One the most important macro week of the year is about to start.
Here’s what I’m watching:
→ Warsh’s debut (Tue/Wed)
No rate move expected. That’s not the story. He’s signaled a leaner FED that communicates less. His first press conference is the closest thing we have to a 2026 rate preview.
Watch the language, that’s the decision going forward.
→ Iran deal (this week)
Still unsigned. Still contested.
But the draft includes Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
A signed deal removes the energy tail risk AND takes inflation pressure off Warsh’s table simultaneously. Two events. One outcome. Most coverage is missing that connection.
→
$MU earnings (June 24)
Entire 2026 HBM supply already sold out. 
The AI memory thesis gets confirmed or cracked on one print.
→
$SPCX post-IPO follow-through
Largest IPO in history just listed. This week tells you whether the institutional demand was real. I’m watching how
$RKLB $ASTS $PL trades relative to
$SPCX.
Four events.
All connected by the same question: how much risk is this market actually pricing?
-BP
Not financial advice. DYOR.