The Ebola outbreak has been extremely fast moving, and the news has been mostly terrible
News of potential trials of vaccines and therapeutics does lend some hope - but these are some way off
Catch up on the latest developments with me here (link in reply 👇)
No paper as the final 90-day results are just being finalized today (June 11) - they last-observation carried forward 37 of the observations from 30d for the CCR presentation.
Can debate the fine points of methods (I'm fine w/ it), but clear Tamiflu is out for ICU-level Influenza and it's an embarrassment to the field it took us this long to investigate properly.
(and that many sites wouldn't even randomize to no Tamiflu! wtf are we doing... )
#CCR26#VICTORYtrial stopped early by DSMB for futility/harm (n=238). Primary outcome (28d mortality or persistent organ dysfunction): 40.8% in intravenous vitamin C group vs. 29.7% in the placebo group.
Does this change your practice? Are you surprised? Stopped too early?
Thought I would give Claude Fable a quick whiz as sounds exciting!
As my entire job is biological research (although nothing spicy, mainly vaccine trials) it basically flags everything I do
Unusable for me currently ☹️
If there are times we don't need gold standard evidence, and "aluminium standard" is enough, how do we know how much evidence we need
My framework for deciding how much evidence is enough, and why sometimes people disagree (hint - it's not science!)
munro-link.alasdairmunro.wor…
I just said to my 9yo son,
“Some books are like snacking on sweets, and some books are like eating a succulent three course meal”
Rich words from someone whose pre-adolescent reading diet was 99% Calvin and Hobbes
The first clinical trial of a ‘universal’ Sarbeco coronavirus vaccine at 2 NIHR facilities has shown that the vaccine is safe and has no significant side effects.
The study took place at the Southampton Clinical Research Facility (@SouthamptonCRF) and the Cambridge Clinical Research Facility (@CambridgeCRF).
It was sponsored by University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust (@UHSFT) and recruitment was supported by the Research Delivery Network (@NIHRrdn).
An AI-designed ‘universal’ coronavirus vaccine trialled at @UHSFT@southamptoncrf could help protect against future viruses before they emerge 👇
Experts say this could potentially save millions of lives and avoid costly lockdowns.
🔗 research.uhs.nhs.uk/news/new…
Why does medicine have such a history of implementing therapies, only to later gather evidence and discover that the intervention provided no benefit, or worse, actually harmed patients?
How much evidence is enough?
open.substack.com/pub/alasda…
The Ebola outbreak has been extremely fast moving, and the news has been mostly terrible
News of potential trials of vaccines and therapeutics does lend some hope - but these are some way off
Catch up on the latest developments with me here (link in reply 👇)
Kudos to the WHO
The WHO involvement is very evident in the timeline markers on the chart (WHO alert, PHEIC declaration on May 17, Director-General visit to Ituri, high-risk assessment, etc.). This reflects a rapid, high-level coordinated international response to the Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak.
Bottom line
The chart below captures a serious but actively managed situation.
The reclassification PHEIC mobilization shows authorities and partners (DRC/Uganda MoH, WHO, CDC, etc.) catching up on surveillance, lab capacity, and response coordination — especially valuable in a conflict-affected area with population movement and mining-related travel.
The 26 infected healthcare workers remain a red flag for nosocomial transmission that needs urgent attention.
Uganda’s linked cases appear well-contained so far thanks to tracing.
This is exactly the kind of data-driven situational awareness that PHEIC-level coordination is meant to support. Continued focus on diagnostics, IPC in health facilities, and community trust will be key to bending the curve further.
@WHO@WHOAFRO@MarionKoopmans@SecRubio@CDCgov#EbolaDRC#Bundibugyo#PublicHealth#Outbreak#GlobalHealth
Join me for the latest updates on the Ebola outbreak
Case numbers, misinformation (some from actual "experts"), potential therapeutics in the pipelines, and what this all means with me here
If you find it useful please subscribe and share
alasdairmunro.substack.com/p…
The Ebola outbreak has been extremely fast moving, and the news has been mostly terrible
News of potential trials of vaccines and therapeutics does lend some hope - but these are some way off
Catch up on the latest developments with me here (link in reply 👇)
Join me for the latest updates on the Ebola outbreak
Case numbers, misinformation (some from actual "experts"), potential therapeutics in the pipelines, and what this all means with me here
If you find it useful please subscribe and share
alasdairmunro.substack.com/p…
I've written about how we determine how much evidence we need to answer a question
It's possible to weaponise a lack of evidence OR urgency to act to get the outcome you want - and we still see it happen often
So how do we know what to do?
Link in next post 👇
My framework for
- how to determine how much evidence is enough
- how to prevent arguing about science and certainty, when you're really arguing about decision thresholds and values
One of the most common errors during the pandemic
alasdairmunro.substack.com/p…