Our @ReginaSchleiger said on 5/22," Ultimately, the Bank is likely to hike at one of its next two policy meetings – whether it’s the June meeting or the July 12 forecast round is currently a line-ball call." @BOC on 6/21" Bank of Canada debated Hike or Hold with Hike signal in June" #BOC

@SassGhahramani wrote on 6/15 "we have a suspicion that rather than debating between 3.75% and 4%, markets should start looking at a real possibility that the ECB may need to go above 4%." @Bloomberg 6/20 "Traders raised bets on further ECB interest-rate hikes after a hotter-than-expected inflation print in the UK bolstered the case for more tightening. Money markets are fully pricing in a 4% terminal rate by October." @highisland #ECB

Our Director of Central Bank Policy @ReginaSchleiger said on 5/9/2023 "The BOE will likely deliver another widely expected 25 basis-point- hike in its Bank rate this week to 4.50% though less expected is that it might well be its last for the cycle" Today 5/11/2023 @bankofengland “We are approaching a point when we should be able to in a sense rest in terms of the level of rates,” Bailey said Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg TV. #BOE

In our #FedWatch Report on 5/1/23 @TimDuy said The Fed will push policy rates up another notch this week to 5.125%. Although the Fed will likely keep the option for another hike in June open, there is growing pressure from the doves to bring this cycle to an end. The hawks are still trying to keep the Fed on notice that inflation has not yet been vanquished, but they are working against growing concerns of an emerging credit crunch. @markets reports confirm "The Fed decision is out, and duly entails a 25 bp hike. Notably, the statement omits the comment that “some additional policy firming may be necessary,” noting instead that “the Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy."

@SassGhahramani said on 3/31 "So, 4% is not exactly our “call” – at least not yet. But even if the pace is now a little more conditional and cautious, we do suspect that may still end up far closer to the ultimate destination than markets currently expect." @FT on 4/24 "“I would not be surprised if we had to go to 4 per cent at some point,” said Wunsch, indicating that borrowing costs could rise further than expected by investors, who are betting on a rise in the ECB’s deposit rate to slightly above 3.75 per cent."- @MAmdorsky

“Right now” seems like an important qualifier.

Subscribe to Our Reports Here: sghmacro.com/contact-us/

On March 13th our CEO @SassGhahramani said "when measured against their respective outlooks for core inflation this year, a reasonable metric in our view, the ECB is not nearly where the Fed is on rates, and the ECB’s long-signaled decision to hike 50 basis points on Thursday, from 2.5% to 3.0%, is from an economic and monetary policy perspective still a clear no-brainer" @Markets wrote today A “large majority” on the European Central Bank’s 26-member interest-rate-setting panel supported March’s decision for a half-point hike, according to an account of the meeting that took place as shares in Credit Suisse Group AG were plunging. @weberalexander @jrandow

@Markets "Homebuilders are on a roll, with the stocks rallying to the highest since January 2022, after industry bellwether D.R. Horton Inc. reported better-than-expected orders and results for the second-quarter" @JP_Hyland @brebradham

Hi Erik. With all due respect I could not disagree with you more strongly on your proposal that the #FederalReserve and #ECB announce a halt to interest rate hikes "until financial stability is restored." Playbook from days when there was no inflation, moral hazard for no gain.

Thank you @Isabel_Schnabel, for a dynamic conversation. The full conversation can be found here: sghmacro.com/media_event/a-c…

SGH's @TimDuy "We think there is enough momentum in the economy to bring policy rates to a peak of 5.625%. "

SGH's @SassGhahramani said on 11/30/22 "things stand, however, the ECB is likely to raise rates into the 3.5% to 4.0% range next year and look to keep them there for a while to bring inflation back down to target..." @markets 2/24/23 Money markets now price the ECB deposit rate to peak at around 3.87% later this year compared to around 3.5% at the beginning of the year. Read SGH's Full Report Here: sghmacro.com/report/ecb-a-ma… Subscribe for our insight 📈

SGH's @TimDuy said in his report on 2/21/23 "The minutes will likely reveal that FOMC participants believed that stepping down to a pace of 25bp would allow the Fed to respond flexibly to incoming data." The @federalreserve Minutes 2/22/23 "Many of these participants observed that a further slowing in the pace of rate increases would better allow them to assess the economy's progress toward the Committee's goals of maximum employment and price stability as they determine the extent of future policy tightening that will be required to attain a stance that is sufficiently restrictive to achieve these goals." Subscribe here for our insight: sghmacro.com/contact-us/

SGH's @TimDuy " We think there is enough momentum in the economy to bring policy rates to a peak of 5.625%."

US PMIs smash expectations, suggest US growth is far stronger than many think. Services PMI jumps to 50.5, back in expansion territory and higher than all 18 economists in Reuters poll (max forecast was 49.0). US yields jump - 10y nearing 4.0%, implied terminal rate now 5.33%.