Ground Research Note – JSLL Surat Centre Visit As part of our ongoing ground research on Jeena Sikho Lifecare Limited (JSLL), one of our team members recently visited the company’s Surat facility to understand patient traction, footfall, service quality, and the overall operating environment. The Surat centre is a 25-bed hospital and day-care facility located in a prime commercial area of Surat. The facility operates from a leased property, and our team member observed significant JSLL branding throughout the building. The company has rented the upper floors for its hospital and clinic operations. During the visit, healthy patient activity and strong occupancy levels were observed. Based on on-ground observations and interactions, the centre appears to receive approximately 100–150 visitors daily. The facility remained busy throughout the visit, indicating strong patient traction and utilisation. To better understand the patient experience, our team member visited the centre as a prospective patient enquiring about Panchakarma treatment. At the reception, the staff asked detailed questions regarding existing health conditions, ongoing treatments, and whether any allopathic medicines were being taken. The interaction appeared professional and patient-centric. The staff also informed that certain treatments may be eligible for insurance claims, subject to policy coverage. Pricing details were not disclosed at the reception level, as treatment costs are determined by the consulting doctor after evaluating the patient’s medical condition and treatment requirements. At the end of the discussion, the staff provided their business card and requested complete medical details along with insurance policy information for further evaluation. The overall environment of the facility was well-maintained, organised, and professional. During the visit, our team member also observed discussions among patients regarding their treatment experiences. Some individuals spoke positively about their health improvements after undergoing Ayurvedic treatment, including patients discussing cancer-related treatments. While these are individual experiences and cannot be independently verified, they indicate a high level of trust among patients in the company’s treatment approach. Overall, our observations suggest that the Surat centre is witnessing strong patient footfall, healthy occupancy levels, and positive patient engagement. The centre appears to be operating efficiently and benefits from its strategic location and strong local brand visibility. This was our third on-ground visit to a JSLL healthcare facility after Navi Mumbai and Panvel, both of which have already been covered in detail in our research report. Credit: @palbalar30 Email: pal@trinetramanager.com #Trinetra #Investing #JSSL #Jeenasikho #hospitals #Healthcare #Industry

Entero Healthcare Solutions Ltd – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our views A healthcare distribution platform trying to build a pan-India moat through scale, acquisitions and higher-margin medtech expansion Entero delivered a strong FY26 with revenue at ₹6,591 crore ( 31.5% YoY on like-to-like basis), EBITDA at ₹266 crore with 4% margin, and PAT at ₹146 crore ( 36% YoY). Q4 was even stronger with revenue growth of ~43% YoY and EBITDA margin expanding to 4.5%. The biggest positive from the quarter was margin improvement. Gross margin expanded sharply to 10.9% in Q4 from lower single-digit levels historically, mainly due to better procurement efficiencies, increasing scale and higher contribution from medtech businesses where Entero plays a more commercial role instead of just pure distribution. Management clearly indicated that future EBITDA improvement will largely come from gross margin expansion. The company is gradually transforming from a pharma distributor into a broader healthcare distribution and commercialization platform. Over FY26, Entero completed seven acquisitions including multiple medtech acquisitions, taking medtech revenue contribution to more than ₹1,000 crore annualized revenue and ~15% of total sales. Management believes this can move towards 20% over time. This medtech shift is strategically important because medtech distribution carries structurally better margins than traditional pharma distribution. In several cases, Entero is not only distributing products but also handling commercialization, sales support, installations and demand generation for global companies, which significantly improves margins and return ratios. Another important takeaway was management’s confidence around the moat they are building. Today the platform serves more than 1 lakh pharmacies, 3,600 hospitals and 3,300 healthcare manufacturers across India. Management repeatedly emphasized that this creates a two-sided network effect — more suppliers join because of customer reach and more customers join because of product breadth. Operationally also, the business continues to improve steadily. Working capital days reduced further, operating cash flow turned positive at ₹96 crore for FY26, and ROCE improved sharply to ~15% for the year and ~18% in Q4. Management guided for ROCE to cross 20% going ahead as margins expand further. For FY27, the company guided for 23% revenue growth and 5% EBITDA margin without assuming any fresh acquisitions. Importantly, around 11% of this growth will come from the full-year impact of acquisitions already completed, while the remaining growth is expected from organic expansion. Management also clarified that FY27 will be more focused on integrating and scaling the existing platform rather than aggressively chasing new acquisitions. This is important because the company has already completed a very large number of acquisitions over the last few years and execution quality now becomes critical. One emerging growth driver is GLP-1 distribution. While the current contribution is still small relative to total business, Entero believes it has a disproportionately higher market share in this category because of its cold-chain capabilities and nationwide infrastructure. At the same time, there are still some things investors need to monitor carefully. - Minority interest leakage has become meaningful because many acquisitions are not fully owned initially. - Working capital remains structurally high because distribution businesses naturally require inventory and receivables. - Continuous acquisitions increase integration complexity. - Margins are improving, but this still remains a relatively low-margin business compared to other healthcare segments. Overall, Entero appears to be moving beyond the image of a simple pharma distributor. The company is trying to build a scaled healthcare supply-chain and commercialization platform with improved margins, rising medtech exposure and stronger return ratios. If management successfully integrates acquisitions, improves gross margins further and continues building higher-value medtech relationships, Entero can gradually evolve into one of the largest organized healthcare distribution platforms in India over the next few years. #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #Entero #healthcare #solutions

Rainbow Children's Medicare Ltd – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our views A focused mother & child healthcare platform which is slowly becoming a scaled healthcare network story Rainbow delivered a strong Q4 FY26 with revenue at ₹460 crore ( 24% YoY), EBITDA at ₹145 crore ( 26% YoY) and PAT at ₹78 crore ( 38% YoY). For FY26, revenue stood at ₹1,703 crore ( 12% YoY) while EBITDA margins remained strong at ~32%, continuing to be among the best in the hospital sector. The important thing is that this growth came despite a large capacity addition in the year. The company added nearly 500 beds during FY26, the highest in its history, while occupancies remained stable. That gives confidence that demand absorption is happening well across both mature and new hospitals. What changed during the year is that Rainbow is now clearly moving from being a Hyderabad-centric pediatric chain to a larger multi-city mother & child healthcare network. Bangalore, Chennai and newer geographies are becoming more important, while acquisitions like Warangal and Guwahati are scaling up smoothly. Management also sounded more aggressive on expansion, with nearly 900 beds currently under execution across Gurgaon, Pune, Coimbatore, Bangalore and Indore. The company continues to position itself differently from normal maternity chains. Their focus remains on high-end pediatric specialties, NICU, PICU, liver transplants, fertility and advanced neonatal care, which structurally supports better margins and stronger ARPOB compared to normal women & child hospitals. Management repeatedly highlighted that Rainbow operates more like a pediatric multi-specialty platform rather than a simple maternity chain. One important positive from the call was management commentary around occupancy and growth. The company believes mature hospitals can move back towards ~60% occupancy over time, while group occupancy can sustain around 56–58%, which would meaningfully improve operating leverage. At the same time, the new CEO has started focusing heavily on execution, digital systems, CRM, doctor engagement and conversion metrics, which indicates the company is entering a more process-driven phase. Another important piece is fertility (IVF), which is becoming a meaningful contributor. IVF revenue reached ~₹61 crore in FY26 and management expects ~25% annual growth for the next few years. This segment not only improves revenue mix but also helps patient conversion into maternity and pediatric care over time. The balance sheet remains one of the strongest parts of the story. The company remains debt-free with cash reserves of nearly ₹600–700 crore, and management indicated that even the ongoing expansion pipeline will largely be funded through internal accruals. At the same time, there are still some things to watch carefully. Occupancy in mature hospitals has not fully returned to historical levels yet because of lower seasonal illnesses and changing case mix. International business was weak during the year because of geopolitical issues, and new hospitals will naturally take time to mature. Also, this remains a specialty healthcare business where doctor quality, execution and maintaining clinical standards across cities will be critical as the network expands rapidly. Overall, Rainbow still looks like one of the highest-quality hospital platforms in the country because of its niche positioning, strong margins, clean balance sheet and focused mother & child healthcare model. The company is now entering the next phase where the story is less about adding beds and more about improving occupancy, scaling specialties and building stronger multi-city execution. If management executes well on the current expansion pipeline, Rainbow can slowly evolve from a niche pediatric chain into a much larger specialty healthcare platform over the next few years. #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #Rainbow #healthcare #Hospitals #Maternitychain #pediatric

Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services Ltd – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our views A fast-scaling North India hospital platform which is combining strong execution with aggressive cluster expansion Yatharth delivered a very strong FY26 with revenue at ₹1,207 crore ( 36% YoY), EBITDA at ₹292 crore ( 30% YoY) and PAT at ₹170 crore ( 30% YoY). Q4 was even stronger, with revenue growing ~47% YoY to ₹342 crore while EBITDA reached the company’s highest ever quarterly level. The growth was not only because of mature hospitals but also due to strong ramp-up in newly added facilities. Management highlighted that the Delhi and Faridabad hospitals scaled up much faster than internal expectations, while the Agra acquisition has already reached double-digit EBITDA margins within a short period. The bigger story here is that Yatharth is no longer just a Noida-based hospital chain. The company is clearly building a larger NCR-focused healthcare network through a cluster-based strategy. Noida, Faridabad, Delhi, Gurugram, and Agra are now becoming connected healthcare clusters where the company can improve doctor attraction, referrals, branding, and operating leverage. Management repeatedly highlighted that this cluster approach is one of the biggest differentiators for them. Operationally, the business continues to improve. Occupancy for Q4 stood at 71%, which is already strong despite significant bed additions. ARPOB also improved to ~₹33,000, while hospitals like Noida Extension and Greater Noida are now operating at much higher realization levels because of increasing super-specialty mix and international patients. Oncology contribution at Noida Extension has increased meaningfully and management expects newer hospitals like Gurugram to eventually operate at ARPOB above ₹50,000. One important thing visible from the call is the shift in payor mix. Historically, government business was a larger contributor for Yatharth, but now the company is consciously moving towards higher private insurance, cash and international patient mix. Management expects government business contribution to gradually reduce over the next few years, especially because newer hospitals are being built around premium catchments. The company also sounded extremely confident about expansion. Current operational plus announced capacity already takes the network beyond 3,200 beds, and management believes the 5,000-bed target may actually be achieved earlier than planned. The expansion strategy will remain largely acquisition-led (~70%), with focus on North Indian cities and micro-markets where healthcare infrastructure is still underserved. Another positive was cash generation and balance sheet strength. Despite aggressive expansion, the company ended FY26 with net cash position and strong operating cash flow conversion. Management also clarified that current expansion plans can largely be funded through internal accruals along with manageable debt. At the same time, there are still some things to monitor. This remains a fast-expanding hospital platform, so execution risk will naturally remain high. New hospitals need to ramp up smoothly, doctor onboarding becomes critical, and maintaining margins while scaling aggressively will be important. Also, a part of the historical business still has exposure to government schemes, though management is actively reducing this mix over time. Overall, Yatharth currently looks like one of the fastest-growing hospital platforms in North India. The company is benefiting from strong occupancy, improving ARPOB, premiumization of newer hospitals and aggressive but focused expansion across NCR and nearby clusters. The story now is moving beyond just capacity addition. If management continues executing well on acquisitions, improves payor mix, and successfully scales premium hospitals like Gurugram, Yatharth can gradually move from a mid-sized regional hospital chain to a much larger North India healthcare platform over the next few years. #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #Yatharth #healthcare #Hospitals

