Love..world events,Strong Bow,Politics,Bob Marley, Science,Sailing,Dancing,HATE..Closed Minds
Joined March 2009
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176 Photos and videos
RT @peterjukes: One of the reasons the Spectator was so intent in denigrating Carole Cadwalladr’s Cambridge Analytica stories is that its o…
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Strait of Hormuz transit will take ‘weeks’ to resume, largest tanker operator tells FT reut.rs/4uOdsso reut.rs/4uOdsso
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Good work by Robin Brooks. As he concludes in a recent post is that the experience from the Straits crisis is that global markets could adjust to a mist more aggressive sanctions regime on Russian energy. The easiest way to force Russia into serious peace talks.
Jun 14
Those who've pushed $150 or $200 oil forecasts are now busy inventing bad excuses to cover their tracks. The favorite excuse is China capped oil by importing less. That's nonsense. China stabilizes nothing. Just look at all its transshipments to Russia...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
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The @BBCNews has now confirmed what some of us warned for years.
A Russian diplomat ran a sabotage campaign on British soil: arson against the Prime Minister’s own home, and fake far-right and Islamist groups built to turn us against each other. This is not crime. It is how war is fought by powers who don’t want to expose their hand. bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8r2…
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A) This a properly brilliant piece of investigative journalism by BBC & @hopenothate. Huge kudos to all involved.
B) The Kremlin operative who BBC names as directing arson attacks against Keir Starmer was taught his tradecraft by…drumroll…Sergei Nalobin !!! Pictured here with Boris Johnson. Also: the star of our podcast series, Sergei & the Westminster Spy Ring! Wtaf
Russia was behind arson attacks targeting UK PM Keir Starmer, BBC reveals
bbc.in/3Q3lOy1
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Interesting questions
🔘How significant is the fate of sanctioned Iranian tankers in determining how quickly Iranian oil can return to global markets?
🔘Will the Hormuz risk premium become a permanent feature of oil and LNG pricing, similar to a structural shift in the market?
🔘Will insurance premiums and shipping rates for Gulf-origin cargoes permanently stay higher even after the Strait of Hormuz normalize?
🔘Does the agreement resolve or merely pause the two core long-term risks: the nuclear issue and the Hormuz dilemma?
🔘What does the successful transit of the Disha LNG carrier with AIS on signify, and what risks still remain?
🔘Could fake attack reports or rogue incidents become a new source of market volatility even under the cease-fire?
🔘Are oil executives genuinely warning about low inventories, or are their statements primarily “talking their books” ahead of higher prices and strong profits?
🔘Why has Iraq requested a one-year extension of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline deal, and what does this reveal about the difficulty of reaching a permanent agreement?
🔘How is ADNOC shifting security and insurance risks to buyers in the current environment?
🔘Could converting weapons-grade plutonium meaningfully alleviate near-term US nuclear fuel shortages, or is it primarily a waste-management solution?
🔘Can vessels with scrubbers or alternative fuel capability mitigate the impact of VLSFO/HSFO shortages?
Daily Energy Report open.substack.com/pub/afalha…
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Footage 👇🏻
(In case you were wondering, Israel and Hezbollah are still at war)
JUST NOW 🔴
Iron dome active in Kiryat Shmona, no sirens. Apparently a Hezbollah drone or rocket attack in the area
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US President Donald Trump keeps repeating that the Strait of Hormuz — through which one fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally flow — will reopen by Friday.
But on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit, where Iran will dominate Monday’s dinner conversation, it’s clear that his European allies don’t share his optimism. They disagree that trade can resume by week’s end, like Trump promised, and have practical questions about what exactly was agreed before they can commit to de-mining missions and patrols. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Maersk welcomes US-Iran deal, but makes no change to Middle East operation yet reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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Turkish businesswoman Canan Çelebioğlu:
We entered India and became the largest ground handling company there.
I was obsessed with India — I called it my second country.
Last year, around May 15th, the Indian government shut us down.
They seized all our equipment, transferred 10,000 employees to another company in a single day — and wiped out a value we had built of perhaps $400–500 million.
Gone in one day.
Put the financial loss aside. That place was built stitch by stitch.
We spent years pushing the government to change policies, to develop the sector.
And I loved India. That's what made it so shocking. It truly devastated us.
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New video: U.S. Government Begins BANNING the Public From AI Models That Are Too Powerful
brightvideos.com/play/vid-79…
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The war is over so sulfur prices should be down, right?
Right?
(Up 12%)
Jun 8
Sulfur prices have nearly doubled from here
They are at all-time highs and up 140% since the beginning of the Iran War 🇮🇷
This ought to have consequences on fertilizer and commodities such as Ags, Nickel, Lithium, Copper, Silver
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Real disposable income growth per capita has turned negative. This was already low before US/Iran.
The consumer story is deteriorating.
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Durable goods manufacturing production is surging, lifted by the AI buildout.
The same spending is what shows up as business equipment investment in the GDP report.
Here's the map and flowchart on how to read GDP and the cycle:
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Jun 15
Ship traffic in the Strait of #Hormuz on 15 June till 11am UTC.
Based on @Kpler data, crossings still remaining limited while there are more than 500 commercial vessels that have given an AIS signal in the Persian Gulf during the last 24hrs.
Video via @MarineTraffic.
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Jun 15
Americans have seen the national average price of gasoline and diesel fall for 5 straight weeks- and while it appears we may now make it 6 or potentially more, much will still be contingent on how the deal gets implemented (or how one party may walk away?)
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Jun 15
Markets are trading as if the crisis is over, writes Rabobank's @BenPicton1
But what we appear to have is a 60-day agreement to discuss an agreement
Hormuz isn't open yet. The nuclear dispute isn't resolved. Inventories are depleted
Buy the headline, ignore the reality
#Oil #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Brent #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #Iran #MiddleEast #Shipping #OilMarkets
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