Joined June 2021
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GameStop reports highest quarterly net income in company history of $389.6 million. Highest first quarter operating income in GameStop’s history of $143.3 million. Net sales grew 14% year-over-year, driven by collectibles. Cash, marketable securities, digital assets and related receivables, and collateral pledged for derivative asset of $9.7 billion. investor.gamestop.com/news-r…
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I stand with PleasrDAO. The beauty of the tinfoil was, and always will be, the power of memes to unite communities and change the world. Pleasr singlehandedly united the Hiphop, Crypto, & GameStop Communities, who all have common goals for a better future. The story is not over. Prepare your tits. 🎃
17 Jun 2024
We just published a blog post with some updates and transparency regarding the GME holder airdrop: pleasr.mirror.xyz/i3hxMXuq3t…
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SimpleJack retweeted
Many people are saying.
Nobody teaches you that discipline feels like punishment until the results start feeling like freedom
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SimpleJack retweeted
Replying to @pmarca
🥰
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Five dimensional chess doesn’t exist. Everyone is furiously improvising all the time. The future is utterly uncertain.
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This is at least the fourth if not, the fifth example of how my tinfoil is not for a hat, it was used to build a time machine to provide everyone Alpha. If you haven’t been reading my post for the last two years, you have a lot of catching up to do and time is of the essence $GME #88MPG @gamestop @ryancohen
2 Dec 2025
Between 2019 and 2023, GameStop consistently traded between 14× and 16× forward earnings, a range that always puzzled observers because the underlying business was shrinking. Michael Burry quietly explained the math in 2019 with a simple valuation formula: Fair multiple = 1 / (required return − per-share growth dilution − buyback yield) During those years, GameStop’s stock-based compensation (SBC) was running at 10–15% of operating cash flow. That massive dilution term ( 10–15%) completely overwhelmed any modest required return (say 8–10%) and the negative per-share growth from a declining business. Plugging in the numbers yielded a fair multiple of exactly 14–16×, matching the stock’s actual trading range to the decimal. Fast forward to 2025. The latest Q2 10-Q tells a radically different story. GameStop is now sitting on $8.7 billion in cash and cash-equivalent securities while stock-based compensation has collapsed to only 1.1% of cash flow from operations. That single change flips the entire equation: - Dilution drops from 12% to 1.1% - Required return remains ~8–10% - Per-share growth turns positive at 10.9–16.9% simply from earning 5% on the cash pile while issuing almost no new shares The same Burry formula now spits out fair multiples of 48× on the low end and 110× on the high end—even before any share repurchases. If management uses even a portion of the $8.69 billion in liquid assets to repurchase shares at, say, a conservative 12% annual rate, net dilution flips negative (−10.9%). At that point the denominator in Burry’s formula approaches zero and the theoretical fair multiple becomes infinite. The historical precedents like Monster Beverage in the 2000s show the market caps these situations at 100–200× earnings until the buybacks are complete. In short, the same valuation framework that perfectly explained why GameStop was “stuck” at 14–16× from 2019–2023 now explains why, in 2025, the stock can rationally trade at 50–200× forward earnings. The only variable left is whether management announces aggressive buybacks. With 25–30% of the float now directly registered and locked away from lending, any such announcement would almost certainly ignite the mother of all short squeezes.