Triveni Turbine – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our views An industrial turbine company that is slowly becoming a broader energy-efficiency and rotating-equipment platform. Triveni is not just a steam turbine manufacturer. It operates in the sub-100 MW industrial steam turbine market, where turbines are used across: - Industrial captive power - Renewable power - Waste heat recovery - Biomass - Waste-to-energy - Sugar - Cement - Steel - Oil & gas - Chemicals - Paper - Distilleries The company is among the top global players in industrial steam turbines and has 6,000 installations across 80 countries. But the story is now changing. Triveni is trying to move from being a turbine supplier to a broader heat, power and energy-transition solutions company. Newer areas include: - CO2-based heat pumps - CO2-based chillers - Organic Rankine Cycle turbines - Geothermal turbines - MVR compressors - Utility-scale refurbishment - Rotating equipment aftermarket So the company is no longer just playing industrial capex. It is increasingly playing a role in energy efficiency, decarbonisation, renewables, and lifecycle services. Growth? Q4 was strong. - Revenue – ₹680 cr, up 26% YoY - Highest ever quarterly revenue - Export revenue – 60% of sales - Export revenue growth – 46% YoY For FY26: - Revenue – ₹2,181 cr, up 9% YoY - EBITDA – ₹527 cr - EBITDA margin – 24.2% - PBT before exceptional items – ₹490 cr - PAT – down 3% YoY So revenue growth came through, but bottom-line growth did not. PAT was impacted by a one-time wage-code-related exceptional charge of ~₹15.7 cr. But even excluding that, FY26 was not as strong as FY25 because margins compressed due to product mix, lower aftermarket contribution, NTPC strategic project execution and forex mark-to-market loss. Order book? Q4 order booking was healthy. - Total order booking – ₹754 cr, up 19% YoY - Export order booking – ₹516 cr, up 174% YoY - Exports contributed 69% of Q4 order booking - Aftermarket order booking grew 121% YoY and contributed ~50% of Q4 order booking - Closing order book stood at ₹2,054 cr, up 8% YoY. - Exports were 51% of the closing order book. So the order book is healthy, but not spectacular. Important nuance: Order book is higher than last year, but lower than the Q2 FY26 peak of ~₹2,220 cr. Management guidance – and have they delivered? This is mixed. 1. Management had warned early in the year that FY26 would be back-ended because Q1 was impacted by customer inspections, MRT delays and geopolitical disruptions. Delivered. Q4 helped offset a weak first half. 2. Management had guided that FY26 should still show growth despite lumpiness. Delivered on revenue. Revenue grew 9% YoY. 3. Management had expected Q4 order booking to be stronger than in the prior quarters. Delivered. Q4 order booking of ₹754 cr was meaningfully higher than Q3’s ₹391 cr. 4. Management’s confidence on margins was partly delivered. EBITDA margin stayed healthy at 24.2%, but declined from 25.8% in FY25. 5. Bottom-line growth was not delivered. PAT declined 3% YoY despite revenue growth. 6. Export momentum delivered strongly. Export revenue grew 30% in FY26 and contributed 58% of annual revenue vs 48% last year. 7. New product optionality is progressing, but not yet meaningful. Heat pumps, ORC, MVR and CO2 solutions are promising, but still early. So the scorecard is: - Revenue growth – delivered - Back-ended recovery – delivered - Q4 order booking recovery – delivered - Export growth – delivered - Margins – healthy but lower - PAT growth – missed - New products – promising, but early What changed? The export story got stronger. Triveni’s FY26 revenue was increasingly export-led. Export revenue grew 30% YoY and exports contributed 58% of overall revenue. Q4 export order booking was especially strong, with demand from Europe, Turkey and Southeast Asia. The US pipeline is also becoming more visible. Management said the product inquiry book is now ~18 GW, almost double last year, with North America alone at ~3 GW and India at ~7 GW. This matters because Triveni’s next leg of growth may not come only from India capex. It may come from a larger global energy and aftermarket cycle. Market backdrop This is not a simple “industry is growing fast” story. The global steam turbine market has actually declined over the last decade. Even the sub-100 MW industrial steam turbine market, where Triveni operates, has declined over time. But the mix is changing. Thermal renewable fuels like biomass, waste-to-energy and waste heat recovery have become a much larger part of the sub-100 MW market. This is where Triveni is positioned better. So the thesis is not “steam turbines are a secular growth market.” The thesis is: A strong player in a slow market can still compound if it gains share, expands geographies, enters higher-value niches and builds aftermarket annuity. Our verdict FY26 was not a clean year. - Q1 was weak. - H1 was weak. - Margins compressed. - PAT declined. But the exit run-rate is much better. Q4 had record revenue, strong export order booking, strong aftermarket order booking and improved order book. The company is now entering FY27 with: - ₹2,054 cr order book - Strong global inquiry pipeline - Improving export traction - Growing aftermarket opportunity - New product optionality - Asset-light model - Comfortable balance sheet The key question is whether Triveni can convert the inquiry book into actual orders without further margin dilution. What we like Export momentum is strong. Exports are now 58% of annual revenue and 51% of closing order book. The inquiry book has expanded materially. Product inquiry book at ~18 GW and North America at ~3 GW gives better medium-term visibility. Aftermarket order booking is improving. Q4 aftermarket order booking grew 121% YoY and contributed ~50% of total order booking. The company is moving into higher-value niches. Geothermal, ORC, CO2 heat pumps, MVR and rotating equipment refurbishment can expand the addressable market. The business remains asset-light. Management does not expect a large greenfield capex requirement in the near term. What we don’t like / watchouts FY26 profit growth was weak. Revenue grew 9%, but PAT declined 3%. Margins compressed. EBITDA margin fell from 25.8% in FY25 to 24.2% in FY26. Order book growth was modest. Closing order book was up 8% YoY, but lower than the Q2 peak. Quarterly lumpiness is rising. As Triveni moves into larger API, higher MW, strategic and export projects, quarterly dispatches and revenue recognition can become more volatile. Receivables spiked at year-end. Management says this is a timing issue because of the March-end billing, but receivable days still need monitoring. New products are still optionality, not base case. CO2 heat pumps, ORC and MVR are exciting, but meaningful revenue contribution may take time. Final view Triveni has moved from: “industrial steam turbine company” to “global heat & power solutions company with energy-transition optionality.” FY26 was a year of execution recovery rather than clean compounding. The core business remains strong. The export engine is improving. The aftermarket opportunity is getting larger. And the inquiry book gives comfort for FY27. But the bar is clear: - Convert inquiries into orders. - Restore margin trajectory. - Reduce receivable volatility. - Scale aftermarket. Prove that new products can become meaningful revenue streams. If Triveni delivers on these, it remains one of the better industrial energy-efficiency compounders from India. #Trinetra #TriveniTurbine #Investing #ConcallHighlights #ConcallNotes #CapitalGoods #EnergyTransition #IndustrialManufacturing #EquityResearch

Solar Industries – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our views An industrial explosives company that is rapidly becoming a defence global energetic materials platform. Solar is no longer just a mining explosives story. The company now has 3 engines: - Domestic industrial explosives - International explosives - Defence & aerospace The important change is the mix. FY26 revenue mix: - International – 39% - Defence – 27% - CIL – 9% - Non-CIL / Institutional – 12% - Housing & Infra – 12% - Others – 1% So defence international now contribute ~66% of revenue. This is where the quality of the business has changed. Growth? Q4 was very strong. - Revenue – ₹3,053 cr, up 41% YoY - EBITDA – ₹870 cr, up 59% YoY - EBITDA margin – 28.5% - PAT – ₹556 cr, up 61% YoY For FY26: - Revenue – ₹9,838 cr, up 30% - EBITDA – ₹2,750 cr, up 35% - EBITDA margin – 27.95% - PAT – ₹1,737 cr, up 35% This was the company’s highest-ever quarterly and annual performance. What changed? Defence has become the main story. Q4 defence revenue crossed ₹1,000 cr for the first time. FY26 defence revenue was ₹2,634 cr vs ₹1,355 cr last year — up 94%. International business also grew 32% YoY to ₹3,815 cr. Domestic mining was muted, but defence exports more than compensated. Order book? Order book stands at ₹21,300 cr . This gives strong visibility for the next leg of growth, especially in defence. Management guidance – delivered or missed? Mixed, but largely positive. 1. FY26 revenue target was ₹10,000 cr – marginal miss at ₹9,838 cr. 2. FY26 defence revenue target was ₹3,000 cr – missed at ₹2,634 cr. 3. EBITDA margin guidance was delivered/beaten – FY26 margin came at 27.95%. 4. Defence mix target of crossing 30% was not fully met for FY26 – defence closed at 27% of sales. 5. Order book build-up was strong – ₹21,300 cr order book now. 6. FY27 guidance is aggressive – ₹14,000 cr revenue, ₹4,500 cr defence revenue, current margin levels, and ₹2,050 cr capex. So the verdict is: - Revenue – almost delivered - Defence – missed vs guidance, but growth still very strong - Margins – delivered - Order book – delivered - FY27 guidance – very aggressive What we like The business mix is improving fast. Defence and international are now the real growth drivers. Margins are holding up despite scale-up. Even with higher employee cost, higher capex and new product investments, EBITDA margin stayed close to 28%. Defence has moved from optionality to core business. Solar is now present across Pinaka rockets, energetic materials, ammunition, loitering munitions, counter-drone systems and other strategic products. Exports are no longer a small add-on. Africa, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Southeast Asia and upcoming Australia expansion can keep international growth strong. The company is investing ahead of demand. Planned FY27 capex is ₹2,050 cr, after ₹2,700 cr invested over the last 2 years. What we don’t like / watchouts FY26 defence revenue missed the ₹3,000 cr target. This matters because the stock is increasingly getting valued as a defence compounder. FY27 guidance is a big ask. ₹14,000 cr revenue implies ~42% growth, and ₹4,500 cr defence revenue implies ~70% defence growth. Execution has to be very strong. Product timelines remain important. Bhargavastra is still in final development / trial stage, while 155mm complete round production is expected after the coupling facility is completed over the next few months. Debt and capex need monitoring. FY26 capex was ₹1,556 cr and net debt moved to ₹867 cr, though leverage remains comfortable at 0.32x net debt / EBITDA. Domestic mining is not exciting right now. CIL revenue declined and overall domestic mining demand was weak. Final view Solar has moved from: “mining explosives company” to “global explosives defence manufacturing platform.” FY26 was a strong year. But FY27 is the real test. The bar is now clear: - Deliver ₹14,000 cr revenue - Cross ₹4,500 cr defence revenue - Maintain ~28% EBITDA margin - Convert ₹21,300 cr order book Scale Pinaka, energetic materials and ammunition Prove Bhargavastra / 155mm / loitering munitions as larger revenue lines If management delivers FY27, Solar moves into a different league. If not, the stock remains exposed to the usual risks of aggressive guidance, defence execution timelines and capex-led scale-up. #Trinetra #SolarIndustries #Investing #Defence #ConcallHighlights #ConcallNotes #Pinaka #Ammunition #MakeInIndia #EquityResearch

