@UTKnoxville Data Science and Statistics | Neural Nets Substack | @SwishTheory
Joined February 2021
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1,312 Photos and videos
This research lays foundation to prove the shooting-cognition link.
45ยฐ is the optimal jumpshot arc for %. Yet there are elite shooters with outlier slow jumpshots and/or small size that use โฅ48-degree arcs to compensate. Avg arc:
- Hali: 49.8
- FVV: 48.4
How? Cognition.
May 25
We have tracked hundreds of millions of shots and cracked the equation revealing the perfect metrics of a shot!
On each shot we measured the arc, depth, and left/right positioning and our research shows that ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ป ๐บ๐ฎ๐
๐ถ๐บ๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ถ๐ฟ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐น๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ฑยฐ
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The x-axis should be titled Pullup 3PT eFG%***, not Pullup 3PT%
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Credit to @slipthescreen for initially putting Okorie's 3PR priors on my radar
@_prezidente did a good job expanding on AJ's shot limitations that hindered his NCAA 3PR relative to his pre-NBA 3PR, issues likely to persist in the NBA. Not enough cognition to outlier 3PR dev IMO.
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Also we are coming next year x.com/TheFlarescreen/status/โฆ
My hope for Tanner's creation next szn is continued 3PR development. Had an ATG 2PT scoring szn among FR/SO guards, but 167 lbs means 35 3PR isn't enough.
Luckily, he knows how to access PU3s with speed cognition compact shot, accessed them more as comp rose, and is 85% FT.
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My hope for Tanner's creation next szn is continued 3PR development. Had an ATG 2PT scoring szn among FR/SO guards, but 167 lbs means 35 3PR isn't enough.
Luckily, he knows how to access PU3s with speed cognition compact shot, accessed them more as comp rose, and is 85% FT.
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DaRon Holmes II is the NBA's next breakout big:
- Blend of 3PR TOV-averse passing volume is surpassed by only Horford; enables full-time PF
- OREB volume relative to 3PR raises his off. floor even higher
- 2-of-2 FTR 3PR combo = nuclear off. TS upside; was 83% FT last season
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PF/Cs with โฅ1 ORAPM are very rare. Those with even somewhat of a defensive presence are even rarer and extremely valuable.
DaRon is virtually a lock to be this.
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Maurya Kumpatla retweeted
Jun 3
In the 1999 NBA Finals, a veteran Knicks squad tried to stop an up-and-coming Spurs dynasty. History may not repeat itself, but it sure does like to rhyme. Hereโs what Iโm watching for in the 2026 NBA Finals: medium.com/@AboveTheBreak/20โฆ
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Maurya Kumpatla retweeted
A new approach to the NBA Draft: the Tawny Park Model
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Maurya Kumpatla retweeted
May 28
Here is my final 2026 NBA Draft Big Board.
2500 word writeup in the substack below.
In short, the top guys here have all-time potential. NIL really crushed the depth of the class.
Replies, DMs, and feedback always appreciated! Super fun cycle, tysm for following along w/me!
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The people who crucify "small" guards for worse defensive translation from RS -> PS conveniently ignore the horrible turnover translation that "jumbo" creators have.
There's a reason the 8 PS teams w/o a true 1 -- rather a wing cosplaying that role -- have the 8 highest TOV%'s.
by all means, if you want a ~20th ranked offense go ahead and fade "small" guards for "big"/combo guards and wings. feels like we get the same, disconnected from reality, discourse after every playoff game
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There is no play in basketball more harmful than a live-ball turnover. Why does one group of players get such a bad rep, while the other gets its praises sung all year round?
Salience bias. A tall making a shot over a small is loud, but a small managing TOVs isn't loud.
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Data is from the 2013-14 season and onwards
Offensive Usage: true shooting attempts, potential assists, and turnovers per game
Adjusted TOV%: turnover rate that accounts for potential assists
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Maurya Kumpatla retweeted
by all means, if you want a ~20th ranked offense go ahead and fade "small" guards for "big"/combo guards and wings. feels like we get the same, disconnected from reality, discourse after every playoff game
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One adjustment I'd like to see OKC try is using Caruso as a big in actions w/McCain Joe.
Roaming big -> Caruso DHO/off-screen -> open 3 for a shooter is a play OKC's run in the past. It could force Wemby to play higher on Caruso -- the key to opening driving lanes for SGA.
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As impressive as going from 58% -> 66% FT in one season is, maintaining a 17% offensive rebound rate despite ripping threes at a *.36 rate* is even more impressive.
For reference, Edey has an NBA career 17.3% OREB with .107 3PR (while being older). Clingan is special.
May 6
though not to the degree initially flagged, it was still a meaningful FT leap for clingan.
i wonder how much more the ncaa career 55% FT shooter can improve his touch.
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A member of the 3PR-OREB% intersection club, courtesy of @AtTheLevel: theswishtheory.com/2026-nba-โฆ
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The target variable is EPM. Meant to include that in the graphic
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