Good decisions come from experience. Experience comes from bad decisions.

Defense tech seed pitch: we have one guy who used to work at anduril Defense tech series C pitch: our existing VCs control the government

"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by…" With US and Israeli strikes now underway, three prediction sources are pricing the probability of regime change. One was ahead of the other two. ——— 🔵 Kalshi (human-traded, by Sep 1): Flat at ~48-50 all week. Spikes to 64 on the strikes. ⚪ Polymarket (human-traded, by Dec 31): Flat at ~48-50 all week. Spikes to 74 on the strikes. 🔴 Vico (AI-powered, by Dec 31): Steady climb from ~65 to 78.5 over 10 days — pricing in the escalation before most humans were trading it. ——— The human-traded markets sat still while diplomacy played out. Vico's AI models were reading the buildup — carrier deployments, military surges, failed talks — and adjusting daily. In this instance, the crowd moved on the headline and the AI moved on the signal.

RT @NAChristakis: I had the same thought. But the details here by an expert commentator are informative.

VCs leaving AI back to crypto x.com/fartconthird/status/17…

Over past 5 years, median listing price of U.S. home has risen from $320k to $445k, while median square footage has fallen from 1,996 to 1,916 per ⁦@realtordotcom⁩ ⁦@DataArbor⁩

We are pleased to announce the addition of six new senior fellows who will be joining us. Welcome, @kierstentodt, @bradonrogers, @BradMedairy, @bsware, Chris Roberti and John Katko! eng.auburn.edu/news/2024/05/…

Here is a remarkable section where Microsoft tells the CSRB that it realized its initial public statements about the incident were inaccurate but that it didn't want to update those statements because doing so would "entail disclosure of attorney-client privileged information."

Thanks to the CSRB for its work on this important issue. @CISAgov plans to convene major CSPs to develop cloud security practices aligned with the CSRB recommendations and a process for CSPs to regularly attest to & demonstrate alignment. go.dhs.gov/JRT

Very proud of the work of the Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) on this important review of the 2023 Microsoft Exchange Online intrusion that affected a number of national security officials And the threat actor responsible is the same one that did Operation Aurora in 2009!

Today, DHS released the Cyber Safety Review Board’s (CSRB) report summarizing the findings of its review into attacks associated with the 2023 Microsoft Exchange Online intrusion. Learn more here⬇️ cisa.gov/resources-tools/res…

Last January, I noticed something peculiar in my 2yo’s bedroom that - after a year of obsessive reporting - led me to a profound cosmic revelation about what’s even possible in our universe. A 🧵.

RT @likethecoins: I am disappointed and infuriated that CTI League members are being made into villains. Groups like this are critical and…

I have released a statement about our work in the CTI League. Yesterday I provided this and additional material as testimony to congress. Today we have made our github public and opened up all our files. cti-league.com/statement-by-… Details are in this statement. 1/5

🚨U.S. @DeptofDefense joins @NCSC & Five Eye partners @CyberGovAU, @cybercentre_ca, NCSC-NZ with @NSACyber, @CISAgov & @FBI exposing #RussianFSB ties to cyber actor #StarBlizzard and their 🎯spear-phishing campaigns. Learn more about mitigation actions: cybercom.mil/Media/News/Arti…

The UK gov just attributed COLDRIVER (UNC4057/Callisto/Star Blizzard) to FSB Center 18 and summoned the Russian ambassador. They carry out fairly typical Russian cyber espionage, but their habit of leaking stolen documents makes them interesting. 1/x gov.uk/government/news/uk-ex…

“The three stages of career development are: 1. I want to be in the meeting 2. I want to run the meeting 3. I want to avoid meetings." h/t @jayferro

These two ETFs mimic the holding of Democrats and Republicans based on their disclosure filings. The Democrats (blue) are outperforming not only the Republicans (red) but also the S&P 500 (black). As I note in the chart title, is this because Democrats are better investors, or just more corrupt? (Serious answer: Democrats tend to be heavily invested in tech, Republicans in energy. In 2022, this benefited Republicans. In 2023, it is benefiting Democrats.)

NEW: Acting National Cyber Director Kemba Walden will step down next Friday, Walden has confirmed to Politico. Caps a critical 10-month run atop the White House cyber office. Walden led the roll-out of the new cyber strategy during that time. subscriber.politicopro.com/a…