Very few can articulate as good as
@manurishiguptha when it comes to market insights build with strong reasoning backed by visible evidence. Tks
The Illusion of a Floor/Bottom/Support – In case the SIP Shield Cracks
And a call for a tribute to the market legend Siddhartha Bhaiya of Aequitas
Yesterday's (19th Feb) market action was a sobering reminder of just how fragile India's equity rally has become.
Despite a combined FII and DII net selling of a mere ₹1,477 crore, which is barely 0.0018% of the mutual fund industry's ~₹81 lakh Cr AUM as of Jan 2026 and just about 5.9% of the ~₹30,000 Cr monthly SIP inflows recorded last month, Nifty and Bank Nifty plunged nearly 1.4%. A negligible ripple in the ocean just erased billions in market cap.
Investing in India has transitioned from a financial decision to a "demonstration of patriotism." In reality, the FIIs just need to "NOT SELL", and indices soar. These flows are peanuts in the grand scheme, yet they are swinging the markets wildly.
For 5 years, the middle-class SIP machine has powered Indian Markets to stratospheric heights under the banner of "financialization of savings" But what happens if a global headwind sparks even a modest 5-10% redemption from that ₹81 Lakh Cr AUM?
Where is the counterparty?? Who is the counterparty?? SADLY - THERE IS NONE
Domestic buyers (retail institutions) have been the nonstop fuel. But in a true exodus, FIIs - who've been net sellers of barely ~2-3% of their total holdings so far over 5 years (cumulative outflows ~₹98K Cr) could flee faster, creating an unfillable vacuum.
No counterparty implies - no floor, no bottom, no support. Slides could accelerate unchecked.
With a counterparty (or lack of it thereof) risk, Indices could easily retrace 30-50% or more. We are trading at a forward P/E of 22x - one of the world's most expensive markets - while peers like China (12x) and Brazil (11x) come across as markets on fire sale.
What's more concerning is that our economy isn't producing cutting-edge, global-problem-solving companies to absorb this capital deluge. Instead, we are creating sub-optimal firms in a hyper-competitive environment (food delivery, resellers, etc.), that are gulping and then burning funds at nosebleed valuations.
Ironically, Swiggy - a recent market darling came out with a QIP barely a little after its IPO.
To put this a bit more succinctly -
"ब्याह की मेहंदी उतरी नहीं और चले बेइज्जत होने"
"The honeymoon isn't over, and the debaucherous scandal has begun."
These "futuristic growth" companies won't see free cashflows or dividends for years, maybe decades. The Ola, Paytm, Swiggy, Zomato, and Nykaa debacles weren't outliers. They were an example of criminal breach of retail investors' trust.
Scale that up, and you have a market built on expensive storytelling rather than fundamentals.
Institutional cheerleaders like Raamdeo Agrawal Ji of Motilal and Nilesh Shah Ji of Kotak bear some definite burden of responsibility here.
They’ve herded retail into this setup, pushing "long-term" narratives while ignoring the structural risk of the exit door.
If redemptions hit, the psychological toll on India’s new investor class (that took birth during the COVID lockdown) will be devastating. It won't just be a financial loss; it will stall the "financialization of savings" story cold.
Trust and Confidence, takes decades to build but only one liquidity vacuum to shatter.
Siddhartha Bhaiya of Aequitas who left us suddenly with an insurmountable emptiness, called out the Indian markets as a bubble of epic proportions. Let's prove him wrong by selling just just 2% of the MarketCap of India as an experiment or risk evaluation/mitigation exercise.
If we succeed in proving him wrong, he will still smile in his abode up there - as markets will stay safe, as will the retail investors ......
Is it time to question the dream before it turns into a nightmare??
As Bob Dylan says - The answer my friend is blowing in the wind......