Data Patterns – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our views A defence electronics company that is moving from components and subsystems to full-stack defence systems. Data Patterns is not a typical defence manufacturing story. It sits in the high-value electronics layer of defence — where the real moat is design capability, IP ownership, qualification history and system integration. The company works across: - Radars - Electronic Warfare - Communication systems - Avionics - Satellite systems - Test equipment - Strategic defence electronics The key point is that Data Patterns does a lot of the design, prototype, testing, qualification and manufacturing in-house. This is important because in defence electronics, owning the building blocks can materially improve margins and reduce dependence on foreign OEMs. FY26 revenue mix was: - Radar – 40.1% - Avionics – 27.7% - Electronic Warfare – 12.6% - FCS – 7.7% - AMC – 4.1% - Services & Others – 3.2% - ATE – 2.6% - Naval Systems – 1.9% - Communication – 0.1% So this is now a radar avionics EW-led business, with the company trying to move deeper into complete systems. Growth? Q4 was optically mixed but operationally strong. - Revenue – ₹344.9 cr, down 13% YoY but up 99% QoQ - Gross margin – 73% - EBITDA – ₹192.8 cr - EBITDA margin – 56% - PAT – ₹138.4 cr - PAT margin – 40% The YoY decline is not a structural issue. Q4 FY25 had a very high base, and execution timing in defence businesses is lumpy. But Q4 FY26 margins were exceptional because the revenue mix was largely in-house developed full systems with lower bought-out content. For FY26: - Revenue – ₹924.8 cr, up 30.6% YoY - EBITDA – ₹371 cr, up 34.9% YoY - EBITDA margin – 40.1% - PAT – ₹271.4 cr, up 22.3% YoY - PAT margin – 29% So the company has delivered a strong year with revenue growth ahead of guidance and margins at the top end of the guided band. Order book? This is where the story becomes interesting. Reported order book as of March 2026 was ₹926.5 cr. But management says the order book “as on date”, including negotiated orders, stands at ~₹2,062 cr — the highest in company history. FY26 order inflow was ~₹1,121 cr, up 216% YoY. Management also highlighted an additional ~₹1,900 cr of single-vendor contracts based on already supplied products, which can potentially convert during FY27. So FY27 starts with better visibility than FY26. Management guidance – and have they delivered? Mostly yes. 1. FY26 revenue growth guidance was 20–25% – delivered better at ~31%. 2. FY26 EBITDA margin guidance was 35–40% – delivered at ~40%. 3. Management had guided for stronger order inflows after a modest FY25 order book – delivered, with FY26 order inflow up 216%. 4. Management wanted to maintain a net debt-free status – delivered. Company remains debt-free with cash, bank and investments of ₹422.7 cr as of March 2026. 5. Export scale-up is still work in progress. Export order book was ~₹53 cr as on date, but management expects export revenue to improve from FY27 as complete system offerings mature. 6. Working capital improved but remains elevated. Cash conversion cycle reduced to 365 days from 428 days, but 365 days is still high and needs monitoring. So the scorecard is: - Revenue guidance – delivered - Margin guidance – delivered - Order inflow ramp-up – delivered - Net debt-free balance sheet – delivered - Exports – still early - Working capital – improved, but still high What changed? - The company is moving from “subsystem supplier” to “full systems provider.” - This is the most important strategic shift. - Management has repeatedly said that Data Patterns is trying to build complete radar, EW and communication systems using in-house reusable building blocks. - This matters because complete systems expand the total addressable market, improve export potential and allow the company to bid for larger strategic programs. - The company has also invested more than ₹131 cr in new product development, with products in radar, EW and communication systems at advanced stages of readiness. What are the big opportunities? Electronic Warfare is one. The company’s self-protection jammer pods for Indian fighter aircraft have been well received by the IAF and are moving towards the next step of flight testing. Management expects this to lead to medium-term revenue. Drone detection, spoofing and jamming is another. Data Patterns has repositioned some of its radar and ESM products for counter-drone applications. These are in advanced stages of development and can become a relevant revenue stream over the medium term. Exports are also becoming more serious. The company successfully developed and exported Transportable Precision Approach Radar to a European country, including site acceptance testing. This is important because exporting complete systems is a very different opportunity from exporting subassemblies. Long-term guidance Management continues to guide for: - 20–25% revenue growth over the next 2–3 years - EBITDA margin of 35–40% in FY27 - Strong order book pipeline of ₹2,000–4,000 cr over the next 24 months - Net debt-free status - Continued investments in products, technology and infrastructure This is not a hyper-growth guidance. It is a high-margin compounding guidance. Our verdict Data Patterns is one of the cleaner defence electronics stories. The company has real in-house IP, high margins, net cash balance sheet and exposure to radars, EW, avionics and strategic electronics. Q4 FY26 showed what the P&L can look like when the mix is favourable. But investors should not extrapolate 56% EBITDA margin every quarter. Margins will move depending on product mix, bought-out content and whether the company takes strategic low-margin contracts to build capability. What we like The company has a strong IP-led business model. High in-house design content is the reason margins are structurally better than many defence manufacturing peers. Order visibility has improved materially. ₹2,062 cr order book including negotiated orders ₹1,900 cr potential single-vendor contracts gives a strong FY27 setup. The balance sheet is clean. Debt-free with ₹422.7 cr cash, bank and investments. The company is moving up the value chain. From subsystems to full radar, EW and communication systems — this can meaningfully expand TAM. Exports can become a serious optionality. Transportable Precision Approach Radar export and successful site acceptance in Europe is a strong proof point. What we don’t like / watchouts Quarterly numbers are lumpy. Q4 was strong sequentially but down YoY. This is normal in defence, but forecasting quarterly revenue is difficult. Margins can swing sharply. Q2 had lower margins due to a strategic low-margin contract, while Q4 had exceptional margins due to favourable mix. Investors should focus on annual margins, not one quarter. Order timing is not fully in management’s control. Many orders are government-linked and can move by quarters. Working capital remains high. The cash conversion cycle improved, but 365 days is still elevated. Exports are still small. The export story is promising, but current export order book is only ~₹53 cr. It needs to scale meaningfully to become a separate growth leg. Final view Data Patterns has moved from: “defence electronics supplier” to “IP-led full systems defence electronics platform.” FY26 was a strong year. The company delivered on growth, delivered on margins, grew order inflows sharply and maintained a clean balance sheet. FY27 will be about converting the large pipeline into executable orders. Key monitorables: - Can ₹2,062 cr order book visibility convert into revenue? - Can ₹1,900 cr single-vendor pipeline fructify? - Can EBITDA margins stay in the 35–40% band? - Can exports scale beyond small order-book contribution? - Can EW, counter-drone and airborne radar opportunities move from development to production? If these happen, Data Patterns can remain one of the highest-quality defence electronics compounders in India. #Trinetra #DataPatterns #Investing #ConcallHighlights #ConcallNotes #Defence #DefenceElectronics #Radar #ElectronicWarfare #MakeInIndia #EquityResearch

HAL – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our views A defence PSU monopoly that is sitting on a massive order book — but execution, not demand, is the key question. HAL is India’s core aerospace manufacturing platform. It operates across: -Aircraft -Helicopters -Aero engines -ROH / spares -Avionics -Space hardware -Civil aero structures The business has two large engines: 1. Manufacturing – new aircraft/helicopters / engines 2. ROH – repair, overhaul, spares, and maintenance In FY26, ROH still dominated the mix, contributing ~60–62% of revenue, while manufacturing was ~28%. Management expects this mix to gradually move towards 50:50 as LCA, HTT-40, LCH and other manufacturing programs scale up. Growth? FY26 was steady, not explosive. - Revenue – ₹33,050 cr, up 7% YoY - EBITDA – ₹13,472 cr, up 11% YoY - PBT – ₹12,112 cr, up 12% YoY - Export revenue – ₹501 cr vs ₹400 cr YoY The company managed this despite delays in Tejas Mk1A and HTT-40, helped by ALH helicopters, AL-31FP engines, RD-33 engines and ROH revenues. Order book? This is the strongest part of the story. Order book has moved to ₹2,54,538 cr vs ₹1,89,302 cr last year. Fresh orders in FY26 were ₹97,028 cr, including: - 97 LCA Mk1A for IAF - 6 ALH Mk3 MR for Coast Guard - 8 DO-228 for Coast Guard - 10 ALH Dhruv NG for Pawan Hans - 2 Hindustan-228 for Guyana Management also expects ~₹90,000 cr of additional orders over the next two years, including ROH orders. So demand is not the issue. Execution is. Management guidance – delivered or missed? Mixed. 1. FY26 growth was positive, but not the big manufacturing-led inflection investors were waiting for. Revenue grew 7%. 2. Tejas Mk1A deliveries slipped. This is the biggest miss. Earlier expectations of Mk1A deliveries did not play out due to GE engine delays and remaining testing/refinement work. 3. Margins were delivered. Operating EBITDA stayed around 30%, and management continues to guide for a 30–31% EBITDA margin in FY27. 4. Order book guidance/visibility has been delivered. HAL now has one of the strongest order books in Indian defence. 5. FY27 guidance is 10–12% revenue growth, not 15–20%. So management is being cautious despite the huge order book. 6. FY27 delivery targets are now clear: around 15–20 LCA Mk1A, 20 HTT-40, 30–35 AL-31FP engines, balance 15 RD-33 engines, and pending ALH deliveries. What changed? The LCA Mk1A issue is now the central monitorable. HAL has received 6 GE engines, aircraft are flying, but final refinements and testing are still ongoing. Management expects the first deliveries to start by August / September FY27. Media reports also point to GE F404 engine delays as the biggest external bottleneck, with GE expected to ramp supplies over time. The concern is that this is not just an engine delay anymore. Management acknowledged that some testing/refinement work is still pending, though they remain confident of meeting the September deadline. Our verdict HAL is not a demand problem. It is an execution-timing story. - The order book is huge. - The customer is captive. - Margins are strong. - The balance sheet is comfortable. But the market will not reward only order wins forever. The next leg depends on aircraft deliveries. What we like Order visibility is exceptional. ₹2.5 lakh cr order book gives multi-year revenue visibility. Margins remain strong. Even with manufacturing ramp-up and supply chain issues, management is guiding for 30–31% EBITDA margin. ROH provides stability. ROH is less glamorous than new aircraft, but it gives HAL a recurring, high-visibility revenue base. Manufacturing can now scale. LCA Mk1A, HTT-40, LCH, ALH, AL-31FP and RD-33 provide a large execution runway. Capacity is being built. HAL plans ~₹12,000 cr capex by 2030 for LCA, HTT-40, LCH, LCA Mk2, GE-414 engines, IMRH, SSLV and aero-engine indigenisation. What we don’t like / watchouts - LCA Mk1A execution has disappointed. - This remains the biggest overhang. - GE engine supply is still a risk. - HAL expects 15–20 more engines, but past commitments have slipped. - Testing/software refinements are not fully closed yet. - Management says results are positive, but deliveries have not started. - Quarterly revenue can remain lumpy. - Manufacturing revenue is recognized on delivery, so delays can push revenue across quarters. - Working capital / inventory is rising. - HAL has built inventory for LCA, ROH, spares, Su-30 kits, AL-31FP, RD-33, LCH, ALH and HTT-40. This is necessary for future execution, but needs monitoring. Final view HAL has moved from: “Can they win orders?” to “Can they deliver aircraft on time?” FY26 was a decent year. But FY27 is the real test. The key monitorables: - LCA Mk1A deliveries by Aug / Sep - 15–20 LCA deliveries in FY27 - 20 HTT-40 deliveries - Sustaining 30–31% EBITDA margin - ₹90,000 cr order inflow over two years - GE engine supply cadence - Inventory converting into revenue If HAL delivers on LCA and HTT-40, the manufacturing growth cycle begins. If deliveries slip again, the stock remains an order-book story with execution anxiety. #tRINETRA #HAL #HindustanAeronautics #Investing #Defence #Aerospace #Tejas #LCA #ConcallHighlights #EquityResearch

