All markets are becoming crypto-like

A lot of people are CONVINCED that the SpaceX IPO will instantly dump I’m not. Could see a ‘financial engineering’ masterclass. Low float listing Pump it higher Juice earnings to ensure index eligibility Increase float during first six months (to increase index weighting) Offload to passive index buyers at insane valuation Acquired by Tesla in a few years at a more reasonable valuation “decided by free markets” If you don’t at least SEE that possibility, you’re naive or lacking imagination

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE. SNDK just became the most overbought stock in the history of the US stock market. Monthly RSI: 99.19.

The number of people who got bearish because we pulled back 5% after going up 30% in a straight line emphasizes how most market participants just can’t handle normal volatility. Learn to embrace volatility and your chances of success will go up exponentially.

why bad market days feel like a personal attack You open the app. Red. You close it. You open it again. Still red. You know checking it every four minutes isn't going to change anything. You do it anyway. And somewhere between the third and fourth check, something shifts. It stops being about the money. Your chest tightens. There's a low hum of dread that wasn't there yesterday. You're in a meeting and you're nodding at the right times but you're not actually there. You're back in the app. Running the numbers. Wondering if you should cut it. Wondering if cutting it means you've admitted you were wrong. Most people assume this feeling is about the loss. A few thousand off the portfolio and the mood will recover when the market does. But that's not what's happening. Two very specific things are going on under the surface. And neither of them are about money. The first… being down makes you feel incompetent. Not unlucky. Incompetent. You're someone who is good at their job. Probably very good. You solve hard problems. People come to you for answers. And yet here you are, getting repeatedly humiliated by a number on a screen that doesn't know your name and doesn't care about your opinion. That feeling doesn't stay in the app. You'd be amazed how far it travels. It's there when your partner asks how the portfolio is doing and you give a vague non-answer. It's there on Sunday evening when the market is closed and you're already dreading Monday. It's the low-grade background noise that follows a bad week. The quiet voice that asks, when everything is still… am I actually any good at this? The second thing… the market has destroyed your sense of control. You did the work. You read the reports. You made a considered, rational decision. And then the market moved anyway, completely indifferent to your analysis, your conviction, your carefully built case. There's a specific kind of helplessness in that moment. The feeling that the rules you thought applied... don't. That you are, despite everything, just guessing - an idiot like everyone else. And here's where it gets worse. If you don't understand why bad days feel like this, you keep misdiagnosing the problem. You assume it's the stock. So you find a better stock. You assume it's the strategy. So you pay for another course, another Discord, another newsletter with a slightly different angle, one that doesn’t actually teach process. You spend two years rotating through approaches, each one promising more certainty, none of it actually landing. Nothing sticks because you're treating the symptom. The incompetence feeling has one real fix… structured risk management. Objective rules that remove your judgment from the equation on the hard days. When your exits are mechanical, a red day stops being a verdict on your intelligence. It becomes data. You executed the plan. The plan said sell here. You sold. That's it. The psychological weight of the position evaporates and you maintain your competence. The control problem has one real fix: understanding how the market actually works at a mechanical level. Capital flows. Incentives. Momentum. The actual plumbing beneath the headlines. Once you have that, the chaos acquires a structure. You're no longer reacting to noise andc you're reading the thing everyone else is drowning in. Both of those fixes live in the first segment of the Academy. Every red day you sit through without that framework is doing compounding damage. The losses hurt. But the psychology is what really accumulates. You get more hesitant. You miss the opportunities that would have worked because you're still flinching from the last one. You start exiting the game in slow motion while telling yourself you're being disciplined.

This is absolutely insane: The SpaceX IPO has now drawn more than $70 BILLION worth of retail orders alone. SpaceX is raising $75 billion, making retail interest ALONE enough to nearly fill the entire sale. To put this in perspective, the previous record IPO was Saudi Aramco in 2020 at $29.4 billion. This means that retail interest in SpaceX is now 2.4 TIMES larger than the total amount raised in the previous largest IPO in history. As a result, SpaceX has announced that 20% of their IPO will be allocated to retail investors, following through on @elonmusk's vision to democratize the record IPO. Nothing even remotely near what SpaceX is about to do has ever happened. Friday will be a historic day.

Bill Gurley says Visa and Mastercard will be "heavily threatened" by stablecoins. From The Knowledge Project this week: "Those two companies have two of the highest operating margins in the history of business. They have like 60% operating margins, and they're duopolies, and they were created by the banks. So the whole industry is kind of stuck in this world where they make a lot of money because it is this way. But there's zero reason why it should cost 2 or 3%. Just zero. In America, if I want to send you 50 bucks digitally, I've got to go through ACH, which is 3-day settlement, which is part of this regulatory capture bullshit... If you have a Coinbase account, you can put your money in a USDC stablecoin and earn 4%, and within seconds immediately transfer money to someone else for pennies... At this point, I think stablecoins will get there faster than the government will be able to do it." $V $MA Agree or disagree?

My cousin in the UK is moving house tomorrow, six people in the "chain". One of them this morning just sent an email saying he's £20,000 short and asking everyone else to jointly make up the difference or the entire deal folds.

That recent sell off is making me nervous. I don't want to go back under £200k.

I’m going through the course now and already applying things I’ve learnt Also feeling less anxious and scared

I don't like $SIVE

SOURCES: ANTHROPIC WILL RELEASE THE PUBLIC VERSION OF MYTHOS TOMORROW

I think most people approach trading backwards. They assume profitability *requires* some secret strategy (an edge nobody else has discovered yet). So they spend their time hunting for that hidden key and fail miserably. No wonder, though, because this is quant-fund, PhD, millions-in-research hard. For the average trader, this is a misguided premise. The information that would actually make you profitable is already out there, freely available. You could probably head to Google, type "trend following strategy" or some other keyword, and find something that works today. So, the real constraint is not access, but rather one of two things: • You don't like the risk Running it means sitting through drawdowns, stomaching volatility, etc. The profit is priced in discomfort and it genuinely sucks ass. • Capturing it takes infrastructure you don't have The idea is real, you'd happily take it, but the way it actually pays out demands things you can't put on the table. Data feeds, automation, capital, tooling, etc. So once you strip away the fantasy of the secret strategy, what you're actually left with is quite simple. It always comes back to risk. Either getting comfortable holding risk you were previously unwilling to hold, or learning to take on the specific risk that actually compensates you for carrying it.