10 Year Hedge Fund Analyst | Private Company CFO | Sharing idiosyncratic stock ideas with accelerating fundamentals | NFA DYOD
Joined July 2023
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Decided to make a Substack (see bio). Will be posting free articles on market and paid articles on individual stocks
First write up is on $brun, which I think will 3x in the next 12 months following a similar path as $NBIS $CRWV
Write up covers founding origins, business model explained simply, $nvda Exemplar Cloud partnership, customers and partnerships, compares coreweave and nebius trajectories to BRUN, covers unit economics of BRUN's contracts including IRRs, insider lock up debunked, sizing the neocloud market and brun's opportunity within it, rebuttals to common questions, valuation framework
Let me know what you think
@JonahLupton
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Game theory from here is super interesting:
Original Mags (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) now have a serious non-zero opportunity to tank the frontier labs.
Go to the government, kneecap the labs’ motion of putting the latest models out in the wild, become the trusted gatekeeper between the labs and the public at large (including internationally) by having the labs go through their clouds (AWS, GCP, Azure) and implement strict KYC to seal the deal.
The frontier labs should have seen this coming years ago and implemented a robust KYC for just this moment. The fact they didn’t is kind of concerning.
Why did they not do it?
Best guess is because it would have changed the run-rate revenues (downward) which would have then changed funding dynamics - lower valuations, more dilution, less secondary.
A valuation reset may happen now anyways, except the labs may end up with less control and more restrictions at the end of it. At the same time, everyone is already clamoring about token prices of the old models from the labs anyways…
This couldn’t be a better setup for open source and neoclouds. Big question is can they meet the moment?
There are too few of them and their progress seems sporadic at best.
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Asymmetric Bets retweeted
if AI gets regulated, isn’t $BRUN in a prime position given their entire focus is on running GPUs in a certified, auditable environment.
$BRUN has SOC 2 Type 1&2, HIPAA, ISO 27001. Serving govt regulated industries by design, with a DoD CAGE code and Carahsoft access to 200 federal contracts.
If the government is about to take equity stakes in AI companies, maybe they’ll want the one that is focused on running data for the government
@mkfilko @UncleAlpha007
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Jun 12
🚨Launching company paying $1M W2 salaries 🚨
Given $spcx IPO, I am launching an Orbital compute/gpu services company.
Hiring 2 roles:
1) orbital technician —> job requirements:
A. Strap yourself to side of a starship spacecraft with a bungeecord
B. At least 2 years prior IB experience and 2 years Private equity experience
C. Prompt Claude code from space how to fix shit while floating
2) technical recruiter —> job requirements:
A. Personally achieve 10% or less of candidates you seek to hire
B. 2.0 gpa frat star, attended a college that not even ChatGPT has heard of, be an insufferable leech
If you guys have any good leads HMU! Thx.
@HighyieldHarry @chamath @GrantCardone
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Jun 12
I’ll I want is to sign a $50M Citadel guarantee, underperform with a .004% drawdown between 9:30am and 11am, get fired by 11:05am and still be able to make my 1pm tee time at Shinnecock
Is that too much to ask for?
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Jun 11
🚨 Shake Out Alert 🚨
They are going to try to shake you out. This could be sharp down and nasty for high flyers. Market has been hot.
Now:
Inflation FUD (4% handle)
Iran war restarting
OpenAI slashing prices
Token prices falling
Anthropic revenue Feb-May anomaly
CPO delayed
Market has been hot. I am bullish as anyone. But it doesn’t mean short and nasty pullback in high beta names can’t happen as ppl try to protect profits.
Manage risk.
Jun 11
*OpenAI Expects Anthropic to Reduce Prices After Some Users Balk at AI Costs, Sources Say -- WSJ
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Jun 10
Anthropic is currently like ~$50B ARR on an estimated 1GW, which Jensen says is $50B (shell, cooling, chips, etc).
If you assume for a second that Anthropic decides not grow and just runs at ~$50B ARR (an exercise to just sanity check ROIC), the math looks quite good. 25% ROIC?
Assumptions below. Where are my assumptions off? Maybe comp ($2.5M per employee?)?
@GavinSBaker @chamath @DavidSacks @friedberg
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Asymmetric Bets retweeted
Jun 10
$NVDA CEO Jensen Huang said that $50 billion for one gigawatt can generate $300B to $400B in intelligence output 🤯
That is 6-8x value creation per factory
It’s no wonder why hyperscalers and neoclouds are racing to lock up power from the grid and on-site generation
Jun 1
$NVDA CEO Jensen Huang has said AI data centers could cost $80B-$100B per gigawatt in the future🔋💸
At this valuation, a single megawatt would sell for $60-$100M
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Jun 10
5 Reasons I am Bullish This Cycle and 5 Caution Signals I am Watching.
Free on my Substack (link below). Please consider subscribing for free market commentary and paid individual stock write ups. First write-up was on $BRUN
asymmetricinvestinginsights.…
@BillAckman
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Jun 10
$000660 trading at 60% discount to Micron $MU which looks likely to close mid August when the SK Hynix ADR happens. Long SKH
Korea’s Meritz Securities: SK hynix ADR issuance timeline update and estimate
- SEC approval is imminent within June, and completion of the U.S. market listing could be possible by mid-August.
→ Even just catching up to Micron’s valuation could drive a sharp, explosive near-term move in the stock.
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