Oil analyst formerly known as Lord Crudehead: funder of hedges; professional drinker of your milkshake. #OOTT
Joined September 2012
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20h
Something changed early May.
Hormuz leakage became material.
It has compounded since then.
Satellites only give you one side of the story.
#OOTT
Last week (June 8), before the US-Iran deal was announced, I published this @Opinion column about the re-start of oil production in the Persian Gulf region.
I argued it would go much faster than many are expecting. I still think that's the case.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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Jun 9
IRGC been very quiet over the past 24 hours...
..something cooking in the kitchen?
#OOTT
May 7
The military top brass of the IRGC have been very quiet over the past 24 hours....
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Jun 7
i)Record US exports (temp/unsustainable)
ii)Sharp/unexpected drop in Chinese demand (incorrect, Chinese demand is down (a little) but stocks drawing bigly (SPR commercial, but same thing since it Commie China)
#OOTT
Hormuz has been shut for over 3 months. Why isn’t oil $200?
🇺🇸 Record US exports
🇨🇳 Sharp/unexpected drop in Chinese demand
🛢️ Pre-war surplus and SPR releases
🗺️ Gulf producers reroute some supply
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Jun 7
iii) Pre-war surplus and SPR release (yes, having a big impact right here, right now
iv) Gulf producers reroute some supply (E/W flows not a solver as initially believed) but what's under-reported is the leakage of oil via Hormuz (could be 2mln bbls/d> )
#OOTT
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Jun 7
🛑 Lloyd's List: Iran cuts Strait of Hormuz transit fees sharply
🛑 Lloyd's List reports Iran has materially reduced fees for transits of the Strait of Hormuz. Current per-transit charges reach up to $120,000 for bulk carriers and $160,000 for tankers, with rates varying by vessel type, cargo and owner nationality. That contrasts with charges of roughly $1-2m per vessel at the start of the conflict.
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May 29
Sell crude the ‘MOU rumour/vibes’, buy it on the ‘MOU release’
#OOTT
May 29
I wonder if they're actually going to release the text of the deal this time or if it's just going to be another vibes-based ceasefire where the deal is whatever various American/Iranian/Pakistani leaks claim it to be
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May 28
Why can't he capitalize 'bp'?
Very irritating.
#OOTT
May 28
MUST READ: BP former chairman Albert Manifold issues a lengthy statement setting his view of his tenure at the British oil company. And he hints strongly about clashes over “unnecessary or excessive expenditure.”
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May 21
1/ Welcome to the China grey area.
If China is not SPR releasing then we will never know.
If China is releasing we will never officially (or semi- officially) know.
If you were certain that China was releasing & had evidence/sources you run the risk of jail time.
#OOTT
May 21
The scale of the reduction in Chinese oil imports is increasingly difficult to explain with available data.
On paper, Beijing is currently running its economy with ~1/4 less oil than pre-war. But demand destruction (or shift in petchem feedstock) can hardly explain *all* of it. So is China drawing hard on difficult-to-track commercial stocks of refined products? Has it tapped underground SPR sites? All of the above?
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May 21
2/ But since it is not clear and not obvious what defines a state secret then everything and anything is a state secret.
Bottom line is China will do what it needs to do for China.
Why have an SPR if you are not going to use it?
#OOTT
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May 16
For all the millennials out there: Blackstone IPO’d in June 2007.
On the day that was in it CNBC interviewed Tom Wolfe live from the NYSE: “We may be witnessing the end of capitalism as we know it."
Mic drop comment.
Rest is history…
May 15
Jim Cramer said he is worried that the SpaceX IPO could be ‘destructive’ for the rest of the stock market - CNBC
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May 14
What's "Motherhood and apple pie" in mandarin?
#OOTT
On Iran:
US Says Xi Made Clear China Opposes Militarization of Hormuz
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Crudehead🛢 retweeted
May 12
Thinking more about this. This is almost exactly how the Chandlers (secretive Kiwi multi billionaires) made all their money. No 5 ten baggers in a row per se but 5 multi baggers, in a row, rolling the entire stack forward each time (with leverage.
Went from a few hundred k to >$10bn over 25yrs or something like that
You only need three 10-baggers in order to go from $1 million to $1 billion.
$1m to $10m
$10m to $100m
$100m to $1bn
If you’re starting with $10k, you only need five.
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Crudehead🛢 retweeted
May 12
The other point is - and it’s one I really agree with - that despite the facetious framing it’s really an affirmation of massive concentration. Forget the 10 baggers, you need to make massively concentrated bets to build wealth, if you are starting small. Diversification does nothing for you if you don’t have your chip stack at the beginning.
That is - max conviction; high concentration; oh and you have to be right.
Upside/downside skew is the real big differentiator in my personal worldview vs Wasteland (I’m guessing) but that’s a separate discussion
You only need three 10-baggers in order to go from $1 million to $1 billion.
$1m to $10m
$10m to $100m
$100m to $1bn
If you’re starting with $10k, you only need five.
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May 10
Word up.
#OOTT
May 8
For scale: The average annual GLOBAL oil & natural gas CAPEX for 2022-2025 was ~$575bn...
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May 10
This is excellent.
But it is also a post on LinkedIn that is worth 5 mins of your life reading. Unlike everything else on LinkedIn.
May 6
After one too many conversations of “but the futures curve says…” I put together a short deck to explain that no it doesn’t
linkedin.com/posts/energysec…
@Rory_Johnston @chigrl @gbrew24 @JoeMcMonigle @MBazilian @T_Mason_H @SheDrills @JavierBlas @ArjunNMurti @Bob_McNally @kevinbookdc @AzizSapphire
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May 8
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May 8
Must say this is is pure genius (but dangerously close to the rabbit hole)
#OOTT
Some ships are burning hard in the designated "safe" Omani water transit corridor.
Likely two ships drifting, maybe three.
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May 7
The military top brass of the IRGC have been very quiet over the past 24 hours....
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Crudehead🛢 retweeted
May 5
I’ve decided to make Oil 101 online second edition free.
Because clearly the world needs more experts before the next spike hits.
Grab it now while you still can and pretend like me that you saw it coming.
morgandowney.com/book
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