(Low quality opinion post / feel free to skip)
Now that AGI isn't cool anymore, I'd like to register the opposing position.
- AGI is coming in 2026, more likely than not
- LLMs are big memorization/interpolation machines, incapable of doing scientific discoveries and working on OOD concepts efficiently. They're not sufficient for AGI. My prediction stands regardless.
- Something akin to GPT-6, while not AGI, will automate human R&D to such extent AGI would quickly follow. Precisely, AGI will happen in, at most, 6 months after the public launch of a model as capable as we'd expect GPT-6 to be.
- Not being able to use current AI to speed up any coding work, no matter how OOD it is, is skill issue (no shots fired)
- Multiple paths are converging to AGI, quickly, and the only ones who do not see this are these focusing on LLMs specifically, which are, in fact, NOT converging to AGI. Focus on "which capabilities computers are unlocking" and "how much this is augmenting our own productivity", and the relevant feedback loop becomes much clearer.