. Who will benefit from the new equilibrium? A perspective that even non-economists may find interesting. The real question is whether the new equilibrium will create broad-based gains or merely offer hope to some countries The framework suggests that moving from the old globalization equilibrium (B₁) to a new one (B₂) may avoid the costly collapse associated with a trade war. However, it raises several difficult questions. Will everyone benefit equally? Not necessarily. The model itself acknowledges that cooperation under geopolitical rivalry may require concessions. Some countries may have to accept lower welfare than under the previous system in order to preserve stability. Will there be losers? Probably yes. The transition from B₁ to B₂ does not imply that all countries will gain. Some countries may become preferred partners, while others may find themselves outside new trade, investment, and technology networks. Who will gain the most? Countries that can position themselves as reliable intermediaries, neutral hubs, or members of aligned blocs may capture a disproportionate share of investment and trade. Others may receive little more than expectations without meaningful improvements in welfare. Could the new equilibrium simply offer hope to some countries? That may be the most important question. The movement from B₁ to B₂ represents a new equilibrium, but not necessarily a fair one. Since welfare gains need not be distributed equally, some countries could remain close to the axes, enjoying only limited benefits, while others move much closer to the efficiency frontier. In other words, a more stable global system does not automatically guarantee broadly shared prosperity. PERHAPS THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IS NOT REACHING A NEW EQUILIBRIUM, BUT DESIGNING ONE IN WHICH THE GAINS ARE SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD TO KEEP COOPERATION POLITICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY SUSTAINABLE Source: @IMFNews by Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta, Robert W. Staiger

. META and GOOGLE are signing major deals for next-generation GEOTHERMAL POWER to supply their DATA CENTERS The shale gas revolution transformed the U.S. energy landscape through advances in drilling and completion technologies. Something similar may be happening in geothermal. Meta and Google appear to recognize this opportunity and are becoming some of the biggest customers of next-generation geothermal power. Google Fervo Energy @Google helped prove EGS technology with Fervo's Project Red pilot and later signed a framework agreement for up to 3 GW of future geothermal capacity. Earlier, Google also secured 115 MW of 24/7 enhanced geothermal power and recently supported another agreement with Ormat and NV Energy for up to 150 MW of new geothermal capacity in Nevada. Meta XGS Energy @Meta signed an agreement with XGS Energy to develop 150 MW of advanced geothermal power in New Mexico. XGS uses a closed-loop approach that reduces dependence on naturally occurring water resources and permeable rock formations. Meta Sage Geosystems Meta also signed a separate 150 MW agreement with Sage Geosystems. Sage's approach leverages drilling and subsurface expertise developed by the oil and gas industry. Why this matters: Unlike wind and solar, geothermal can provide electricity around the clock with capacity factors above 90%, making it particularly attractive for AI data centers that require constant power. Many observers see echoes of the shale revolution: - Horizontal drilling and stimulation techniques pioneered by oil and gas are now being adapted to geothermal. - Companies such as Fervo, XGS, and Sage are attempting to unlock heat resources that were previously uneconomic. - Large tech companies are providing long-term demand and improving access to financing. The parallels with the shale era are striking. Just as George Mitchell helped commercialize shale gas, entrepreneurs such as @TimMLatimer and the teams behind @fervoenergy , @xgsenergy , and @sagegeosystems are trying to do something similar for geothermal energy. Sources: @Reuters, Reuters Events, @OrmatInc, @NatLabRockies

Incredible! The U.S. seems to have an almost LIMITLESS energy resource. Will America's second great energy boom be driven by GEOTERMAL? The post consists of three parts: FIRST, the resource potential; SECOND, the REMARKABLE IMPACT of NEW TECHNOLOGIES; and THIRD, the people and innovations driving these technological advances The resource is much larger than current production The map below shows that while conventional geothermal resources are concentrated in the western United States, favorable geology for enhanced geothermal systems extends across much of the country. Existing hydrothermal sites are only a small part of the potential resource base. California and Nevada dominate current production. Large parts of the West and some regions in the South and East also show favorable conditions. The resource itself appears much larger than what is currently being utilized. Source: @NatLabRockies by Dayo Akindipe, @faithskilee13, Erik Witter, Hannah Pauling, Hyunjun Oh, Slater Podgorny, @Rane_Jayaraj_36, Jenna Harmon, @BeingSaqibJaved, Juliet Simpson, Dora Shlosberg, Emily Holt, Whitney Trainor-Guitton, and Aaron Levine @Geo_Rising by Brian Schmidt and Anine Pedersen, @coschoolofmines, @MinesGeophysics

