As we approach the Super Bowl, you are going to see a lot of Super Bowl prop trends posted, which is basically the laziest form of analysis and/or engagement farming.
“Shortest TD under has hit 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls” tells you basically nothing without price and context. Different teams, different play styles, different totals, different red zone tendencies, differences in the way the game is officiated. It’s not one repeating experiment. 8/10 on something across 10 different games with 20 different teams doesn’t mean it’s due or predictive.
From 2009–2014 we had 4 safeties in 6 Super Bowls. That didn’t mean safeties were suddenly a 67% event going forward.
Trends aren’t edges. The question is always the same... is the price good? The only thing that matters is the price.