Blockchain x AI | All views my own

Joined March 2019
24 Photos and videos
Dan retweeted
the SEC just proposed rescinding Rule 611 of Reg NMS, the trade-through rule that has defined US equity market structure since 2005 this is a tradfi story, yes, but this is also one of the biggest unlocks yet for tokenized stocks 👇
15
56
247
215,020
Dan retweeted
It was a busy week at @Strive last week! In the 4 days from our prior reporting we captured ~61.6% of the daily natural supply of Bitcoin. With these purchases, we have now passed RIOT and Coinbase to become the 7th largest pubco holder of Bitcoin.
Strive acquired an additional 1,109 $BTC for ~$85.4 million at an average cost of ~$76,988 per bitcoin. STRIVE SNAPSHOT Bitcoin holdings: 16,500 QTD BTC Yield: 11.0% YTD BTC Yield: 23.4% Amplification ratio: 45.2% $ASST $SATA
35
69
782
30,445
Dan retweeted
JUST IN: Tether just announced they acquired SoftBank's entire ($780 million) stake in Jack Mallers' #Bitcoin treasury company Twenty One Capital $XXI.
36
99
1,047
221,850
Dan retweeted
🚨🚨SPY PRE-MARKET ALERT | Friday May 15 | Monthly OpEx | Warsh Day 1 $748.17 close. Futures down 1.2%. Nasdaq futures down 1.6%. The gamma cliff is here. THE INVERSION: GEX: -$1.18B. Yesterday at 2 PM it was $1.18B. A $2.4 billion swing. The largest overnight GEX inversion of the entire cycle. The gamma blanket didn't thin. It flipped negative. Dealers are now amplifying moves, not absorbing them. $740 accelerator: -$469M. The largest single accelerator we have ever recorded. Larger than the $318M at $710 that dominated FOMC week. Larger than anything during the April selloffs. And it's 1.1% below yesterday's close. Seven accelerators below price: $740: -$469M (1.1% below) $739: -$170M (1.2% below) $738: -$233M (1.4% below) $737: -$73M (1.5% below) $736: -$73M (1.6% below) $735: -$155M (1.8% below) $730: -$144M (2.4% below) $1.32B of negative gamma within 2.4% below price. If futures hold at -1.2%, the open lands directly in the accelerator zone. Every tick lower from there gets amplified. Charm: 1.6M. Yesterday it was 123K. Thirteen times higher. This is the monthly OpEx forcing dealers to sell at the fastest rate we've ever measured. 4.39M contracts expire today. 3.42M puts. The gamma drain we mapped for three weeks is happening in real-time. Dealers short 169.8M shares. Down from yesterday's record 217.4M. Dealers sold 47.6M shares overnight. The engine lost 22% of its capacity before the market even opened. Put OI surged to 15.06M. Up from 14.05M. A million new puts appeared overnight. Same pattern as the April 23 crisis: massive put building in the after-hours before the accelerators fire. THE CATALYSTS: Trump-Xi summit ended without a breakthrough on Hormuz. Both agreed the Strait must remain open but no framework for reopening. Oil back above $104 WTI, $108 Brent. The sell-the-news scenario we mapped played out. Tech profit-taking across the board. Intel -4%, AMD -3%, Micron -3%, Nvidia -2%. The AI trade that powered the rally is giving back gains. Warsh takes over as Fed Chair today. His first statement arrives into the most volatile structural session since the ceasefire. WHAT THIS MEANS: This is the May 15 gamma cliff we've published about since the first week of May. The rolloff post said surviving gamma drops to 2.54M after today. The thinnest blanket since mid-April. That was the projection. The reality is worse: GEX is already -$1.18B before the rolloff even happens. The only magnets: $750 ( $134M) at 0.2% above yesterday's close, $745 ( $101M), $755 ( $113M). They exist but they're overwhelmed by the accelerators below. GEX flip: $667. Cushion: 9.8%. The deep floor is far. This is not a structural crisis. It's the calendar doing exactly what we said it would do. RISING WEDGE: Day 9 of 20.8. The adverse move pushed to $748.17 ( 2.2% from $732.28 detection). If the selloff takes us back through $732, the pattern confirms on the gamma cliff day. That's the convergence scenario we mapped. The bottom line: The gamma cliff arrived. GEX inverted $2.4B overnight. The largest accelerator we've ever recorded loaded at $740. Dealers sold 47.6M shares before the open. Charm at 13x normal. Tech selling off. Summit disappointed. Warsh's first day. We told our readers: enjoy the target, respect the cliff. The target was hit. The cliff is here. The next few sessions determine whether this is a healthy reset or the rising wedge resolving. The structure says wider ranges. The calendar says the suppression is gone. The data says buckle up. $750 is the magnet above. $740 is the accelerator below. $730 is the chain reaction. $667 is the floor. Day 9 of 20.8. $SPY $QQQ $VIX
10
11
87
5,974
Dan retweeted
Strategy to repurchase $1.5 billion principal amount of 2029 convertible notes. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy-…
456
698
7,118
1,955,645
Dan retweeted