MTAR Technologies – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our views A precision engineering company that is now moving from “project execution” to “multi-year capacity-led scale-up.” MTAR is not a regular manufacturing company. It operates in high-precision, high-entry-barrier segments where qualification cycles are long, and customer stickiness is high. The company supplies critical assemblies and components across: -Clean Energy -Civil Nuclear -Aerospace & Defence -Oil & Gas -Products & Others -Data Center Infrastructure Solutions The big shift in FY26 is this: MTAR is no longer dependent only on one or two execution cycles. It now has multiple growth engines firing together — fuel cells, nuclear, aerospace, oil & gas, and now AI data-center infrastructure. FY26 revenue mix was: -Clean Energy – Fuel Cells, Hydel & Others – ₹615 cr -Products & Others – ₹134 cr -Aerospace & Defence – ₹104 cr -Civil Nuclear – ₹24 cr Exports contributed 82% of FY26 revenue, which shows how global the business has become. Growth? Q4 was the best quarter in company history. -Revenue – ₹306 cr vs ₹183 cr YoY -EBITDA – ₹61.8 cr vs ₹34.2 cr YoY -EBITDA margin – 20.2% -PAT – ₹44.3 cr vs ₹13.7 cr YoY -PAT margin – 14.5% For FY26: -Revenue – ₹876 cr vs ₹676 cr in FY25 -EBITDA – ₹171 cr vs ₹121 cr -PAT – ₹94 cr vs ₹53 cr So FY26 was a strong year, with revenue up ~30%, EBITDA up ~42% and PAT up ~76%. The important part is that the second-half acceleration actually came through. Q2 was weak, but Q3 and Q4 completely changed the year. Order book? This is where the story becomes much stronger. MTAR closed FY26 with an order book of ₹2,582 cr. FY26 order inflow was ₹2,453 cr — the highest ever for the company. Q4 alone saw ₹482 cr of new orders. Order book mix: -Clean Energy – Fuel Cells, Hydel & Others – 51% -Civil Nuclear – 26% -Aerospace & Defence – 14% -Products & Others – 9% This gives much better visibility than what the company had one year ago. Management guidance – and have they delivered? This is mixed but mostly positive. 1. Initial FY26 guidance was 25% revenue growth – delivered. Revenue grew ~30%. 2. Q2 revised guidance was 30–35% growth – broadly delivered at ~30%, though at the lower end. 3. Q3 commentary suggested FY26 revenue could cross ₹900 cr – missed. Actual revenue was ₹876 cr. 4. FY26 closing order book guidance was ₹2,800 cr – missed marginally. Actual closing order book was ₹2,582 cr. Management said the gap was due to some nuclear and defence orders getting deferred to the current quarter, and said this does not impact the FY27 outlook. 5. EBITDA margin guidance was ~21% ±100 bps – missed slightly. FY26 EBITDA margin came at 19.5%. Management attributed this to gross margin pressure from input/freight costs and higher headcount due to expansion. 6. FY27 guidance has been upgraded sharply. Earlier, management had guided for 50% revenue growth in FY27. Now they have raised it to 80% ±5%, with an EBITDA margin of ~24%. So the scorecard is: -Initial FY26 revenue guidance – delivered -Revised FY26 revenue guidance – broadly delivered -₹900 cr FY26 revenue expectation – missed -₹2,800 cr order book guidance – missed marginally -FY26 margin guidance – slight miss -FY27 guidance – upgraded meaningfully What changed? The clean energy opportunity has become much larger. MTAR’s key customer in fuel cells is scaling capacity aggressively, driven by clean energy demand and AI data-center power requirements. MTAR has already commissioned the initial clean energy expansion and is now building additional capacity. Management said clean energy should contribute around 70% of FY27 revenue, which means the FY27 growth is heavily tied to this vertical. There is also a new data-center angle. MTAR has received initial export orders of ₹35 cr from SLB for components and assemblies for data center infrastructure solutions. Management said this opportunity can reach ₹400–500 cr over the next couple of years if execution goes well. This is important because it opens a new adjacent growth leg beyond fuel cells. Other growth engines Civil nuclear has finally become meaningful. The company has a nuclear order book of ₹650 cr and these orders are expected to be executed over the next 3–3.5 years. Management also expects more orders from refurbishment and new reactors during FY27. Aerospace is moving from development to production. Volume production is already in progress for certain customers like GKN Aerospace and Thales. MTAR has also completed the Z Adapter for Thales Alenia Space and is working on the IAI first articles. The company has also received an order for the Main Landing Gear Support Structure Test Box assembly for the AMCA program and is participating in other structural assembly tenders for fighter jet programs. Significant orders are also expected for actuator assemblies for LCA Tejas Mark IA. Oil & Gas is another upcoming leg. MTAR is setting up a greenfield facility for Weatherford and other oil & gas customers, expected to be commissioned by September 2026. Long-term guidance Management is now guiding for a very aggressive FY27. -FY27 revenue growth – 80% ±5% -FY27 EBITDA margin – ~24% -FY27 closing order book target – ~₹5,000 cr -Capex over FY27–FY28 – ₹250–300 cr -Debt-equity expected to remain around ~0.5x This is a big step-up. It means MTAR is no longer guiding for steady 25–30% growth. It is now guiding for a scale-change year. Our verdict Q4 FY26 is a clear inflection quarter. The company has moved from: “Can MTAR diversify beyond clean energy?” to “Can MTAR execute a very large order book without margin or working-capital slippage?” The opportunity is real. But FY27 guidance is aggressive. The company now has to execute on capacity expansion, manpower ramp-up, clean energy scale-up, nuclear deliveries, and aerospace volume production — all at the same time. What we like Order book visibility is the strongest in the company’s history. ₹2,582 cr closing order book and ₹2,453 cr FY26 inflows give a much stronger base for FY27. Clean energy is scaling faster than earlier expected. The AI data-center power requirement is becoming a real tailwind for fuel cells, and MTAR appears to be a key supply-chain partner. Cash flow and working capital improved sharply. Operating cash flow was ₹197 cr in FY26 vs ₹101 cr in FY25, and net working capital days reduced to 172 days from 267 / 278 days in the previous quarter commentary. Aerospace is moving from promise to production. The company is moving from first articles to volume production across multiple global customers. Civil nuclear gives long-duration visibility. ₹650 cr order book to be executed over 3–3.5 years provides a stable long-term revenue base. What we don’t like / watchouts FY27 guidance is very aggressive. 80% ±5% revenue growth is a big ask and leaves little room for execution delays. Margin guidance was missed in FY26. EBITDA margin came at 19.5% vs guided 21% ±100 bps. FY27 margin guidance of ~24% will need strong operating leverage and better product mix. Customer concentration remains a key risk. Clean energy is expected to contribute ~70% of FY27 revenue, so execution and demand from the key fuel-cell customer remain critical. Capex and debt are rising. Management indicated ₹250–300 cr capex over two years and expects debt-equity around 0.5x. This is manageable, but investors should track whether returns scale as planned. Working capital has improved, but can become volatile again. With high growth and large export orders, receivables, inventory and customer advances need close monitoring. Some guided orders slipped. The ₹2,800 cr FY26 order book target was missed due to deferred nuclear and defence orders. Management says this does not impact FY27, but it still highlights timing risk. Final view MTAR has moved from: “precision engineering company with lumpy growth” to “multi-vertical manufacturing platform with clean energy, nuclear and aerospace tailwinds.” FY26 was strong. Q4 was the inflection. FY27 is the real test. The key monitorables: -Can revenue grow 75–85%? -Can EBITDA margin move to ~24%? -Can order book reach ~₹5,000 cr? -Can clean energy scale without customer concentration risk? -Can nuclear and aerospace become large enough to balance the portfolio? -Can working capital stay under control during hyper-growth? If management delivers FY27, MTAR can move into a different earnings trajectory. If not, the stock remains exposed to the usual risks of high guidance, customer concentration and execution-heavy manufacturing. #Trinetra #MTAR #Investing #ConcallHighlights #ConcallNotes #CleanEnergy #FuelCells #Nuclear #Aerospace #Defence #DataCenters #EquityResearch

Senores Pharmaceuticals Ltd – Q4 FY26 / FY26 – 1st cut and our views Senores delivered a very strong FY26, with revenue growing ~62% YoY to ₹664 crore and PAT more than doubling to ₹122 crore. Q4 was also strong, with revenue at ₹190 crore, up 66% YoY, and PAT at around ₹32 crore, up 78% YoY. EBITDA for FY26 stood at around ₹200 crore, with margins improving to ~30%. The key takeaway is that Senores is scaling across multiple engines — regulated markets, emerging markets, India branded generics, CDMO/CMO, and recent acquisitions. The company has also given strong FY27 guidance of 30–40% revenue growth and 50–60% PAT growth, supported by product launches and order visibility. Regulated markets remain the main growth driver. FY26 regulated market revenue grew 75% to ₹427 crore, led by product portfolio expansion and stronger US execution. The company now has 51 approved ANDAs versus 22 last year, of which 20 are already launched and the remaining approved products are expected to launch over the next 6–8 quarters. The US business is becoming the biggest opportunity. Management indicated that its current approved portfolio has an accessible market opportunity of around $1 billion, and the company is building towards a much larger US revenue base over the next 3–4 years. This will come through our own products, acquired ANDAs, CDMO/CMO, Apnar, Choraya, and the Americin JV. Apnar Pharma is a major strategic acquisition. Senores acquired a 75% stake in Apnar, which gives it a USFDA-approved India manufacturing facility, along with UK MHRA and Health Canada approvals. Revenue contribution was small in Q4, but management expects Apnar to contribute ₹80–100 crore in FY27 and potentially ₹180–200 crore over the next 2–3 years. The American JV is another important US growth lever. It gives Senores access to US government procurement channels, including federal, Veterans Affairs, military programs and FSS tenders. Management expects around ₹70–80 crore revenue from this JV in FY27, with profitability broadly in line with the US business. Emerging markets are improving both in growth and profitability. FY26 revenue grew 20% to ₹145 crore, and Q4 EBITDA margin improved to around 18–19%. Management expects this margin level to sustain, with potential to move towards 20–21% as revenue scales. PIC/S approval is expected around June–July, which can open markets like South Africa and Vietnam. India's branded generics is still small but growing fast. Revenue grew nearly 5x to around ₹40 crore in FY26. The company has expanded its field force to around 120–130 people and expects this business to reach ₹60–70 crore in FY27. Over time, the field force may scale to around 200 people. CDMO/CMO remains an important part of the business. Management said the mix is broadly 52–53% own products and 47–48% CDMO/CMO. This segment helps absorb operating costs, improves plant utilization, and adds operating leverage. Margins have improved meaningfully. Q4 EBITDA margin was 32.7%, while FY26 EBITDA margin stood at around 30%. Management is guiding for a 29–31% EBITDA margin in FY27. The Apnar acquisition had some cost impact in Q4 without meaningful revenue, but this should normalize as shipments ramp up. Cash flow is improving, but working capital needs monitoring. FY26 operating cash flow stood at around ₹75 crore. Reported working capital days increased due to Apnar consolidation, but management said excluding Apnar, the cycle was around 104 days. Other financial assets / unbilled revenue also remain an area to track, as this relates to profit share income that gets realized over time. Capex will remain elevated. FY26 capex was around ₹230 crore, including ANDA acquisitions, while FY27 capex is expected at around ₹200 crore. Around ₹100 crore of IPO funds are earmarked for the OSD / sterile facility, with the balance for plant expansion and maintenance. Overall, Senores is emerging as a fast-growing pharma platform with a strong US focus, improving emerging market profitability, and a small but scaling India branded business. The company has delivered ahead of guidance and now has multiple growth levers in place. The main things to monitor are timely launch of the approved ANDAs, Apnar ramp-up, execution in the US front-end and Americin JV, working capital conversion, and the sustainability of 29–31% EBITDA margins. The right way to look at Senores today is as a high-growth pharma company moving from a niche regulated-market player to a broader global pharma platform. If the company executes its ANDA launches and US expansion well, growth can remain strong. But given the pace of acquisitions and working capital build-up, cash conversion and execution discipline will be key monitorables. #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #Senores #healthcare #Pharmaceuticals

Thyrocare Technologies Ltd – Q4 FY26 / FY26 – 1st cut Thyrocare delivered a strong FY26, with consolidated revenue growing 21% YoY to ₹829 crore. EBITDA grew 38% to ₹262 crore and PAT grew 81% to ₹163 crore. Q4 was also strong, with revenue up 20% YoY to ₹224 crore, EBITDA up 41%, and PAT up 128%. The key takeaway is that Thyrocare is growing well while keeping the business asset-light and cash generative. The core pathology business remains the main driver, growing 22% in FY26, while radiology declined 6% due to the planned consolidation of centres. Growth was led by both franchise and partnership channels. The franchise business grew 18% in FY26 and 21% in Q4, supported by a wider network of over 10,800 active franchisees. Partnerships grew 32% in FY26, driven by health-tech and insurance customers. Q4 partnership growth looked lower at 23%, but management said this was due to a one-off high base last year. Operationally, the business continues to scale. Thyrocare processed 210 million tests and served 19.2 million patients in FY26. Q4 sample processing stood at 80.3 lakh. Turnaround time improved to 3.43 hours from sample receipt, and complaints remained very low at 3.06 per million tests. The company added seven new labs during the year, taking the India lab network to 40 labs, along with one lab in Tanzania. Management highlighted that the model remains highly asset-light, with franchise-owned stores and a centralized logistics-led lab network. Maintenance capex is expected to remain around ₹40 crore. Specialty testing is the next growth area. Thyrocare has added allergy testing, genomics, histopathology, HPLC, coagulation tests, NGS and BioFire PCR. Genomics has started with NIPT and will be scaled gradually. Management expects the specialty to be small in FY27, but meaningful over a 2–3 year period. Margins remain healthy. Q4 EBITDA margin stood at 34%, while FY26 reported EBITDA margin was around 32% and the normalized margin was around 34%. Management expects margins to remain broadly stable, as operating leverage will be reinvested into growth, specialty, field teams and new capabilities. Aarogyam continues to grow in line with the company, while Jaanch is gaining traction and grew 66% YoY in Q4, though it is still only around 2% of pathology revenue. This shows early movement beyond routine preventive testing into more disease-specific and curative use cases. The business also remains financially strong, with zero debt and net cash/investments of over ₹230 crore as of March 2026. Operating cash flow after tax was ₹203 crore for FY26. The board also recommended a final dividend of ₹7 per share. Overall, Thyrocare remains a strong diagnostics platform with scale, low-cost positioning, fast TAT and a large B2B/franchise network. The main things to monitor are execution in specialty testing, growth in insurance and partnerships, franchise productivity, and whether margins stay stable as the company invests for the next phase of growth. #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #Thyrocare #healthcare