New technologies could unlock geothermal almost anywhere Traditional geothermal plants require naturally occurring hot water and permeable rock. Next-generation approaches aim to remove these constraints. The basic idea is simple: hot rock exists almost everywhere, but naturally occurring hot water and permeable reservoirs do not. Traditional geothermal systems only work where both are present. New technologies aim to overcome this limitation. 1. Conventional hydrothermal: This is the approach used today in places like California and Nevada. Natural hot water and fractures already exist underground. Wells bring the hot water to the surface, where it drives turbines to generate electricity. Today, in places like California and Nevada: Surface ↓ Well ↓ ↑ Well ======================== Natural hot water ======================== 2. Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS): If natural water is absent or fractures are limited, engineered solutions can create a reservoir. Using techniques adapted from the oil and gas industry, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, water is circulated through hot rock. This allows previously inaccessible heat resources to be turned into electricity. Surface ↓ Water injection Well ↓ ======================== Hot rock Engineered fractures ======================== Well ↑ Hot water Using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques borrowed from the oil and gas industry, water is circulated through hot rock, turning previously inaccessible heat into a source of electricity. 3. Closed-loop systems: In closed-loop systems, the fluid never comes into contact with underground rock formations or groundwater. Instead, fluid circulates inside sealed pipes, absorbs heat from surrounding rock, and returns to the surface. These systems require little or no natural reservoir. The fluid never comes into contact with groundwater or rock formations: Surface ↓ ↑ │ │ │ │ │________________│ Hot rock Fluid circulates inside a sealed pipe, absorbs heat from surrounding rock, and returns to the surface. Little or no natural reservoir is required. 4. Superhot geothermal: By drilling deeper, temperatures above 400°C can be reached. At such temperatures, a single well could potentially produce several times more energy than conventional geothermal wells. By drilling much deeper: Surface ↓ │ │ │ ======================== >400°C superhot rock ======================== ↑ Steam Temperatures above 400°C can be reached, potentially allowing each well to produce several times more energy than conventional geothermal wells. Why does this matter for the eastern United States? Unlike California and Nevada, the eastern U.S. has relatively few shallow hydrothermal resources. However, hot rock exists several kilometers underground. This means: Today: geothermal electricity is concentrated mainly in California and Nevada. If EGS succeeds: states such as Texas, Colorado, Utah, and even parts of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Appalachia could generate geothermal power. If closed-loop technologies mature: geographic limitations could be reduced even further. This is why some experts describe geothermal as "underground nuclear energy" — a vast resource capable of providing reliable 24/7 power, unlike wind and solar, but one that remains largely untapped today.

🇵🇭 Solar case: Philippines Electricity prices are creating a strong rooftop solar incentive The Philippines has some of the highest electricity prices in Southeast Asia. Residential tariffs reached 14.3 PHP/kWh in May 2026, ahead of most neighboring countries. As electricity prices rise while solar system costs fall, rooftop solar payback periods have shortened significantly, from 4 years to 3.1 years, strengthening the economic case for households and businesses. Source: @ember_energy by Dave Jones and Alnie Demoral

Chinese solar exports to the Philippines reached record levels in 2026 Monthly exports of both solar panels and solar cells from China to the Philippines surged throughout 2025 and reached new highs in early 2026. Several months exceeded 1 GW of combined exports, indicating accelerating solar deployment activity across the country.

. 3 fresh and flash data points from the U.S. energy sector U.S. jet fuel production rebounds after prices doubled in March U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices briefly surged to nearly $5 per gallon in March 2026. Higher margins encouraged refiners to increase output. U.S. jet fuel production climbed above 2 million barrels per day, approaching record levels. Source: @EIAgov June 2026.

Biofuel credit prices are approaching record highs again D4 and D6 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices have risen sharply since early 2024. Higher blending targets have increased demand for compliance credits. Current prices are close to the peaks reached during 2021–2022.