Here's a picture of a sign posted in a New Mexico ghost town with data on gold production, prices, etc. from the late 1800s and early 1900s. Is there an analogy to today's
#AI boom here? Read on to find out...
Almost everyone is "all in" on AI. Every tech company of significance and every tech startup are investing in, developing, and integrating AI into their business. Has there been another technological development that impacted the strategies of literally the entire tech sector nearly all at once?
What does this uniformity of agreement in the Revolutionary power of AI mean for the markets?
First, if the entire tech sector (which includes probably the greatest number of geniuses on the planet) is in agreement that this technology will prove extremely useful and ultimately valuable, then it is probably a no-brainer to invest in it. Nvidia
$NVDA is the obvious beneficiary here.
Second, it opens the door for doubt to creep in. Within about a year of the ChatGPT Moment (November 2022), all large tech companies were on board with AI. Also, every VC started pouring money into AI startups pretty rapidly. As some of that VC money starts to run out for some of the earlier startup recipients, those companies will go away and some doubt might start to erode this broad consensus. The market may also start to punish the big AI spenders as it grows impatient with their ability to crank out amazing AI products. As doubt comes back, valuations will decline. Look at
$CRM $AMD $MRVL $SNOW $MBD for example.
Third, it likely means that the development cycle for AI will be much shorter than prior tech cycles. Because nearly every tech company, startup, VC, research institute, etc. is focused on moving this technology forward, it likely won’t take as long to reach critical mass as did the technologies of the past (semis, PCs, the internet, smartphones, cloud, social, etc.). This might also mean that the moves in the underlying stocks will move quickly as well. If a year or two goes by and an “AI company” isn’t seeing real results, it might be getting left behind.
Fourth, the stakes are higher for this Revolution than potentially every other Revolution. If AI doesn’t work, it will be a colossal blow to the entire tech sector, and in turn, the US economy which is now more dependent on tech than ever before. All of the billions of dollars in investment will have been wasted, and that in and of itself could lead to a recession. But what are the odds that every large tech company is wrong about this idea? Pretty low I’d say. I’m not saying it couldn’t happen (groupthink is a powerful force), but if AI doesn’t work, that means a large percentage of the world’s smartest people were dead wrong.
$QQQ $SPY $IWM $DIA.
Perhaps the analogy to today is that in the age of AI, data and tokens are the gold and Nvidia
$NVDA is selling the picks and shovels to the gold miners like Google
$GOOG, Amazon
$AMZN, and Microsoft
$MSFT.
Hopefully these modern-day gold miners don't go bust like many of those in the past did!