Pace of Growth Why do we say, that Good times never last They did not last, even for the King of Good Times Investing across small or midcaps have crated this narrative that multibaggers are easy to disover, hold and nurture and see through Some potential investors we talk to @TrinetraAsset , whether we are discussiong our model portfolios or individual stock research - tell us they expect multibaggers 5 years out We find it funny because the future is uncretain , unpredictable and definitely not on an excel sheet Intrinsic value, a concept washed down your throat by professors and finance magazine peddlers is a broken word. Intrinsic value of a stock today for FY 30 or FY 35 is basically your abiliity to chart out all the cash that the business will at will generate over the next 5 to 10 years, use a discount rate and get it back to its Present value The only problem , is neither the promoter knows the shape of his company 10 years out , neither the merchant bankers who bought the issue and defintely not you. Our view on looking at companies is to follow earnings , intead of predicting them Continue investing in companies which exhibit and deliver high pace of earnings growth and exit those who dont. ( earnings momentum, not price momentum - I will one day take a seperate session on why Technical analysis is a dastardly and stupid thing to do ) Instead of considering investing outcomes as certainities , we consider them as variables, say in a Bayes probability theorem Probaility of a ( Multibagger Stock A ) = Prior Knowledge of the event ( Stock A ) New evidence that either adds to or refutes Prior knowledge The fact that , in the last 10 years only 150 odd cos out of the 4500 companies were able to cross from the 1000 cr to 5000 cr market cap says, that our starting probability itself is 5% tops and not what people assume. Not to be a pessimist here, we look for asymmetrical returns but not through single bets and single mindedness . Look out for companies doing better than others, and continue backing them as long as they continue outperforming ( in numbers) Markets mimic life very well - The world only cares about winners. If Indias richest man, circa 2008 and bankrupt today - couldnt map his own cash flows - Aap or hum toh kya hi he. hashtag#investing

Vikram Solar Ltd – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our view A strong module-scale year, but the real story is now shifting to backward integration Vikram Solar delivered a strong Q4 and FY26, with the quarter marking a clear scale-up in execution. FY26 revenue stood at Rs 4,802 cr, up 40% YoY, EBITDA at Rs 917 cr, up 86% YoY, and PAT at Rs 470 cr, up 236% YoY. Q4 revenue was the highest ever at Rs 1,453 cr, up 31% QoQ and 22% YoY, while EBITDA stood at Rs 235 cr and PAT at Rs 110 cr. Operationally, too, the quarter was strong, with 971 MW production, 999 MW sales, and 1.9 GW of order booking, again the highest quarterly order intake for the company. The first read is positive. This is no longer a small module manufacturer trying to ride a policy cycle. Vikram Solar is now attempting to become a large domestic integrated solar platform. The company has already built 9.5 GW module capacity, is moving to 15.5 GW, and is now adding cells, wafers/ingots, and BESS. The opportunity is large, but the model is also becoming more capital-intensive. So the stock debate from here will not just be about revenue growth; it will be about execution, per-watt margins, and balance-sheet discipline. What stood out in Q4 The biggest positive was scale. FY26 sales volume rose to 3.34 GW from 1.9 GW in FY25, while production increased to 3.22 GW. Q4 was the first quarter where the company touched nearly 1 GW of quarterly production and sales, giving a better sense of the operating run-rate going into FY27. The order book is also strong. Vikram Solar exited FY26 with an 8.2 GW order book, of which 87% is domestic and 13% export. Segmentally, the book is largely IPP-led at 69%, with C&I at 13%, government at 7%, and EPC at 11%. Importantly, the reported order book excludes over 1 GW distribution orders, 1.5 GW C&I non-DCR orders under renegotiation for DCR modules, and a 0.6 GW US order where the project was shelved. In our view, this makes the reported order book cleaner, though it also highlights that part of the demand mix is still moving around as policy shifts from non-DCR to DCR. Margins are strong, but FY26 margins should not be blindly extrapolated This is the most important nuance. FY26 margins expanded sharply, with EBITDA margin improving to 19% versus 14% in FY25. However, Q4 EBITDA margin was 16%, down from 19% in Q3FY26 and Q4FY25. Gross margin also moderated to 28% in Q4 versus 31% in Q3. Management’s explanation was fairly clear. Realizations improved by around 60 paise/Wp QoQ, but costs moved up by around 80 paise/Wp, mainly due to raw material pressures. The company also called out higher EVA and aluminium costs, higher silver prices, and the impact of China’s export VAT rebate removal on cell costs. So our reading is this: absolute EBITDA should grow in FY27 because volumes are likely to rise meaningfully, but per-watt margins may normalize. Management indicated Q4 EBITDA/Wp at around Rs 2.35, while FY27 non-DCR volumes could deliver Rs 1.75–2.0/Wp, and DCR volumes could be slightly better at Rs 2.0–2.5/Wp. This means the direction of earnings is positive, but the quality of delivery will depend on whether volume growth offsets margin moderation. Demand environment remains very supportive The domestic demand backdrop is the strongest part of the story. India added around 45 GW of solar in FY26, taking cumulative solar capacity to around 150 GW. Management also highlighted that peak power demand is expected to rise sharply over the next decade, with solar capacity required to scale to more than 500 GW and BESS requirement to more than 320 GWh by FY35/FY36. Near-term demand visibility is also strong. Management spoke about more than 80 GW of grandfathered non-DCR demand over the next two years, around 28 GW of live utility-scale DCR tenders, and around 25 GW of inherent DCR demand from C&I, PM-KUSUM, and rooftop segments. This supports the FY27 execution plan, where the company expects roughly 75% non-DCR and 25% DCR execution. Backward integration is the core thesis now The company’s strategy is very clear: module first, then cell, then wafer/ingot. Module capacity is currently 9.5 GW and should move to 15.5 GW once the 6 GW Gangaikondan module plant commissions. The first module output is expected in June 2026. The bigger step is cells. Vikram Solar’s 9 GW TOPCon cell plant is on track, with first cell output expected around December 2026 / early January 2027, sequential commissioning through March 2027, and ramp-up during FY28. A further 3 GW cell capacity is planned later, taking the total cell capacity to 12 GW. Management is positioning this as TOPCon-plus technology with efficiency improvement versus the industry baseline. The board has also approved around Rs 3,726 cr capex for a 6 GW wafer and ingot facility at Gangaikondan, as phase one of a 12 GW roadmap. This is expected to be commissioned by FY29/FY30 and is aimed at reducing dependence on imported wafers/ingots. BESS is a large optionality, but still early BESS is another important leg of the strategy. Vikram Solar is targeting 15 GWh BESS capacity by FY30, with the first 5 GWh cell-to-pack / assembly facility scheduled around FY27 and integrated battery cell manufacturing planned later. The company has also launched its VION battery solutions brand and secured a 100 MWh order from a prominent player. The opportunity is large because solar plus storage is becoming central to RTC/FDRE tenders, grid balancing, C&I demand, and data-centre power requirements. But from an analyst lens, BESS should be treated as an emerging option rather than a near-term earnings driver. Execution, technology tie-ups, localization, and policy incentives will decide how much value this business can create. Global outlook: India is the core market; exports are optional, not the main thesis Globally, the environment is moving in favour of local manufacturing and supply-chain security. China’s export rebate changes have increased near-term cost pressure, while trade restrictions are making cross-border solar flows more complicated. The US market, in particular, has become difficult. The investor presentation flags combined AD/CVD duties of around 250% on Indian solar cells/modules, and management said Indian exports to the US have almost gone to negligible levels. Vikram Solar is still carrying some US export orders with reputed IPPs, but execution will depend on building a traceable and compliant non-China supply chain, including potential cell sourcing from North Africa. Management also said the company is exploring the EU, Australia, and the Middle East. Our view is that export optionality exists, but the investment case should be built primarily on India demand, DCR transition, and backward integration, not on a sharp US export recovery. The balance sheet is healthy today, but capex intensity will rise The balance sheet is currently comfortable. Debt/equity declined to 0.03x in FY26 from 0.19x in FY25, and management highlighted no long-term debt, low working-capital net debt, and a working capital cycle improvement from 82 days to 44 days. However, this is before the full impact of the next capex cycle. The company has guided for disciplined funding with DSCR above 2.5x and net debt/equity below 1.5x even at peak debt. That is reassuring, but not risk-free. The shift from module assembly to cells, wafers/ingots, and BESS will make execution and capital allocation much more important than in the past. What we like We like the scale-up in production and sales, the strong order book, the domestic demand tailwind, and the fact that the company is moving in the right direction on integration. Vikram Solar has brand recall, a wide distribution network, large IPP relationships, and a 20-year operating history, which should help as DCR demand broadens into rooftop, KUSUM, and C&I. What we do not like Margins are already showing some pressure despite strong volumes. FY27 may see higher absolute EBITDA, but lower EBITDA/Wp versus Q4FY26. The capex roadmap is ambitious, and execution risk rises materially as the company moves into cells, wafers/ingots, and BESS. Export visibility is also weaker, especially in the US, and policy dependence remains high. Our verdict Vikram Solar’s Q4FY26 is a strong first cut. The company has delivered scale, cleaned up its balance sheet, and entered FY27 with a large order book and strong domestic demand visibility. However, this is not a simple “margins will keep expanding” story. The next phase is about converting module scale into full-stack manufacturing. That can create a stronger and more defensible business, but it also brings capex, execution, and technology risk. For now, our view is positive, but with one clear caveat: the stock should be seen as a high-growth domestic solar integration story, not just a high-margin module story. The key monitorables over the next 12–18 months will be FY27 volume delivery, EBITDA/Wp stability, DCR ramp-up, timely cell commissioning, and discipline on leverage. #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #Vikramsolar #Solar #Industry

Kansai Nerolac Paints – Q4 FY26 Business Overview Business Overview Kansai Nerolac operates across two major segments: Decorative Paints – wall paints, waterproofing, premium emulsions and wood finishes Industrial Paints – automotive coatings, powder coatings and performance coatings The company continues to leverage its strong industrial leadership while gradually strengthening its decorative portfolio through premium products, project business and service-led offerings. Key Characteristics - Strong leadership position in industrial and auto coatings - Technology-driven business supported by Japanese parentage - Growing focus on premium decorative products - Well-established dealer, painter and project network - Strong brand recall and legacy positioning Growth Drivers Decorative Segment: - Premium product launches such as self-cleaning and heat-resistant paints - Strong growth in project business - Expansion in Tier-2 and Tier-3 markets - Rising contribution from premium and differentiated products Industrial Segment: - Healthy passenger vehicle demand - Strong growth in the 2W/3W segment - Increasing usage of specialized coatings in automobiles - Stable demand from infrastructure and engineering sectors Management Commentary Management commentary remained constructive and more disciplined compared to earlier quarters. Key highlights: - Demand environment has improved over the last few months - Decorative business is witnessing a gradual recovery - Focus remains on profitable growth rather than aggressive market share expansion - Multiple price hikes have already been implemented to offset raw material inflation - Competitive intensity remains high but industry pricing discipline is improving Management clearly emphasized: “There is no point in chasing market share at any cost.” Outlook Positive Factors: - Continued infrastructure spending - Healthy auto demand - Premiumization trend supporting realizations - Potential shift from unorganized to organized players during inflationary periods Key Risks: - Crude oil and raw material inflation - West Asia geopolitical tensions - Rupee depreciation - Supply chain disruptions Management Guidance - EBITDA margin aspiration maintained at 13–14% - Additional price hikes may be taken if inflation persists - Demand outlook remains stable across decorative and industrial segments Strategy The company’s strategy is centered around: - Premiumization - Improving profitability and product mix - Expanding projects and influencer ecosystem - Strengthening retail presence through Paint Plus Zones - Selective market share gains in focused geographies - Key Observations What We Like ✔ Strong industrial coatings franchise ✔ Improving premium product mix ✔ Better pricing discipline ✔ Gradual margin improvement visible ✔ More focused and balanced growth strategy What We Don’t Like ✘ Decorative business still lags larger peers in scale ✘ Competitive intensity remains elevated ✘ Margin profile below industry leaders ✘ Earnings remain sensitive to crude/raw material volatility Our View Kansai Nerolac Paints appears to be entering a more disciplined and stable growth phase. The company is prioritizing profitability, premiumization and execution quality over aggressive volume chasing. Its strong industrial business provides stability, while decorative premiumization and project expansion can gradually improve growth quality and margins over the medium term. ***Not Invested*** #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #KansaiNerolac #Paint #

