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Joined March 2022
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The hate is high and rightfully so for $SOMA.V but below is a good nuanced take.
$SOMA.v has become a total basket case. Stock has plunged from 2.56 in January to 0.83 yesterday and will probably take another hit today due to the announced share offering. Management is to blame here. They overpromised when it was clear, at least to them, that they would not be able to deliver on their promises. So where do we stand today? Fully diluted mcap incl. the pending share offering with broker warrants and incl. last week’s debt-for-equity transaction is CAD 126.2M = USD 90.6M based on yesterday's closing price. If Soma can’t solve its problems and increase production in a substantial way, the stock is not and will not be a buy. However, leverage to higher production and cash flows has become extremely large. If Soma managed an annual runrate production of 30 koz by year-end, the annual AISC margin at 4.5k gold would be USD 67.5M or 74.5% of fully diluted mcap. That would already be worlds better than where we stand today. If Soma managed to come close to achieving its old 2026 production target of 55 koz (won’t happen before 2027), the annual AISC margin at 4.5k gold would jump to USD 170.5M or 188% of fully diluted mcap. In this case the after-tax FCF would exceed the fully diluted mcap. Last year Soma speculated about achieving an annual production of 70 koz by 2027, but I won’t go there. Result: If Soma can turn things around and achieve the first line of its previous growth target, the stock is a steal. However, caveat emptor (buyer beware). IMO one can’t have the necessary conviction right now that the company will recover operationally. Management needs to deliver first and regain the lost trust before an investment in the company makes sense.
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For those interested, some technical mining talk. You might get the impression I hate equivalent grades and prefer NSR rock values instead.
A rare conversation with @KJKLtd. 4 Free Tools That Expose Mining Promoter Lies (an Engineer's Guide) Watch it: youtu.be/eBQETcFQ64g
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The market topping out because of the SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs is the most consensus opinion I’ve seen in a long time. It’s rarely that easy.
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Exactly what I wrote in my last Substack article.
Junior miners are now outperforming the majors. The Venture is breaking out of a 10-year base. This looks like the real deal - years in the making.
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Added 78 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final): @__MattLindsay (watchlist) - $PLBY, $KITS.TO @BlokeOak57182 - $RGL.L @cdnvaluestocks - $PBL.TO @TokStocks - $FMN.V @norbucap - $AS (earnings) fund letters and more...
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We’re breaking ground on Nouveau Monde Graphite’s Matawinie Mine — just six months after we referred it to the Major Projects Office. This will become the largest graphite mine in the G7. It will create more than 1,000 career opportunities, catalyse nearly $2 billion of investments, and build a stronger, more independent Canadian economy.
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First time I’ve ever agreed with MTG. 👽🛸👎
I really don’t care about the UFO files. I just don’t. I’m so sick of the “look at the shiny object” propaganda while they wage foreign wars, let rapist and pedophiles run free, and ruin the value of our dollar. Unless they roll out live aliens and test demo UFOs or actually admit what we know this really is then I have way better things to do on this Friday.
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Just wrote a 7,000 word report on Minera Alamos. Tldr: -Highest producting CAGR in the sector 26-29 at 68% -Trading under 0,3xNPV -Production in the US -A lot of insiders buying Read the report here: open.substack.com/pub/gpcapi… $MAI.V $MAI.NE
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Interesting price action in precious metals. Seeing a lot of higher highs and higher lows heading into the weekend. Also bouncing off oversold levels. Take that for what it's worth.
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Commodities just broke out of a 15-year base. The supercycle accelerates - led by crude oil. Hard asset investors win.
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While I hear many throwing in the towel on Figma, $FIG, it’s a good time to recall the fundamentals amidst poor price action. - 2027 P/S Ratio: 4.9x - $1.7B Cash (20% of market cap) - 136% Net Retention Rate (best in class) - AI Credits & Monetization just turned on Figma is a software business born in the AI era. The fact that they don’t have a bloated headcount like the incumbents in the industry should prove to be a tailwind.
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BREAKING NEWS CENTRAL BANKS ADDED GOLD HOLDINGS AT THE FASTEST PACE IN MORE THAN A YEAR IN THE FIRST QUARTER Here we go again…
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This guys gets it.. & there is more. Will comment later today or early this week on the bigger picture of the announcement today. Congrats to all involved. #LNG $ARX.TO
$TOU.to $ARX.to - also given the sizable Cdn retail & Institutional ownership of $ARX.to, the scrip portion of the transaction is unattractive to hold. I would expect once today's arb flows get settled, that sizable holders of ARC look to rotate funds into other large cap Cdn energy and Tourmaline $TOU.to is the most logical choice.
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McLaren Golf about to supplant PXG in wealthy 12-handicapper bags across this great nation.
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The Canada Strong Fund is Canada’s first national sovereign wealth fund. It will invest in the major projects that are transforming our economy — and give Canadians a direct stake in our nation’s prosperity.
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Gold Stocks: The giant explosion in free cash flow for gold miners is without precedent. Nice chart from RBC 👀👇 $GDX $GDXJ
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Good job! Nice interview! A couple of the good ones got together for a great pod.
Canada is known for exporting commodities Another commodity in hot demand is Canadian cannabis according to @Stocks_Stones micro cap investor For a look at ways to play this watch the full episode! youtu.be/odjCVG36ETc?si=zUTH…
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RT @ericnuttall: Ninepoint Energy Strategies Update: the "battle for the barrel"™️ and what it means for the oil price in the weeks ahead:…
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