My BTC target for this bear is 61k. Just a 51% correction, piece of cake fam. Will also say something positive because people like hearing about things going up, not down: after the bottom, fresh new ponzis will come, and with them the opportunity of endless richness. People think it's over every time, but fam, ponzi schemes exist since the dawn of humanity (lmao, maybe?). Well at least since 1636 on the tulip bubble.

TREASURY SAYS IT CANNOT BAIL OUT BITCOIN Senator Sherman asked if the Treasury could intervene to “bail out Bitcoin.” Treasury Secretary Bessent responded that he has no authority to use taxpayer dollars to buy the cryptocurrency.

I continue reading my notes (yes its more than 1000 pages on 5 different google docs lmao). I keep laughing at all the bullishness about Ethereum: whenever ETH appreciation questions got hard, the answer was basically: "don’t worry, there are extremely smart people working on this." 🤣 Also, btw, I know people got extremely frustrated by this cycle, but i'm pretty sure that for BTC maximalists they never had better mental health during a cycle. Myself I used to suffer much more during bulls than bears, honestly, just because ETH overperformance over BTC and all the flippening narratives that didnt make sense but everyone believed in. Feeling vindicated.

I continue reading my notes (yes its more than 1000 pages on 5 different google docs lmao). I keep laughing at all the bullishness about Ethereum: whenever ETH appreciation questions got hard, the answer was basically: "don’t worry, there are extremely smart people working on this." 🤣 Also, btw, I know people got extremely frustrated by this cycle, but i'm pretty sure that for BTC maximalists they never had better mental health during a cycle. Myself I used to suffer much more during bulls than bears, honestly, just because ETH overperformance over BTC and all the flippening narratives that didnt make sense but everyone believed in. Feeling vindicated.

In the bear market of 2018 I was digging on reddit posts about Decred and what people were predicting would be the prices in 2018. Check this confidence

My BTC target for this bear is 61k. Just a 51% correction, piece of cake fam. Will also say something positive because people like hearing about things going up, not down: after the bottom, fresh new ponzis will come, and with them the opportunity of endless richness. People think it's over every time, but fam, ponzi schemes exist since the dawn of humanity (lmao, maybe?). Well at least since 1636 on the tulip bubble.

In the bear market of 2018 I was digging on reddit posts about Decred and what people were predicting would be the prices in 2018. Check this confidence

In May of 2022 this is what people were saying: "people from the 2017 era think that we will have another winter, but the thing is that the crypto in 2022 is not nearly similar as how it was in 2017"

The following dialogue was in my notes from late 2021. These things are good to review so you remember the feeling of being in a market where everybody is extremely delusional and have tons of arguments to confirm their bias Question: Do you have any thoughts on TaschaLabs bear case for Ethereum? Answer: I think the general thesis presented in this article here is very much flawed. The core thesis seems to be “As activity migrates to L2, tx count on Ethereum base layer will drop and so will the base layer fees and this will push ETH price down.” To begin with this argument completely neglects the fact that almost all txs on Ethereum have always been off-chain (does CEXs ring a bell ?) What’s worse is that Rollups, unlike other L2s, have to post tx data to L1. ORUs have to do this for pretty much every tx and ZKRollups for every state diff. So every activity on L2 will accrue value to Ethereum base layer. Fees going down w/o security compromise is always bullish because it grows the pie. Also, on-chain fees are important but they are not sole indicators of price. Last week, Avalanche fees were twice of Solana and Ethereum fees were 115x of Bitcoin. Finally, I think other EVM compatible L1s do accrue significant value to Ethereum because a significant portion of their liquidity depends on Ethereum native assets ported over a bridge which essentially acts as a supply sink on Ethereum.

Back to reviewing notes! In 2018, people were guessing that gambling and gaming would be the first dapps to win. The thesis was that they fit well with the internet permissionless money 24/7 markets. They also don’t require perfect regulatory clarity to get usage. I guess the casino part really played out. I wonder if gaming still has a chance. I hope so, then we can go back to playing random games and pretend we’re doing investment research.

still reviewing my notes from previous cycles. @APompliano once said something that I really liked: “One of the greatest market arbitrages is having the longest time horizon”. I believe this applies today at current market: - short-term players must decide: has BTC topped? should I sell? - long-term players just think: maybe it goes to $150k , or maybe down to $70k first, and then to $150k

Bear markets are just as good as bull markets if your only goal is the increase your amount of BTCs. Both altcoins and USD are shitcoins we should trade in and out of to accomplish this. Bears markets are fun!