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Care to model the number of shares sold short yesterday? The data normally doesn’t allow for a good estimate but yesterdays data has an outlier that makes it more reliable Strong possibility of 10 million new actual short positions were opened Yep you read that correctly maximum number resides around 13 million but that would mean that absolutely zero shorts closed, which is not realistic. Read on Apes Some interesting data I am noticing today for $GME I have been developed a model over the last year or two that looks at various data points to identify what the true free float trading supply cap could be. One of the most boring data points that I have monitored has been average duration in days that shared have been on loan. It has religiously been in the 100-110 day range for roughly a year. 106 days at the close on Friday Today this changed dramatically. It dropped to 84.3 days. Typically on normal training days this is small and you’re unable to determine if it is affected by old shorts, closing out or new shorts, jumping or a combination of the two The 5/4/2026 session shows a structurally interesting set of cooccurring signals that allows us to make a strong inference on the short exposure net increase or decrease for yesterday based on several data points. Average stock-loan duration dropped from 106 days to 84.43 days in a single session Off exchange short volume printed 13.7M shares against a normal daily run rate of 1M to 3M Borrow fee jumped 56 percent intraday And the lendable pool went to zero shares at one Fintel-tracked prime brokerage by early 5/5 UTC. The combined picture is a thinly intermediated loan market absorbing a heavy directional flow, against a public short interest of 61.9M shares (15.17 percent of float, 5.12 days to cover). The cleanest read is that 5/4 saw both meaningful new short borrow and accelerated loan-book churn #SHF #MarketManipulation #shortsale #MOASS #ApesStrongTogether
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SimpleJack retweeted
GameStop reports highest quarterly net income in company history of $389.6 million. Highest first quarter operating income in GameStop’s history of $143.3 million. Net sales grew 14% year-over-year, driven by collectibles. Cash, marketable securities, digital assets and related receivables, and collateral pledged for derivative asset of $9.7 billion. investor.gamestop.com/news-r…
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Any of you out there who have taken the 13’th step and become a cardboard crackhead as you were in your childhood years? When @powerpacks launced myself I’m gonna buy a bit just for fun because I want to support @gamestop At the time I didn’t know that power packs was that drug dealer they always told you about Fletcher have fun in the beginning and gives you a little taste so you keep on coming back for more, lol And just like a dope fiend when i got back into collection, I got back in 10 times harder than I ever have been in before I’ve got a serious compulsion. I think Taco Bell just started selling cards or maybe I asked them to cause I can’t be bothered doing business with the store that doesn’t have the wherewithal to sell me collectible trading cards. I don’t have time for multiple stops multiple times a day. Everyone needs to sell them. I became buying so many that I was buying duplicates and triplicates of ones I had no interest in having multiple of. So I built out a little tracker for myself to keep track of my collection. I’m in the middle of chasing down an impossible rainbow with the four one-to-one of one of the elite players in the league and went on a forum to share my progress using the screenshots from this app and people went nuts. They’re asking who’s the app where do we get it? Where can I buy it? When I told them i actually made it just to help myself a few dozen of them said they would pay a few bucks for it and I should make an app. The pretty pictures of the collection are nice with anyone who’s ever read anything from he knows that I get obsessed with the mechanics of how things work and how different things interact with each other. So the app is almost built, and I developed some modeling to determine market trends for different sets, different players, teams, price points etc. Retail can still have fun collecting spent just as much money. I’ll be much more successful at building some value, if they had a way to properly digest the mountains of information. Every box has different parallels with different rates and different print runs for different sets. Ensure take a look below for one of my tests that I ran this week on a new set to see how quickly I could pull the information and get the data correctly organized for actionable purchasing or not purchasing. In short, would anyone pay a few bucks a year to have access to this and the tracker? Give this post a like or give shoot me a comment below on what you would like to see organizational and informational wise to help you collect smarter and better. If there is interest, I’m gonna continue if there isn’t I don’t want to spend money in time to build that stuff that I could just run off of my phone Would any of you have any interest in a retail data analytic app that also serves as a parallel insert set and rainbow tractor. If I do build this, I have several other ideas that I think would be beneficial over the long run. @RoaringSensei I know nothing about Pokémon, but this just be something that Football people would be interested in or to the other side of the house. Is there a need for more data? I think this information will turn out to be beneficial most of the time not always numbers don’t always drive passion or art. But I’m putting my money where my mouse is I bought about $1500 worth of one particular insert on the secondary market today for @topps signature series hoops based on this info. I have two hobby boxes of signature Football due to be arriving this week. Hobbies are not the right product for every collector and his data will show that depend depending on what you are chasing. Be Good Do Good God Bless Go Bills! @CardPurchaser
