$SOMA.v has become a total basket case. Stock has plunged from 2.56 in January to 0.83 yesterday and will probably take another hit today due to the announced share offering. Management is to blame here. They overpromised when it was clear, at least to them, that they would not be able to deliver on their promises.
So where do we stand today? Fully diluted mcap incl. the pending share offering with broker warrants and incl. last week’s debt-for-equity transaction is CAD 126.2M = USD 90.6M based on yesterday's closing price. If Soma can’t solve its problems and increase production in a substantial way, the stock is not and will not be a buy. However, leverage to higher production and cash flows has become extremely large. If Soma managed an annual runrate production of 30 koz by year-end, the annual AISC margin at 4.5k gold would be USD 67.5M or 74.5% of fully diluted mcap. That would already be worlds better than where we stand today. If Soma managed to come close to achieving its old 2026 production target of 55 koz (won’t happen before 2027), the annual AISC margin at 4.5k gold would jump to USD 170.5M or 188% of fully diluted mcap. In this case the after-tax FCF would exceed the fully diluted mcap. Last year Soma speculated about achieving an annual production of 70 koz by 2027, but I won’t go there.
Result: If Soma can turn things around and achieve the first line of its previous growth target, the stock is a steal. However, caveat emptor (buyer beware). IMO one can’t have the necessary conviction right now that the company will recover operationally. Management needs to deliver first and regain the lost trust before an investment in the company makes sense.