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Pinned Tweet
May 6
an introduction to skill singularity
x.com/100guaranteed/status/2…
Apr 12
i wrote about skill singularity, a framework to strategically hunt for outliers. it forms the foundation for my future series on select 2026 draft prospects.
link below, thoughts welcome.
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avi retweeted
Jun 11
Finn (@FinnDraft), Nile (@NileHoops), and Avi (@100guaranteed) pick who they think will be selected by each team based on GM history, intel, and more. Hear their thoughts on the best player-team fits within the T3, Mikel Brown Jr as a Clipper, and more. Links to all podcast platforms below 👇:
Today, Finn (@FinnDraft) and Nile (@NileHoops) answer some questions asked by listeners via Twitter. Hear them answer questions such as “If you only had access to 3 Data points ( like ft%, height, dunks etc….) to evaluate a prospect, which ones would you choose?”, “Anything you’ve seen from these playoffs that is influencing your board or draft philosophies?”, and “What prospect are you the most worried about being wrong about and why?”. Links to all platforms below.
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Jun 5
excited to release this behemoth of a piece, co-authored by the founding members of @thehwcollectlve
this is just the beginning.
Jun 4
Start with our debut piece down below, an all-encompassing analysis of Kingston Flemings' fascinating pre-NBA profile.
We break down Flemings' playstyle trajectory, shooting projection & explore why his excellence in a regimented system is indicative of NBA stardom.
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Jun 5
built by the astute @dlee4three, the new website for The Collective ™️ is packed with useful features for everyone, no matter how one consumes the game. check it out!
thehardwoodcollective.com
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May 13
i've seen lots of talk about combine testing. here's an example of how it can be analyzed.
an evergreen integration for guards is size, speed, and length.
without any on-court stats, we can use these principles to construct combine queries with historically favorable names.
22 Nov 2025
versatility and ancillary production have never been more important for players with "guard" height
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May 13
using combine testing with on-court stats is also useful
there was a wide spectrum of on-ball to off-ball threats in that screenshot. but only 9 guys were drafted with career ncaa AST/40 > 3.5:
wall
harden
westbrook
dwade
jdub
fred jones
derrick white
ajay mitchell
ricky minard
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May 13
this is such a strong group of names. it always comes back to that intersection of cognition and physicality that i reference often.
if you're not familiar with ricky minard, i wrote about him 2 years ago in my half-finished 2004 nba draft retrospective:
api.omarshehata.me/substack-…
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May 13
the query:
nba combine, listed as a guard
this gave me 2000 guards total. from there:
size: height>= 74; weight>= 185
speed: sprint <= 3.15; lane agility <= 11.15
length: standing reach/height>= 1.34
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May 9
the clearest sign that stirtz would get 'gassed' is the decline in his second half defensive activity
at drake:
1H: 3.9% steal, 16.7% dreb
2H: 2.5% steal, 10.5% dreb
at iowa:
1H: 3.5% steal, 10.6% dreb
2H: 1.1% steal, 7.9% dreb
Bennett Stirtz was designed in a lab to play for the Toronto Raptors.
Via @ league him
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May 10
filtering to the final 8 minutes of these games:
drake: 2.0% steal, 9.0% dreb
iowa: 1.4% steal, 5.9% dreb!
notable, as the glaring hole in stirtz's stat profile is his defensive rebound rate.
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May 9
both filtered against top 200 teams. his falloff mirrors a mccollum-ism where 2H team defensive rating is considerably worse than in the 1H.
comes down to more fouls and more rim pressure allowed in the 2H.
also interesting: sharp rises in oreb% and offensive FTr
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avi retweeted
May 8
Allen Graves is a divisive player.
He doesn’t look like a traditional star, he came off the bench in college and his historic stock production didn’t equate to better defense.
So what do stocks mean, and why are thy so important? Special thanks to @100guaranteed!
Link below ⬇️
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May 6
with developmental investment, oscar cluff should evolve into one of the best 260 lb shooters. even as a 25 year old rookie with 5 career threes made.
his innate touch is too special. with his passing and elite rebounding, volume shooting would give him a robust offensive floor.
Feb 18
by the rule of cool, this oscar cluff bucket was in fact good for his first three of the season (and sixth of his college career)
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May 6
the most obvious comp would be jock landale.
1. australian
2. 6'11 250
3. elite from long 2 FT% no 3P volume in college
the only 250 lb players in the nba this year to put up 3 oreb/75 and 3 3PA/75: clingan, klove, and jock
the path is so clear: start bombing 3s asap
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22 Jul 2025
this thread consolidates all of my writing in one place:
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Jan 25
allen graves
x.com/100guaranteed/status/2…
Jan 16
santa clara's allen graves is the most underrated freshman in the country.
@freewave3 and I teamed up to change the narrative. link below ⏬️
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May 6
an introduction to skill singularity
x.com/100guaranteed/status/2…
Apr 12
i wrote about skill singularity, a framework to strategically hunt for outliers. it forms the foundation for my future series on select 2026 draft prospects.
link below, thoughts welcome.
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May 6
though not to the degree initially flagged, it was still a meaningful FT leap for clingan.
i wonder how much more the ncaa career 55% FT shooter can improve his touch.
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Apr 23
my favorite nfl prospects besides makai lemon:
d'angelo ponds
spencer fano
dillon thieneman
eli stowers
eli heidenreich
cole payton
bryce lance
tanner koziol
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Apr 23
this is too easy.
x.com/fball_insights/status/…
Makai Lemon owns a career 3.0 YPRR vs man and zone coverage. Only WRs drafted since 2021 to do the same (PFF)
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avi retweeted
Apr 22
🆕 NEW NBA DRAFT CONTENT 🆕
🎧 The Center Hub Draft Show 🎧
— Episode 9: NBA Draft and Grassroots Thoughts with @100guaranteed —
@KammH_ is joined by Avi (@100guaranteed) and they discuss the NBA Draft and some grassroots basketball.
TUNE IN! ⬇️
open.spotify.com/episode/0qF…
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Apr 15
whether you're looking for sleepers or interested in portal commentary, our transfer portal extravaganza is a useful listen.
with every team in the nation hunting for size, this episode's emphasis on EV bigs is highly pertinent.
Apr 13
Episode 11 of The 5th Factor Podcast is LIVE👇
@NileHoops and @100guaranteed joined the show for an all-encompassing roundtable on the transfer portal!
We discussed:
- our favorite (and least favorite) fits
- portal strategy philosophizing
- some #RealDeal Sleepers
more!
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