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While waiting for my Topps signature Football Hobby boxes to release figured I would check out some Topps NBA signature to see what the set might look like. Top hits from two Blaster Boxes this Morning. Not too shabby… If my NFl signature hobbies are half as good as these NBA signature blasters, I would be happy. @CardPurchaser
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eBay wants it both ways. The User Agreement repeatedly says eBay is not a party to transactions between third party buyers and sellers. At the same time, eBay reserves broad authority to remove listings, restrict accounts, hold funds, control shipping programs, resolve disputes, limit liability, require arbitration, obtain releases from users, and seek indemnification from customers. One section says users release eBay from claims arising out of disputes with other users. Another requires users to indemnify eBay against claims, losses, and expenses related to use of the platform. So let me get this straight: When revenue is generated, eBay sits in the middle. When rules are enforced, eBay sits in the middle. When listings are removed, eBay sits in the middle. When funds are held, eBay sits in the middle. When disputes are decided, eBay sits in the middle. But when liability shows up, suddenly eBay wants to be “just a marketplace.” Now eBay is acquiring a secondhand apparel platform for 1.2 billion and expanding deeper into recommerce while simultaneously updating the agreement that further protects itself from customer claims. First 1.2 billion for used clothes who do they think they are @RyanCohen selling his socks or underwear? Wait, I forgot they removed his socks listing. That should be in the user agreement don’t care to compete with them on their platform for anything they may choose to sell you’ll get removed Interesting timing. Read the agreement yourself and decide: Does this sound like a passive venue? Or does it sound like a company exercising significant control while insulating itself from responsibility? $EBAY #eBay #Depop #Recommerce #CorporateGovernance #ConsumerRights
Nothing says “trust us, we’re a world-class marketplace” quite like @ebay updating their agreement • We can record your calls. • We can scan your messages. • We can delay or withhold your messages. • We can share your number with service providers. • You waive jury trials. • You waive class actions. • You agree to arbitration. • You release us from claims involving disputes with other users. • You indemnify us if your actions create legal problems. • We aren’t responsible for consequential damages, lost profits, reputation damage, or service interruptions. And remember, the service is provided “AS IS” and “AT YOUR OWN RISK.” Apparently this is what peak trust, transparency, and customer empowerment looks like in modern corporate America. Funny how the companies that tell you they’re building trust always seem to need 50 pages explaining why they’re not responsible when that trust breaks. Read the user agreements. The most interesting things are usually hidden in the parts nobody reads. ebay.com/help/policies/membe…
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SimpleJack retweeted
Replying to @larryvc
A piggyback question: Where does the board see the value specifically in the eBay M&A acquisition? Brand recognition, established user base, website infrastructure, or something else? To combine those questions, have you seen the post below from @johnghutton, the premium business @XBusiness lead on @X? In the recent annual report, @GameStop identifies #Amazon as a direct competitor. Collectors Inc. recently posted a job description for a high-level accountant role that specifically identifies filing regulatory paperwork with the SEC. As a private company, there are very few reasons they would hire this position if they weren’t planning to go public or spin out a portion of their business. Has there been any discussion about further aligning the business model established through the @powerpacks partnership with @collectors to create a vertically integrated collectibles platform with the assets needed to compete against the mega platform @fanatics has built? While on the Collectors relationship, can you please clarify the distinct parameters under which Collectors holds certain assets related to Power Pass, how #GameStop holds others, and how the financial relationship is structured? @amazon has been, for the better part of two years, launching satellites for an unstated purpose, an educated guess being cell service to ensure their app is integrated and has early access to emerging markets, perhaps due to anticipation that the @X everything app integrating a retail platform. That being said that Amazon is either compounder and will have infrastructure to reach markets prior to traditional application platforms, if you have the time could you please review the post below, letting us know if this was brought directly to the GameStop board or just posted online. If the #GME board was aware, and a discussion of the merits of the suggestion has occurred, can you explain the evaluation strategy in determining that eBay would be the superior platform for