Sijoitustietoon saatiin uusi erinomainen kirjoittaja @ValueByMarkus . Ensimmäisessä artikkelissaan hän analysoi vakuutusalan disruptoijaa, Lemonadea. ”…ensimmäinen puhtaasti diginatiivi vakuutusyhtiö, joka lupasi mullistaa alan mm. tekoälyn avulla.” sijoitustieto.fi/sijoitusart…

Started reading The Bitcoin Standard to understand the topic better. It’s somewhat ironic that the foreword was written by @saylor in March 2021, given that Strategy is now sitting on more than 10 B$ of unrealized Bitcoin losses. Managing a company’s treasury operations is a crucial part of running a business, and my starting hypothesis going into the book is skepticism toward the crypto treasury business model. Happy to be proven wrong.

Lemonade is upgrading its Car insurance game. By directly integrating with @Tesla vehicles, they’re eliminating the need for a UBI device in their Pay-Per-Mile product. What this means strategically: 1. Lower costs, higher scale potential  No hardware or shipping means lower CAC and operational complexity. Tesla drivers get cheaper policies, Lemonade keeps more margin. 2. Better data, smarter pricing Tesla’s API delivers richer driving behavior info than traditional UBI devices. More accurate risk assessment - more precise pricing and rewards for safe (potentially FSD) driving. 3. Stronger moat, seamless customer experience A seamless Tesla experience may make Lemonade the go-to choice for EV owners. Switching friction rises when insurance is integrated directly into the car ecosystem, versus legacy players. 4. Optional upside to growth  While Tesla drivers are still a niche for Lemonade, this positions the company to capture a premium, tech-savvy customer segment first. Could be a small but strategic lever in gross-selling to other insurance products, and expand API capabilities for other EVs. This isn’t just a product tweak, it’s a subtle but meaningful step toward smarter, lower-cost, data-driven insurance that could compound Lemonade’s competitive edge in EV insurance. Interesting to hear more about this in the Q3 report. $LMND

I have nothing against BTC and could even see myself owning it at some point. But when I read the future assumptions like: “After 10 years at a 25% Bitcoin CAGR…” I’d rather lean short than long. Eventually leveraging the balance sheet at a 10% cost of capital, relying on financial engineering and assuming the underlying asset will sustainably outperform that hurdle that’s where it gets uncomfortable. The bull case for $MSTR is valid if BTC performs. But I hope investors understand the embedded risks, especially now that the market has started to price some of them in.

Talking about the annual profit warning season: Admicom issues guidance downgrade. The Finnish SaaS company $ADMCM cut its 2025 ARR and revenue growth outlook as the construction market recovery stalls. "The recovery of the construction market has been delayed." ARR growth: now 6–10% (prev. 8–14%) Revenue growth: 5–8% (prev. 6–11%) EBITDA margin: 31–33% (prev. 31–36%) Bankruptcies and weak customer growth are hitting churn and usage levels, while internal restructuring still hasn’t boosted sales or product dev pace. Falling rates in Europe should eventually support construction, but the recovery seems delayed, likely not before 2026. Until then, it’s a tough operating environment, though we’ve seen some positive execution elsewhere, like $TEKOVA, showing that selective resilience is still possible. Euribor 12 months:

Nvidia $NVDA CEO thinks software companies are not dead

$QTCOM to undergo an operational reorg to enhance efficiency. They will cut up to 200 FTEs globally (close to 20% of the workforce), aiming to deliver approximately €20M in annual cost savings starting in 2027. IAR acquisition and integration synergy benefits are being harvested, although I would estimate that a significant portion of the savings is coming from elsewhere. While the reorg and cost focus were expected, the scale is much larger than I anticipated. It will be interesting to follow how this impacts the growth outlook, as the sales organization will likely also be trimmed. Given the 2025 EBIT of ~€42M, the scale of the cost measures is significant. It will be particularly interesting to hear more detail and reasoning from management, especially regarding where the FTE reductions will occur.

