Bitcoin/crypto/stablecoins will never succeed at replacing visa or the dollar.
Iām gonna make a lot of people mad with this one.
What does everyone complain about when it comes to trad rails?
- too slow to settle
- too expensive
- too permissioned
But does anyone know why these consumer rails behave this way? And why they continue to behave this way?
Itās not because ābanks donāt careā (tho there is truth to this)
Itās not because āThereās no incentive to innovate in a monopolyā (tho there is truth to this)
Itās not because āthe powers that be like it this wayā (tho there is truth to this)
Itās because of 2 words. Consumer protections.
> too slow to settle
Settlement times range from 3 days for ach to land to 90 days for the chargeback window. Even more for credit card payments.
Yāall know what a chargeback is? We all hate them as merchants/providers, but when youāre a consumer and your card has been stolen - itās the only thing protecting you from a devastating financial loss.
Thatās it. Thatās the only reason domestic payments take so long to fully settle, and why we have to rely on things like intermediary float accounts, why compliance costs are so high (itās actually very easy to be aml compliant! Itās very hard to lower chargeback rates).
Stablecoins, bitcoin solve this⦠by eliminating consumer protections. Feel free to counter this point only if youāve worked customer support at a crypto payments company. Youāve seen the jarring amounts of money these people have lost, sometimes through no fault of their own. Itās horrible, devastating, and sometimes tragic. People end their lives over these situations.
What we do is no joke, and itās easy to forget that sometimes.
Chargebacks do prevent this. If you care about preventing these situations, they work quite well.
> too expensive
> too permissioned
Not just the 2-5% on each tx for visa/bank interchange that merchants pay. The compliance costs of stringent kyc (especially in EU, god have you seen the rates!!) and of kyt.
Yea itās def too much. But itās too much for 2 reasons.
1. Payment rails commoditize over time (sorry dozens of neobanks)
2. Laundering stolen crypto is common, and vigilance isnāt just a moral/social imperative, itās a legal one (shoutout binance)
So you have this situation where in order to get people to use your rail, you have to add in direct incentives (merchants somehow still go along with this bc they just pass costs down) and you have to implement heavy compliance machinery to make sure youāre not touching dirty money.
High costs mean only one thing: high volume is the only way to maintain p&l
Visa & co have the upper hand here. They have 2 things that allow their throne to be virtually dethronable
- consumer protections
- extremely high volume
If youāre a monetary usecase maxi thatās totally fine. I used to be one too. But you have to acknowledge this reality and plan accordingly.
Stablecoins can only thrive in non-consumer usecases (b2b)
Bitcoin can only thrive in speculative usecases (ngu, financial engineering like mstr, long term savings)