im einwohnerstärksten bundesstaat kalifornien dauert das auszählen aller stimmen mehrere wochen. das könnte zu der absurden situation führen, dass ein demokrat einen republikaner einholen könnte, der noch am wahltag 9% vorne lag.
der glaubwürdigkeit des systems hilft das nicht
CA Gov Full Race Update
Based on our current total turnout estimate, roughly 52.7% of the vote was early and 47.3% will be late-counted ballots.
Hilton carried the early vote by 8.2 points (and 410k votes) over Steyer, which means Steyer needs to run about 17.2 points better than Hilton statewide in the remaining late vote to overtake him. However, because Democratic-leaning counties are expected to make up a larger share of the outstanding vote, our county-adjusted estimate is that Steyer needs to improve by about 15.5 points within each county.
So far today, Steyer has improved by a weighted average of 10.5 points, which is short of the pace he likely needs, but still a strong shift in that direction. Importantly, only about 4% of the late mail came in today, so the picture could change substantially as larger batches report tomorrow.
At this point, Hilton remains favored. But Steyer still has a viable path if late mail continues moving left, especially if Democratic-leaning counties in the Bay Area and other blue parts of the state are lagging in their reporting.
Tomorrow’s vote drops will be critical in determining whether he will close the gap enough to overtake Hilton.