future growth. If this is the first you’re seeing it, without having the structural specifics on what the partnership would entail, financially and contractually; speaking just from the perspective of an entrepreneur based on the two organizations structural user base growth, which platform X or eBay do you think is superior for growing and transforming a traditional, brick and mortar business into a investment, emerging technology, and authenticated collectibles marketplace? Would it be at least worth a look and a phone call as the relationship with @XMoney, @USMobile, and @Starlink, are already in place And finally, I promise this will be the last question. Has there been any thought into offering additional warrants at different strike prices and conversion rates for current GameStop holders to optionally purchase and fund merger and acquisition targets with their own cash to offset potential dilution in a stock-and-cash M&A deal? x.com/johnghutton/status/205…

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Nothing says “trust us, we’re a world-class marketplace” quite like @ebay updating their agreement • We can record your calls. • We can scan your messages. • We can delay or withhold your messages. • We can share your number with service providers. • You waive jury trials. • You waive class actions. • You agree to arbitration. • You release us from claims involving disputes with other users. • You indemnify us if your actions create legal problems. • We aren’t responsible for consequential damages, lost profits, reputation damage, or service interruptions. And remember, the service is provided “AS IS” and “AT YOUR OWN RISK.” Apparently this is what peak trust, transparency, and customer empowerment looks like in modern corporate America. Funny how the companies that tell you they’re building trust always seem to need 50 pages explaining why they’re not responsible when that trust breaks. Read the user agreements. The most interesting things are usually hidden in the parts nobody reads. ebay.com/help/policies/membe…
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RC and the board have turned @GameStop into a capital deployment MACHINE. Everyone knows about 9.4B cash war chest $4.2B zero-coupon converts 59M warrants $700M derivative collateral = ammo for the biggest activist play in history. TL;DR: Public SEC filings now prove the acquirer posture. eBay was the opening salvo. The thesis is live and falsifiable. Diamond hands just got a structural moat. Filings chain is surgical: Oct ’25 warrants drop, April/June ’25 converts issued, Jan ’26 CEO performance award (100% performance based, voting rights on exercise), March ’26 10-K drops acquirer language Investment Policy (derivatives/options explicitly allowed), Note 20 flags $700M cash pledged for “existing & potential” cash-settled derivatives right before the May 3 eBay offer letter. Project Sling: 6.55% synthetic eBay stake via TD Bank put/call pairs (built quietly from Feb), non-binding $125 all-in offer (46% premium to unaffected), 50/50 cash/stock with full election rights. They don’t get to say NO. Only @ryancohen has the ability to say No in this case. And that may be him pulling the offer. The architecture is chef’s kiss: • Luxembourg Global Holdings S.à r.l. sitting on $1.366B NOL shield for any European target earnings (eBay’s marketplace ops = instant tax alpha nobody else has). • Stores reframed as logistics/PSA fulfillment network (Power Packs beta already rolling). • Converts & warrants have anti-dilution participation mechanics that protect legacy apes on any big issuance. • TD doing double duty (derivative counterparty $20B financing letter). Every piece interlocks. Low GME price = bigger dilution but triggers convert puts/make-whole that can be managed with high-currency close. High price = clean de-lever minimal dilution. RC engineered the win-win. This isn’t hopium it’s traceable SEC-backed convergence. One leg hits (eBay or next target) and the flywheel spins: re-rated assets under RC stewardship NOL tax savings PSA ramp logistics moat. Rest of the legs (capital structure, warrants expiry lever, derivative playbook) stand alone even if eBay stalls. Apes didn’t just buy a meme we bought the activist transformation vehicle with the best risk/reward asymmetry on the board. HODL the line. The filings don’t lie. Convergence is coming. See you on the other side. 🐸🚀 #GME $GME #ConvergenceTrade Latest updated pdf linked below. acrobat.adobe.com/link/space…
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Who controls a Luxembourg holding company with massive NOL’s awaiting?

ALT High School GIF

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May 28
We've seen a significant surge in submissions following our announcement of an additional $200 million investment in PSA infrastructure and services. That increase has pushed our active queue to nearly 10 million cards. To help protect the submissions already in our care, PSA is temporarily pausing new submissions for all Value service tiers, effective Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 3:00 pm PT. For more detail on what's changing, which service levels remain open, and when each Value tier reopens, read our full announcement. psacard.click/Update-May-x
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AI.... who owns tag? I honestly don't know but i need to find out
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I need a wrinkle brained ape to run through something I found. It is f'n nuts if I am correct. If I'm not I don't want to spread misinformation, Comment if I can DM you and you do your own research. $GME
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