Netanyahu's circle and his media mouthpieces are in a state of shock and disbelief over the emerging US-Iran deal and the Trump administration's growing fury over his policies. The president today at the G7 summit didn't hold back, asserting that the Israeli prime minister needs to be "more responsible with respect to Lebanon." Yet the U.S. president risks nothing in confronting the Israeli prime minister at a time when American public opinion is turning against Israel. On the contrary, Netanyahu is a convenient scapegoat. Yet Bibi risks everything if there is a major falling out with the Trump administration. His relationship with Trump has been a cornerstone of his electoral appeal. Defying the Americans will play well to his hard-right base but it will alienate the wider Israeli electorate that is tiring of endless war. My full analysis below: 👇

Netanyahu's circle and his media mouthpieces are in a state of shock and disbelief over the emerging US-Iran deal and the Trump administration's growing fury over his policies. The president today at the G7 summit didn't hold back, asserting that the Israeli prime minister needs to be "more responsible with respect to Lebanon." Yet the U.S. president risks nothing in confronting the Israeli prime minister at a time when American public opinion is turning against Israel. On the contrary, Netanyahu is a convenient scapegoat. Yet Bibi risks everything if there is a major falling out with the Trump administration. His relationship with Trump has been a cornerstone of his electoral appeal. Defying the Americans will play well to his hard-right base but it will alienate the wider Israeli electorate that is tiring of endless war. My full analysis below: 👇

מי חשב ב-28 בפברואר שטראמפ יעדיף את שוק הנפט העולמי על פני האינטרסים של ישראל? כל מי שעיניו בראשו מלבד ״מנהיגי ישראל״ בקואליציה ובאופוזיציה כאחד. האחריות היא כמובן של נתניהו שהוביל ליום כיפור המדיני הזה אבל חשוב לזכור שגם ראשי מפלגות האופוזיציה נעמדו ועודדו את היציאה למלחמת השולל

The only Israeli Jewish politician I saw criticizing the Iran War. "The necessary deal with Iran proved once again that there is no military solution." Raz is a member of the leftist Meretz Party, which failed to cross the electoral threshold in the last elections and was merged into The Democrats party (a union with Labor).

This story will receive relatively little exposure, but it is critical. Not for the first time, it reveals just how terrified #Hamas was of normalization between #Israel and Saudi Arabia, and how determined they were to block it. Hamas succeeded, but largely thanks to Israel. The Netanyahu government's excessive use of force in #Gaza and its backing of West Bank annexation have been the ultimate roadblocks to widening the Abraham Accords. In effect, Netanyahu gave Hamas exactly what it wanted. Meanwhile, the regional landscape is shifting. There are growing signs that the Gulf States, including the UAE, are moving toward a rapprochement with Iran. A common thread runs through all of Israel's current wars: a government that treats diplomacy as a dirty word, preferring endless fighting over a coherent grand strategy. Netanyahu talks of transforming the Middle East. The terrifying reality is that he may have succeeded: just not in the way he imagined. jpost.com/middle-east/articl…

They warned me that if I voted for Kamala Harris we’d get a new deal with the Iranian regime worse than the JCPOA. I voted for Kamala, and they were right.

I will stick with what I wrote for @ASPI_org back in 2021. Looking at the region today, the deal that is emerging and the clear limits of military force, the warning stands: the Iran regime will only be more determined now to obtain a nuclear weapon. "Netanyahu has acquired a global reputation as the leading opponent of Iran’s nuclear program, yet a major part of his legacy could become associated in time with Tehran’s possible emergence as a nuclear-armed state." aspistrategist.org.au/has-ne…

This hasn't dated very well. I suspect Bibi is quietly missing Barack Obama right now. At least back then, he could rally Republicans in Congress to fight his corner. Good luck with that plan under this administration.

Remembering the late Sir Alex Younger. He wasn't just a remarkable MI6 chief. He was one of our most clear-eyed, far-sighted strategic realists. My tribute to a great public servant and his final, urgent warnings to a distracted West: ⬇️My full analysis below.

If Netanyahu has an ounce of integrity, he would resign tonight and permanently retire from politics

I have just sent out my latest weekend update: The late MI6 Chief Sir Alex Younger: "If you don’t possess hard power, you don’t get a vote... we need to rebuild our relationship with hard power." That warning goes a long way toward explaining why John Healey resigned yesterday as UK Defence Secretary. Link to the full piece is in the comments below 👇

על רקע הדיווחים על הפגישה בין טחנון בן זאיד לבין מקבילו האיראני, ועל רקע הצהרתו של הנשיא טראמפ היום, המשתלבת היטב עם התנהלותו מאז ימי המלחמה, חשוב לחדד נקודה אחת: ישראל נותרה כמעט לבדה ברצונה לשוב לעימות צבאי עם איראן. לא הממשל האמריקאי ולא מדינות המפרץ, כולל איחוד האמירויות, מעוניינים בחזרה למלחמה מול איראן. מבחינתם, המערכה האחרונה הספיקה. לעמדה הזו צפויות להיות השלכות משמעותיות גם בעתיד. במדינות המפרץ מבינים היטב כי אסור, מבחינתן, לדחוק את איראן לפינה — וזאת ללא קשר לפעולות שביצעה טהראן נגדן במהלך המלחמה. נכון, איראן נתפסת כיום כמאיימת אף יותר מבעבר, אך נדמה כי כלל השחקנים באזור (למעט ישראל) רחוקים מהמסקנה שמלחמה היא הפתרון לבעיה האיראנית..