Since the outset of the Iran war,
@gop lawmakers and their staff have been telling me they're watching/waiting for two variables: $5 gas and June. In their view, $5 gas was "the new $4" and June was when President Trump would need to pivot to domestic policies to help Republicans hold the House and Senate going into the midterms. Now here we are, with the ceasefire on month two, in June, but gas at a previously inconceivable $4.33/gallon.
With a fractured Republican conference, an AUMF on the verge of passing in the House after passing in the Senate when
@BillCassidy lost his primary and went YOLO and as my favorite Republican House staffer puts it to me "only 18 legislative days left until the August recess", its extremely unlikely that we get a gas tax holiday and I'm optimistic the President won't impose an export control ban - at least not yet.
We've gotten to June, but not to $5. Amazing and, as
@FerroTV puts it, a humbling market. Great to be with
@lisaabramowicz1 and
@annmarie and (from the Green Room) Apollo's Torsten Slok this Monday morning!
@BloombergTV @VedaPartners1