I still think that to be a real company, you have to be a public company. But I can confirm that losing 94% of your value is as soul-crushing as it seems (not to mention for our investors). I always felt confident that we had all the bones to get the company on track, but when you are plumbing your lowest stock price lows, you wonder: what even are the historical odds that a stock comes back from a 94% peak-to-trough drawdown, like the one OSCR experienced? Here is the answer: in a universe of 3,000 publicly traded companies with a trough valuation of at least $50M, there were 300 companies over the past 10 years that experienced a drawdown of 94% or greater and are still trading. Another 60-80 got delisted. 40 of those ~400 companies (including OSCR) had a rebound since the trough of at least 8x. So that's ~10% odds for such a comeback at the trough. Of those 40 companies, 55% are oil companies, 20% are biotech, and 10% are bitcoin miners. To be clear, we are not even close to done, and have to keep earning our way back up the top. We still have a lot of work to do. But if you can count, then you better never count us out.
(GPT-coproduced numbers here if you want to follow along:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…)