Interesting insights on potential catalysts around $IREN What I’m watching most in the near term is the Sweetwater 1 energization. I would expect to see the site energized by late April, bringing ~1.4 GW of capacity online. To put that into perspective, this is more than the output of an average US nuclear power plant. Delivering within the communicated timeline would also add credibility and, more importantly, demonstrate valuable operational know-how in building efficient, high-quality power-to-compute infrastructure. As mentioned, this would also position $IREN well for potential commercial agreements with (hyperscaler) customers looking to access large-scale compute capacity. Given the expected wave of major AI IPOs (OpenAI, Anthropic) and the rapid progress of models like Claude, driving the application layer of AI (performance, unit-cost), I remain confident that the structural demand drivers are intact. As a practical anecdote from my work in the financial sector: AI is at the center of all major transformation initiatives, with usage (even at the token level) and capability building growing at an exponential pace. Great takes by @Agrippa_Inv , as usual.

$NOK senior executive Owczarek Konstanty (Chief Business Development Officer) bought a meaningful ~500 k$ stake. I didn’t expect insider buying at these valuation levels, but they likely have good visibility into the pipeline. Selling can indicate many things, but buying usually indicates just one. I hope I’m wrong, but for me $NOK current valuation is far from an attractive risk/reward, with EV/EBIT at ~30x and so far limited realized top-line growth, with analyst estimates implying only ~5% annual growth for the coming years.

La #Ferrari Luce non è proprio piaciuta a #Montezemolo

Howard Marks, one of the investors I admire most, reduced his $NOK position by ~40%. Even if $NOK is the “next AI bottleneck opportunity,” the current valuation still doesn’t justify the risk/reward, in my opinion. x.com/valuebymarkus/status/2…

Chamath Lays Out the Case for SpaceX at $2 Trillion – Starlink: the most important internet infra project since the internet itself – Rockets: underlying platform that allows everything else to happen – AI: apps top layer, datacenter bottom layer – The Elon Flywheel: operating leverage ➡️ investment ➡️ competitive moat ➡️ capital moat ➡️ technology moat ➡️ execution/learning moat – Potential Tesla merger down the road – Elon’s premium for being “the guy” right now @chamath: “ If I'm asking myself, ‘Chamath, how do I underwrite SpaceX at $2T?’ Here's the basic math that I would do. Last year it did $18-19 billion. It'll probably do $25-30 billion this year. So I'm buying this thing at a fairly costly premium, right? So what am I buying? I'm buying probably the most important internet infrastructure project that's happened since the internet itself. That's going to scale to hundreds of millions of users, and the reason that's going to scale to hundreds of millions of users is it's just very useful, and it's just going to become cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. So that's number one. I'm buying a delivery infrastructure, I think over time, GDP plus 10, GDP plus 15, kind of a grower. So good business, valuable business, but it's the underlying platform that allows everything else to happen. And then I'm buying an AI business, which will be at the top level the apps, but at the bottom layer all the compute capability. So I suspect what happens is next year it's probably $40-45 billion. And then the year after that it probably doubles again, so then I'm buying it at 20x revenue. And you would say, ‘Well, why can you buy a company like this on revenue versus earnings and cash flow?’ And I think the reason is because what the revenue does is it gives him the operating leverage to go and invest in all of these other businesses that ultimately consolidate his differentiation and his competitive moat, because what he creates is a capital moat that then accelerates a technology moat, that then accelerates an execution and a learning moat. And that flywheel, when it starts to spin very quickly, and you would say, ‘Hey, hold on a second. It's probably spinning quickly now.’ I would say we're at the beginning of the beginning. He still has all these disparate assets. I still don't like the fact that Tesla's over here, and as I've told you, that will get merged in. And now you have this incredible corpus of physical capability, movement of all kinds, X, Y, and Z, right? That thing will look very cheap, I think, in a few years. And he has this one thing that nobody else, if you look at the big CEOs, who steps on stage where you're always curious, ‘Okay, what has he got up his sleeve?’ You know, the Steve Jobs, ‘Oh, and one more thing.’ He's the guy. Whether you like him or you hate him, he's the guy, and there's a premium that is well-deserved that comes with that.”

$AUROORA 🇫🇮 Finnish serial acquirers first earnings are out and looking pretty strong all around. 12% organic growth, which is solid in the sluggish Finnish economy ( 41% total growth). Margins improved, ROCE stable. Still fairly cheap vs peers (12-ish x LTM EV/EBITA)