ACME Solar Holdings Ltd – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our view A storage-led renewable IPP (Independent Power Producer) story, now moving from plain solar capacity addition to peak-power monetisation ACME delivered a strong FY26, with consolidated revenue at ₹2,507 cr, up 59% YoY, EBITDA at ₹2,265 cr, up 61% YoY, and PAT at ₹498 cr, almost doubling YoY. Q4 was also healthy, with revenue of ₹705 cr, EBITDA of ₹636 cr and PAT of ₹138 cr. The headline numbers are strong, but the real story this quarter is not just reported growth; it is the company’s early move into large-scale BESS monetisation. ACME has now commissioned ~2.3 GWh of BESS, which is already generating ~₹2.2 cr/day of net realisation through merchant and short-term peak-power contracts. What stood out in the quarter The biggest positive is that ACME is no longer only a solar IPP with long-term PPAs. It is becoming a storage-backed renewable platform. Operational generation capacity now stands at ~2,990 MW, while total portfolio is 8,071 MW with ~17 GWh of planned BESS. Out of this, 6,270 MW is PPA-signed, which gives reasonable revenue visibility, while the BESS piece gives upside from peak-power arbitrage. The company also won 301 MW FDRE from SECI during Q4, taking FY26 project additions to ~1.4 GW. Operationally, generation was up 14% YoY in Q4 to 1,720 MUs and up 61% for FY26 to 6,464 MUs. CUF was 26.9% in Q4 versus 27.9% last year, partly because of radiation/curtailment and planned grid shutdown issues, but FY26 CUF still improved to 25.9%. Plant availability remained strong at 99% , which is important for an IPP where operating discipline directly converts into cash flow. BESS is the biggest change in the investment case The 2.3 GWh BESS commissioning is the key milestone. Management indicated that the BESS is running at 88–90% round-trip efficiency and is currently monetising peak/non-peak price arbitrage. Importantly, management said there was almost negligible BESS contribution in Q4 because the assets came in phases, especially towards March, so the full run-rate impact should start reflecting more clearly from FY27. This changes how ACME should be viewed. Earlier, the business was mainly about contracted solar generation. Now, there is a second layer: early BESS deployment using existing transmission infrastructure, monetising merchant/short-term opportunities before the linked RE projects fully come onstream. The opportunity is large, but the risk is also higher because merchant spreads, battery degradation, dispatch strategy and regulation will now matter more than in a simple fixed-tariff solar IPP. Financial quality is good, but EBITDA needs to be read carefully Reported EBITDA margin is very high at ~90%, but this includes other income. Q4 other income stood at ₹157 cr, including FD interest, amortisation of deferred revenue, hedging gains of ₹64 cr, and other miscellaneous income. So while the operating business is clearly profitable, investors should not blindly capitalise the reported EBITDA without separating recurring power income from non-core or treasury/hedging-related items. PAT growth in Q4 was only 13% YoY despite 30% EBITDA growth, mainly because finance cost and depreciation are rising as the asset base expands. That is normal for a fast-scaling renewable IPP, but it means the market will increasingly focus on whether new assets and BESS can earn returns above the higher debt load. Balance sheet: stronger access to funding, but leverage is rising ACME has done well on financing. During FY26, it tied up over ₹15,000 cr debt for under-construction projects and refinanced ~₹3,300 cr of operational debt, reducing interest cost by ~150 bps. The weighted average cost of debt for operational projects is ~8.4%, and ~2.2 GW of operational projects carry an AA-/Stable rating. The flip side is leverage. Net debt has increased from ₹7,507 cr to ₹12,830 cr, with CWIP net debt also rising as the growth pipeline expands. Net debt/TTM EBITDA improved to 3.9x from 4.4x, but net debt/net worth is now 2.5x. This is still manageable for an asset-backed renewable IPP, but execution delay or weaker merchant BESS spreads can quickly affect return expectations. Working capital has become a clear positive DSO has improved sharply to 14 days from 42 days in FY25 and 181 days in FY23. This is not just a one-off collection benefit; management linked it to a structural shift towards central offtakers, where payments are faster, and cash discounts are taken. Central offtakers are 67% of the operational portfolio and are expected to rise to 84% of the total portfolio. This materially improves cash conversion and reduces the historical discom-payment risk associated with renewable IPPs. The regulatory and sector backdrop is supportive India’s power demand backdrop remains favourable. Management highlighted that India touched a record peak electricity demand of 256 GW in April 2026, with April consumption up 8.9%. FY26 renewable additions were ~55 GW, taking cumulative renewable capacity to 283 GW, while non-fossil fuel generation share reached ~29%. Regulation is also moving in ACME’s favour. MNRE has clarified that BESS charged from conventional power under FDRE bids can sell power in merchant mode without buyer NOC until the corresponding RE project is commissioned. CTU is processing BESS connectivity under ROFR, with 36 months of grid charging allowed from the GNA effective date. CERC has also proposed SCOD timeline relief for delayed transmission projects. These measures support ACME’s strategy of early BESS deployment and monetisation. Global outlook: the direction is clearly towards solar-plus-storage Globally, the renewables cycle remains strong. IEA’s 2026 review notes that global renewable capacity additions reached a record ~800 GW in 2025, with solar contributing 75%, while battery storage was the fastest-growing power technology with additions up ~40% to almost 110 GW. Solar PV generation rose by 600 TWh in 2025 and met around 70% of global electricity generation growth. IRENA’s 2026 capacity data also points in the same direction: global renewable capacity additions were ~692 GW in 2025, with solar PV contributing ~510 GW and wind ~159 GW. For ACME, the implication is clear: plain renewable generation is no longer enough; the next leg of value creation will come from storage, firm/dispatchable RE, and the ability to supply peak power reliably. What we like We like the - scale-up in operating capacity - the early BESS commissioning - the sharp improvement in receivables - the lower refinancing cost. ACME also has a strong project pipeline, land/connectivity visibility and a portfolio increasingly tilted towards central offtakers. The BESS strategy, if executed well, can lift returns and make ACME more differentiated than a plain solar IPP. What we do not like - Leverage is rising - A large part of the future story depends on execution of ~5.1 GW under-construction capacity and ~17 GWh of BESS. - Reported EBITDA includes other income, so headline margins need adjustment. Merchant BESS economics are attractive today, but they are not risk-free; spreads, regulation, degradation, battery supply chain and transmission availability will decide how much of the current run-rate is sustainable. Our verdict ACME’s Q4 FY26 first cut is positive. The company is moving from a contracted solar IPP to a storage-led renewable platform, and that transition is visible in the numbers as well as the strategy. The stock should not be viewed only as a solar capacity-addition story anymore. The debate from here will be around BESS monetisation, project execution and leverage discipline. If ACME can deliver on the under-construction pipeline while sustaining healthy BESS spreads, earnings growth can remain strong. But given the rising debt and merchant exposure, the market will demand proof of execution, not just portfolio announcements. #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #ACMEsolar #Solar #Industry

Vijaya Diagnostic Centre Ltd – Q4 FY26 / FY26 – 1st cut Vijaya Diagnostic delivered a strong FY26, with revenue crossing ₹800 crore. FY26 revenue grew 19.5% YoY to ₹814 crore, EBITDA grew 23.3% to ₹337 crore, and PAT stood at ₹173 crore. Q4 was even stronger, with revenue growth of 26.6%, EBITDA growth of 38.7%, and PAT growth of 37.5%. EBITDA margin improved to 43.5% in Q4, supported by operating leverage and faster breakeven of new centres. The key takeaway is that Vijaya continues to execute well without compromising margins. It remains a largely B2C diagnostics business, with B2C contributing ~92% of revenue. Its integrated pathology plus radiology model remains the main differentiator, with radiology contributing ~37% of Q4 revenue. Growth was mainly volume-led. Q4 test volume grew ~18.5% YoY, while the remaining growth came from better test mix. Revenue per test stood at ₹488 and revenue per footfall at ₹1,808. Hyderabad continues to surprise positively despite being a mature market. Management indicated that Hyderabad grew around 20% in Q4 and expects double-digit growth to continue over the next 2–3 years, supported by brand strength, wider presence, and new pockets opening up in the city. New geographies are also improving. Pune, through PH Diagnostics, grew ~16% YoY in Q4, with footfall growth of around 15%. Bangalore is seeing good traction, with Yelahanka already breaking even and HSR close to breakeven. The company is also setting up a large flagship centre in Bangalore with high-end PET CT and MRI capabilities. West Bengal is scaling well too, with two centres breaking even in less than nine months. For FY27, Vijaya plans to add 4–5 hubs and 10–12 spokes. It is also setting up a fully automated lab in Punjagutta, Hyderabad, which should improve turnaround time and productivity. FY27 capex guidance is ₹140–150 crore, largely for new centres, the automated lab, and replacement capex. Margins remain the biggest strength. FY26 EBITDA margin stood at 41.4%, and management remains confident of sustaining 40% margins even while investing in new centres, technology, talent, and genomics. The business benefits from operating leverage, as many costs are fixed and margins improve as volumes ramp up. Wellness is becoming an important growth driver. Packages usually include both pathology and radiology, and demand is coming from both retail and corporate customers. Retail wellness has better realization, while corporate wellness can be more price-sensitive. Technology investments are also picking up. Vijaya is working on CRM, ERP, AI-led radiology tools, data security, and digital marketing. AI is still early, but the company is taking a gradual approach after proper validation. Genomics is also being introduced, though management sees it as a long-term opportunity rather than a near-term revenue driver. Competition from hospitals and online players appears manageable. Management believes Vijaya’s advantage lies in customer experience, affordable pricing, proximity, and availability of both pathology and radiology under one roof. Hospital pricing is typically higher, while online players have not had a meaningful impact so far. Overall, Vijaya remains a high-quality diagnostics company with strong execution, healthy growth, and best-in-class margins. The company is now moving from being mainly a Hyderabad/AP-Telangana player to a larger multi-cluster diagnostics platform across Pune, Bangalore, and West Bengal. The main things to monitor are the pace of ramp-up in new geographies, capex intensity, and whether margins stay above 40% as expansion accelerates. If Vijaya can replicate its dense hub-and-spoke model outside its core markets, it can continue to be a strong long-term compounder in the diagnostics space. #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #Vijaya #Healthcare #labs #Industry

