In my latest
@bsindia piece, following an Indianomics discussion with
@latha_venkatesh and Mridul Saggar, I argue that while sharpening and articulating India’s growth story is critical, policy and market distortions may also have amplified negative sentiment around the INR and deterred capital flows.
Key points:
• No cause for panic: INR weakness warrants attention, but India’s external deficits remain manageable and RBI's buffers are substantial.
• The deeper issue: India’s prolonged struggle to attract sustained net foreign capital amid persistent negative sentiment on the rupee.
• Policy silos: Interest rates, liquidity, taxation, capital flows, and currency markets are deeply interconnected, though policy debates often treat them in silos.
• Unintended consequences: Interventions to suppress interest rates, alongside tax frictions, may have unintentionally weakened capital inflows and lowered the cost of speculative positioning against the rupee.
• Distorted savings: Distortions in taxation and markets have also stunted debt market development, pushing discretionary savings disproportionately into equities.
• Navigating the Trinity: The answer is not avoiding intervention, but engaging more holistically with the “impossible trinity” linking interest rates, exchange rates, and capital flows.
• The structural fix: Rather than introducing capital controls or fresh distortions, responses should aim for deeper debt markets, balanced taxation, and a globally competitive framework for foreign capital.
The piece argues against both panic and rigid orthodoxy, in favour of a more integrated approach to monetary, currency, and fiscal policy.
bit.ly/4tWs8Fi