Radico Khaitan Ltd – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our views A premiumisation-led spirits story where the numbers are finally catching up with the brand investments Radico delivered a very strong FY26, and Q4 was a clean closing quarter. Net revenue in Q4 stood at Rs 1,503.7 cr, up 15.3% YoY, EBITDA was Rs 286.3 cr, up 64% YoY, and total comprehensive income was Rs 176.5 cr, almost 2x YoY. For the full year, net revenue crossed Rs 6,050 cr, EBITDA crossed Rs 1,018 cr, and total comprehensive income came in at Rs 600 cr, up 76% YoY. The Board also recommended a Rs 9/share dividend versus Rs 4 last year, along with a minimum 20% payout policy. This is no longer just a volume growth story. The bigger point is that Radico’s premiumisation strategy is now showing up in margins, cash flows and return ratios. What stood out The key highlight was the Prestige & Above portfolio. In Q4, P&A volumes grew 27.9% YoY to 4.35 mn cases, while overall IMFL volume grew only 4%, clearly showing the mix shift. For FY26, P&A volumes grew 28.5% to 16.7 mn cases, and P&A now contributes more than 70% of IMFL revenue. That is the real story of the quarter. Radico is not just selling more cases; it is selling better cases. Margins were the biggest positive Q4 gross margin improved to 48%, up 453 bps YoY, while EBITDA margin expanded to 19%, up 565 bps YoY. Full-year EBITDA margin improved to 16.8%, up 305 bps. Management attributed this to better product mix, benign raw material costs and operating leverage. The important nuance is that management is not calling this a one-off. They guided for another 120–125 bps EBITDA margin expansion in FY27, helped by state price increases worth around 60 bps and premiumisation benefit of more than 200 bps, which should offset cost pressure. Premium brands are doing the heavy lifting The brand commentary was strong. Magic Moments crossed 8.6 mn cases and is now around Rs 1,500 cr in sales value. After Dark grew over 60% and crossed 3.1 mn cases. Royal Ranthambore grew over 50%, and the broader luxury portfolio delivered Rs 475 cr in sales value. The white spirits opportunity is also becoming interesting. Management highlighted that white spirits are only around 4.5% of the Indian market versus 28–29% globally, and believes Magic Moments and its new “Flavours of India” range can be a key growth driver. The growth outlook remains healthy Management guided for 20% volume growth in Prestige & Above in FY27 and 25% value growth in the luxury portfolio from the FY26 base of Rs 475 cr. The company is not planning too many new launches immediately; the focus is more on scaling recent launches such as Rampur Virasat, Spirit of Kashmyr, new Magic Moments flavours, and later a tequila under the D’YAVOL platform. This is the right approach, in our view. After several launches, the company now needs distribution depth, on-trade execution and repeat consumption, rather than just more products. The balance sheet is no longer a concern Net debt reduced by around Rs 329 cr during the year to about Rs 244 cr, and management expects the company to become net debt-free by H1 FY27. The improvement is supported by higher profitability, better cash generation and selective capex. Capacity also does not look like a bottleneck. Around 60–65% of capacity is outsourced through tie-up/lease arrangements, while 30–35% is handled in-house. FY27 capex is expected at Rs 150–175 cr, mainly for internal expansion and optimisation. Management also clarified that Radico procures the raw material for tie-up units, which reduces supply-chain dependence on vendors. What we like Radico is executing the premiumisation play well. Growth is coming from the right categories, margins are expanding, brand investments are paying off, and the balance sheet is improving. The company has also built a credible luxury portfolio rather than relying only on one or two legacy brands. The most encouraging part is that the margin improvement is backed by mix and scale, not just cost cuts. What we do not like The business is still highly exposed to state-level policy changes. Q4 regular volumes were weak because of a high base in Andhra Pradesh and policy changes in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Maharashtra’s MML policy has also hurt IMFL industry volumes, though Radico is now participating through its JV. There are also input-cost risks. Management called out West Asia-related uncertainty and possible supply-chain implications. Glass inflation has already been seen, though management believes premiumisation and pricing can offset the pressure. One more point: Radico does not currently have a meaningful low-alcohol/RTD plan. Management’s answer was that Gen Z is moving towards better-quality premium spirits and white spirits, but no low-alcohol launch is planned as of now. This may not hurt near-term numbers, but it is worth watching. Our verdict Radico’s Q4 and FY26 numbers are strong, but more importantly, the quality of growth has improved. The company is moving from a broad IMFL player to a more premium, brand-led spirits platform. The first cut is clearly positive. Revenue growth is healthy, margins are expanding, debt is coming down, and the P&A portfolio has enough momentum to support FY27 growth. The key debate now is not whether Radico can grow. It is whether the company can sustain this pace of premium growth while managing state-level policy volatility and input-cost pressure. For now, we would view Radico as a premiumisation-led compounding story with improving earnings quality, rather than just a liquor volume growth story. #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #Radigokhaitan #Beverages #IMFL #Industry

Marico Ltd- Q4FY26- 1st cut and Our Views Marico Limited is a leading consumer goods company focused on everyday products like coconut oil, hair oils, edible oils, foods, wellness, and premium personal care. Its key brands include Parachute, Saffola, Value Added Hair Oils (VAHO), Beardo, Plix, Just Herbs, and other digital-first brands. The company has a strong presence in India along with international operations across Bangladesh, Vietnam, MENA, South Africa, and other markets. The business is gradually transforming from a commodity-linked coconut oil company into a diversified FMCG and premium consumer products company with higher margins and stronger growth drivers. Key Characteristics - Strong market leadership in core categories like coconut oil and hair oils - Wide rural and urban distribution network - Strong brand portfolio with deep consumer trust - Increasing focus on premiumization and digital-first brands - International business contributes meaningful growth - Asset-light FMCG model with strong cash generation - Aggressive expansion into foods, wellness, and personal care - Strong execution and supply chain capabilities during volatile environments Growth Drivers Core Portfolio Recovery: Management expects volume recovery in the coconut oil business as copra prices normalize and pricing stabilizes. Value Added Hair Oils (VAHO): VAHO delivered 20% volume growth and continues gaining market share. Premium and mid-segment hair oils are growing strongly. Foods Business Scaling Up: Foods business crossed ₹1,000 crore revenue milestone with strong growth in Saffola Foods, healthy snacks, breakfast, and wellness products. Premium Personal Care: Digital-first brands like Beardo, Plix, Just Herbs, and others are scaling rapidly with improving profitability. International Business Momentum: Bangladesh, Vietnam, South Africa, and export markets continue delivering strong growth. Distribution Expansion: Project SETU and deeper rural distribution are improving execution and general trade recovery. Premiumization: Focus shifting toward higher-margin categories: - Cold-pressed oils - Saffola Gold - Functional nutrition - Premium grooming - Serums and skincare - Management Commentary Management sounded highly confident and execution-focused throughout the call. Key commentary: FY26 was called a “year of strong execution” - The company achieved multi-year highs across revenue and growth metrics - Management believes Marico is structurally stronger than smaller competitors during supply disruptions - Strong confidence in sustaining high single-digit India volume growth - Expects mid-teen constant currency growth in international business - FY30 ambition remains aggressive with focus on scaling premium and digital businesses Important management tone: Confident but measured Focused on profitable growth, not reckless expansion Strong emphasis on execution and resilience during volatility Outlook Near-Term Outlook (FY27) Management guidance: - Double-digit consolidated revenue growth - Revenue target above ₹15,000 crore - High-teen EBITDA growth - High single-digit India volume growth - Mid-teen international growth Medium-Term Outlook (FY30) Management aims: - Revenue above ₹20,000 crore - Mid-teen EBITDA growth - Reduce commodity-linked business mix from 70% to nearly 50% - New businesses contribute one-third of the total portfolio Overall outlook remains positive due to: - Portfolio diversification - Premiumization - Digital scaling - Improving profitability in new businesses Key Pressure Factors 1. Commodity Volatility - Copra prices remain volatile - Crude-linked input inflation continues - Packaging material inflation impacting industry 2. Geopolitical Risks - Middle East tensions affecting supply chains and edible oil costs. 3. Consumption Sensitivity - Rural demand recovery still depends on: - Inflation moderation - Good monsoon - Stable macro environment 4. Competition - Smaller and regional players remain active in hair oils and foods. 5. Deflation Risk - Coconut oil category can face temporary volume pressure during sharp price corrections. Management Strategy 1. Portfolio Diversification: Reducing dependence on the coconut oil business. 2. Premiumization: Driving growth through- * Premium hair oils * Functional foods * Grooming * Skincare * Wellness 3. Digital-First Brands: Scaling profitable D2C brands with strong online presence. 4. Distribution Expansion: Improving rural reach and GT execution through Project SETU. 5. Supply Chain Strength: Using scale advantage to outperform smaller players during disruptions. 6. Fewer, Bigger, Better Brands: Management repeatedly emphasized building: “Fewer, bigger, bolder and faster plays.” Key Observations - Management confidence is very high despite macro uncertainty - Execution quality appears significantly improved versus earlier years - Foods and digital businesses are becoming meaningful growth engines - Profitability focus in D2C brands is a major positive - Bangladesh business remains resilient despite political uncertainty - VAHO momentum is structurally strong - The company is gradually becoming less commodity-dependent - Supply chain capabilities are becoming a competitive moat What We Like Strong Execution: Management has handled inflation, supply disruptions, and commodity cycles extremely well. Improving Business Mix: Shift toward foods, premium personal care, and digital brands improves quality of earnings. High Cash Flow FMCG Model: Core business generates strong cash enabling acquisitions and investments. Strong Distribution: Rural reach and GT recovery can create long-term advantages. Premiumization Opportunity: Higher margin categories can structurally improve profitability. Digital Brands Turning Profitable: This is a major positive because many FMCG peers struggle in D2C profitability. What We Don’t Like Dependence on Commodity Cycles: Coconut oil and edible oils still influence profitability materially. Rich Expectations: Management guidance and market expectations are already high. New Businesses Still Relatively Small: Though growing fast, foods and premium personal care still need larger scale contribution. International Exposure Risks: Political and geopolitical instability can impact certain regions. Execution Risk in Acquisitions: Integrating multiple acquired brands successfully over long term remains important. Our View Marico Limited appears to be transitioning from a traditional commodity-linked FMCG company into a diversified premium consumer business with multiple growth engines. The biggest positive is not just growth — it is the quality of growth: - Higher margin categories - Premiumization - Digital-first brands - Improving profitability - Strong execution discipline Management execution credibility has improved materially over the last few years. If the company successfully scales foods, wellness, and premium personal care while maintaining strong core cash flows, Marico can structurally command better growth and valuation multiples over the medium term. Key monitorables going ahead: - Sustainability of VAHO growth - Food's profitability - D2C scaling - Copra price movement - Margin trajectory - International business stability Overall view: Strong FMCG compounder with improving business quality, better diversification, and credible long-term growth drivers. ***Not Invested*** #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #Marico #FMCG #Agriculture #oil

Aeroflex Industries – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our views · A niche industrial flow-solutions company that is trying to become a beneficiary of the AI data-center liquid cooling cycle. · Aeroflex is not a plain vanilla pipes / hoses company. · It makes metallic flexible flow solutions used to move solids, liquids and gases safely across industrial systems. The product portfolio includes: · Flexible hoses · Composite & interlock hoses · Assemblies & fittings · Metal bellows · Miniature metal bellows · Hydraulic fittings · Fluid connectors · Flanges · Liquid cooling skid assemblies The company exports to 90 countries and has 3,274 SKUs, making it a diversified precision flow-solutions player with global reach. But the real story now is the shift from core hoses to higher value-added engineered solutions. Growth? Q4 was strong. - Total income – ₹126.5 cr, up 38% YoY - EBITDA – ₹30 cr, up 59% YoY - EBITDA margin – 23.86% - PAT – ₹17.6 cr, up 57% YoY - Cash profit – ₹25.4 cr, up 67% YoY This was the company’s highest-ever quarterly performance. For FY26: - Total income – ₹443.3 cr, up 17% YoY - EBITDA – ₹99.7 cr, up 26% YoY - EBITDA margin – 22.57% - Cash profit – ₹81.6 cr, up 28% YoY So revenue growth was decent, but EBITDA and cash profit growth were stronger — a sign of operating leverage and better product mix. Reported PAT growth was lower than EBITDA growth because depreciation has moved up due to capacity expansion and capex. I would not treat that as a negative because the company is investing ahead of the opportunity. What changed? Liquid cooling is now real. Aeroflex has entered high-performance liquid cooling applications used in data centers and AI infrastructure. Why does this matter? · As AI workloads and compute density increase, traditional air cooling becomes less effective. Liquid cooling is becoming more relevant for next-gen data centers. · In FY26, Aeroflex sold 617 skid assemblies and generated ~₹21.2 cr revenue from this business in just four months. · Q4 alone saw 571 skid assemblies sold. · This is still small in the overall revenue mix, but the direction is important. · It has moved from “future opportunity” to “actual revenue.” · Capacity has also moved quickly. · Skid assembly capacity has scaled from 2,000 units per annum to 6,000 units per annum, and management is targeting 15,000 units per annum by Q2 FY27. Management guidance – and have they delivered? Mostly yes. 1. Management had guided for 20% EBITDA growth in FY26 – delivered 26% EBITDA growth. 2. Management had indicated a full-year EBITDA margin in the 21–22% range after a weak Q1, delivered better at 22.57%. 3. Management expected Q1 weakness to normalize over the next few quarters – delivered. Q4 became the best-ever quarter. 4. Value-added products were expected to remain a larger part of the mix – delivered. Assemblies and others contributed 52% of FY26 sales. 5. New businesses like Hyd-Air, metal bellows and liquid cooling were expected to start contributing 10–15% / 10–20% of revenue, broadly delivered. Hyd-Air, metal bellows and liquid cooling together are now meaningful contributors. 6. Hose capacity expansion to 20 million meters has not fully happened yet. Current capacity is 17.5 million meters, with the balance expected by Q2 FY27. 7. Skid capacity expansion is on track but still a future deliverable. The move from 6,000 units to 15,000 units by Q2 FY27 is the key monitorable. So the scorecard is: EBITDA growth – delivered Margin expansion – delivered Q1 recovery – delivered Value-added mix – delivered Liquid cooling entry – delivered Capacity expansion – partly pending Long-term picture Management has indicated that peak potential across major growth blocks can be much larger than the current base. At peak utilization, they have spoken about: - Hoses and assemblies – ₹650–675 cr - Liquid cooling skids – ₹300–350 cr - Metal bellows – ~₹85 cr - Hyd-Air – ~₹45 cr This implies a potential revenue base of ₹1,000 cr over the next few years if capacity utilization and demand ramp up as expected. This is not a one-year guidance. It is a medium-term capacity/utilization potential. Other moving parts - Hyd-Air is gaining traction and recorded 50% YoY growth in FY26. Management expects it to play a larger role in new-age businesses and internal high-end applications. - Metal bellows is also starting to scale. - Management expects this to be a higher-margin product line once utilization improves. Earlier commentary indicated 28–30% EBITDA margin potential at optimum utilization. - The company also showcased its liquid cooling portfolio at Data Center World, Washington, which signals that the target market is global and not only domestic. Our verdict FY26 was an important year. Aeroflex delivered on margins, recovered from a weak Q1 and proved that liquid cooling can become a real revenue stream. The base business remains steady. The new question is: Can liquid cooling scale from ₹21 cr revenue to a meaningful part of the P&L? If yes, Aeroflex moves from being a niche industrial exporter to a possible AI infrastructure supply-chain play. If not, it is still a good margin-accretive industrial business — but without the larger re-rating trigger. What we like · Aeroflex is moving up the value chain. · Value-added products are now a meaningful part of sales, and that is showing up in EBITDA margins. · Margins are strong. · FY26 EBITDA margin was 22.57%, despite Q1 disruption and global tariff uncertainty. · Liquid cooling has started contributing actual revenue. · ₹21.2 cr revenue in four months is a good start for a new business line. · Capacity expansion can change the scale of the company. · The jump to 15,000 skid assemblies and 20 million meters of hose capacity by Q2 FY27 is an important growth trigger. · The balance sheet is comfortable. · Cash generation remains strong, and the company has enough internal strength to keep investing in capacity, automation and new products. What we don’t like / watchouts · Liquid cooling is still early. · The opportunity is large, but the current revenue contribution is small. FY27 will show whether this can become a large repeat business. · Customer concentration needs to be watched. · The initial liquid cooling opportunity is linked to one major US-headquartered partner. More customers would make the story stronger. · Execution complexity is higher now. · Skid assemblies, liquid cooling components and metal bellows require more engineering, design validation, and customer approvals than the legacy hose business. · Capacity is being built ahead of demand. · That is fine if utilization follows. But investors should track how quickly the new skid, hose and bellows capacities ramp up. · Export exposure cuts both ways. · It gives Aeroflex a global opportunity, but also exposes the business to tariffs, logistics disruptions, currency volatility and geopolitical risks. Final view · Aeroflex has moved from: “steady flexible hose exporter” to “engineered flow-solutions company with liquid cooling optionality.” · FY26 proves that the base business is resilient and margin-accretive. · The new liquid cooling business gives the company a bigger narrative. · FY27 will be about execution. #Trinetra #Aeroflex #Investing #ConcallHighlights #ConcallNotes #DataCenters #LiquidCooling #AIInfrastructure #Manufacturing #EquityResearch

Blue Star Ltd – Q4 FY26 – 1st cut and our views Resilient Q4, but FY27 will be about pricing, summer demand, and margin delivery Blue Star delivered a steady Q4FY26 in a difficult year. Revenue grew only 1.3% YoY to Rs 4,072 cr, but EBITDA improved to Rs 326 cr, with margin expanding to 8.0% versus 7.0% last year. PAT rose to Rs 227 cr versus Rs 194 cr in Q4FY25. For FY26, revenue grew 3.6% to Rs 12,402 cr and EBITDA increased 6.2% to Rs 930 cr, but PAT declined to Rs 527 cr from Rs 591 cr, partly due to the one-time labour-code-related charge. The company recommended a dividend of Rs 8.5/share. FY26 was a messy year for the company, impacted by weak summer, GST-related disruption, energy-label change, channel stocking issues, and input-cost pressures. In that context, Q4 was more about execution and cost control than strong revenue growth. The carried-forward order book increased 10.5% YoY to Rs 6,923 cr, giving decent visibility for projects and commercial cooling. Our view is that Blue Star remains a strong cooling and projects franchise, but the FY27 setup is not simple. RAC demand has improved from April, data centre and manufacturing demand remain healthy, and the balance sheet is comfortable. However, the key debate now is whether the company can pass on cost increases and protect margins without losing growth. What stood out in Q4 The main positive was margin improvement despite weak revenue growth. Q4 EBITDA margin expanded by 100 bps YoY to 8.0%, helped by cost control, lower advertising spends ahead of a delayed summer, and better pricing discipline. Segment 2 was the key driver. Unitary Products EBIT margin improved sharply to 10.4% from 8.4% last year. Demand also improved from mid-April, after a delayed summer start, with secondary sales of room ACs picking up. The order book was another positive. Overall, the carried-forward order book stood at Rs 6,923 cr, up 10.5% YoY. Segment 1 Q4 order inflow was up 35.7% YoY to Rs 1,954 cr, driven by better enquiries from buildings, data centres and factories. Segment 1: demand is healthy, margins are softer Segment 1, which includes electro-mechanical projects and commercial AC, reported Q4 revenue of Rs 1,990 cr, up 1.1% YoY. However, EBIT margin declined to 6.5% from 7.6% last year. For FY26, revenue grew 12.8% to Rs 6,763 cr, but margin declined to 7.4% from 8.2%. The margin decline was mainly due to project mix. Management continues to focus on profitable projects rather than chasing market share, which is the right approach. However, it also means investors should not assume immediate margin upside from data centres and manufacturing orders. Demand remains healthy, especially in data centres and manufacturing. Blue Star has a strong position in these areas, but margins are likely to stay in the 7–7.5% range rather than moving up sharply. Segment 2: strong Q4, but pricing power will be tested Unitary Products was the strongest segment in Q4. Revenue grew 1.3% YoY to Rs 1,985 cr, while EBIT margin expanded to 10.4% from 8.4%. This was helped by lower ad spends, cost rationalisation and better pricing. However, the full-year picture was weaker. FY26 revenue declined 5.1% to Rs 5,332 cr and margin was broadly stable at 8.2% versus 8.4% last year. Hence, Q4 margins should not be extrapolated directly. The key issue is pricing. Management indicated that around 13% price increase was required: 5% due to energy-label changes and 8% due to raw material and currency impact. So far, around 8% has been realised, with the balance expected in May-June billings if summer demand remains strong. This is the main FY27 monitorable. Blue Star wants to maintain 8–8.5% margins in Segment 2 while moving towards 15% market share from around 13.25% currently. This is achievable if summer remains strong and the market absorbs price hikes. If demand weakens or consumers trade down, margins can come under pressure. RAC demand: improving, but still weather-dependent Management’s tone on RAC demand was constructive but cautious. Summer started only around April 13, after which secondary sales picked up. Channel inventory is around 45–60 days, which can be reduced quickly if summer remains active. Management indicated that 25–30% industry growth in Q1FY27 would be a good outcome, though around 10% of that would be pricing and around 15% real volume growth. Our view is that RAC remains a strong structural opportunity, but near-term growth will depend heavily on summer intensity and price absorption. Commercial refrigeration remains soft Commercial refrigeration continues to be weak. Demand from frozen food and QSR remains muted, while deep freezers and cold rooms were stagnant. Storage water coolers saw double-digit growth, but that is not enough to change the broader picture. For now, RAC remains the main growth driver within Segment 2. Commercial refrigeration is not yet contributing meaningfully to a re-rating. Segment 3: better margins, but small scale Professional Electronics and Industrial Systems had a better Q4, with revenue up 7.3% YoY to Rs 97 cr and EBIT margin improving to 14.7% from 9.7%. For FY26, revenue declined 12% to Rs 307 cr, though margin improved to 11.4%. Industrial solutions did well, helped by automotive and steel demand. Data security remained steady. However, regulatory uncertainty in testing/med-tech continues to hurt growth. This is a good-margin business, but too small to move the overall needle. International business: optionality, not near-term driver Blue Star’s international business remains an interesting long-term opportunity. The company is focusing on CDM manufacturing for air-to-water and air-to-air heat pumps in the US and Europe. Management has received approvals and customer acceptance for some products, but the US HVAC market is soft and global trade uncertainty remains high. Europe is also slow, though heat pump adoption can improve over time. This business can become meaningful over the next few years, but we would not build aggressive near-term assumptions yet. Balance sheet remains comfortable The balance sheet remains healthy. Net worth increased to Rs 3,431 cr from Rs 3,064 cr, while debt/equity increased to 0.18x from 0.07x. Net cash declined to Rs 175.5 cr from Rs 640.3 cr, largely due to higher capital employed and working-capital/capex needs. Annual capex is expected to remain around Rs 250–350 cr, including maintenance, R&D, product development and digital investments. This is not a balance-sheet concern, but FY27 cash generation will be important given inventory, pricing, capex and project execution requirements. What we like Blue Star remains a strong cooling franchise with presence across RACs, commercial AC, projects, refrigeration and after-sales. Structural demand drivers remain intact, led by low AC penetration, data centres, manufacturing capex and commercial cooling. Q4 execution was also good. Margins improved despite weak growth, Segment 2 profitability recovered sharply, and the order book gives visibility. Management also remains disciplined on project selection. What we do not like FY26 growth was weak and PAT declined despite higher revenue and EBITDA. Q4 Segment 2 margins were helped by lower ad spends and delayed summer, so sustainability needs to be tested. FY27 margin risk is the bigger issue. The company still needs to pass on the balance price increase, while further input-cost pressure can emerge. RAC competition remains high, and down-trading risk is real. Segment 1 margins have softened, commercial refrigeration remains weak, and international business is still early-stage. Our verdict Blue Star’s Q4FY26 was a good execution quarter, but not a clean growth beat. The company managed margins well in a difficult year, and the order book plus data centre/manufacturing pipeline support medium-term growth. However, FY27 will be more about margin delivery than just volume growth. The key question is whether Blue Star can maintain 8–8.5% margins in Unitary Products and 7–7.5% margins in Segment 1 while passing price hikes and gaining market share. For now, our first cut is constructive but watchful. Blue Star remains a quality structural cooling play, but earnings upgrades will need proof that Q4 margin strength can sustain once advertising spends normalise and full cost pressures flow through. #Trinetra #Investing #Concallhighlights #Concallnotes #Q4concalls #Bluestar #Appliance #Industry #Consumerdurables