⚡️The real phenomenon is absorption without repricing. That is the phase before violent moves. When a massive buyer says they can buy $100M, $200M, $300M and price does not move, the naive read is: “Bitcoin demand is not strong enough.” The better read is: there is still a large supply wall being transferred into stronger hands. Price does not move when big buying is matched by equally large selling, OTC inventory, market-maker liquidity, ETF creation/redemption plumbing, arbitrage desks, miners, treasury sellers, old holders taking profit, or leveraged traders fading the move. The screen only shows the final print. It does not show the silent migration of ownership underneath. A big buyer like Strategy is usually not market-buying like a retail ape. They are not smashing the ask and announcing “number go up.” They are likely using execution desks, algorithms, OTC channels, VWAP/TWAP style programs, liquidity windows, and negotiated blocks. The goal is to acquire size without moving the market against themselves. So the buyer itself can suppress the visible move. That sounds counterintuitive, but it is basic execution logic. A disciplined whale does not want price to explode during accumulation. They want to sit there and absorb. They let sellers come to them. They avoid chasing. They break the order into pieces. They use liquidity when it appears. They create as little visible footprint as possible. That means price can look dead while the float is being eaten. This is the part most people miss: price is set by the marginal coin, not total buying. If a large buyer absorbs a giant seller at $X, price may not rise. But the seller is now gone. The supply that would have capped the next move has been removed. Later, when a smaller buyer comes in, the market moves faster because the earlier absorption already cleared the wall. That is why Saylor’s line about price rising after they stopped buying is believable structurally. During the program, the desk absorbs available supply carefully. After the program, the market has less sell-side depth left. Then normal buying can lift price because the heavy seller is no longer sitting there. The deeper mechanism is hidden float compression. Bitcoin’s displayed liquidity is fake in the sense that total supply is not tradable supply. A huge amount of BTC is lost, cold-stored, tax-locked, ETF-held, treasury-held, whale-held, or psychologically unavailable. What actually trades is the marginal float. If Strategy, ETFs, and long-duration holders keep pulling coins out of that float, the market can appear liquid until the exact moment it becomes violently illiquid. That is the ignition setup. A market can absorb billions quietly when sellers are present. Then one day the sellers are exhausted, liquidity thins, and price gaps higher on demand that would not have mattered before. The move looks sudden to outsiders. Underneath, the move was prepared by months of quiet absorption.
"We've bought $100M an hour, it doesn't move price. We've bought $200M an hour, it doesn't move price. We've bought $300M an hour, and stopped...price goes up." - @saylor STRC fueled BTC buy this week on pace to be $1Billion. That's $2.35M of BTC/minute or $140M of BTC/hour.
37
68
600
91,294
Dan retweeted
Michael Saylor is TAKING OVER the WORLD right now and everyone is ASLEEP. $STRC just did almost HALF A BILLION DOLLARS of trading volume in one day. If Strategy captured 80% of that volume like they did last month, that is $397.28M of capital. At $80,000 per Bitcoin, that is 4,966 BTC potentially added to the balance sheet in ONE trading day. To understand how insane this is: Hundreds of S&P 500 companies do not make $397M in profit in an entire quarter. They need 90 days of sales, payroll, inventory, debt, HR, conference calls, and corporate hostage videos to produce less profit than Strategy can potentially raise through one preferred security in one 6.5 hour market session. Starbucks does an average of $342 million of profit per QUARTER. Dollar Tree does $321 million of profit per QUARTER. So if Strategy can plausibly raise or deploy around $300M to $400M in a single trading day through STRC, you are comparing one preferred-security capital-raising day to the average quarterly profit engine of dozens of S&P 500 companies. That is OBSCENE scale. And Strategy can convert that capital into Bitcoin. The hardest asset on Earth. The bears are still talking about mNAV while Saylor is building a capital machine that can inhale quarterly-profit-sized chunks of the S&P 500 before dinner. Probably nothing.
71
206
1,522
46,534
May 12
Andrew Thrasher's Volatility Tsunami indicator is flashing red today $VIX papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
1
45
Dan retweeted
Reminder about that paper I wrote back in 2017 about the VIX.
6
4
71
82,984
Dan retweeted

40
76
505
154,224
Dan retweeted
Strategy selling 1,500 Bitcoin to pay a month's dividends and then buying 50,000 Bitcoin the next week would have the bears so absolutely flabbergasted 🤣🤣🤣
119
185
3,290
120,940
Dan retweeted
Replying to @JoshMandell6
@JoshMandell6 4x MNAV on the table at 444K?
7
10
160
17,072
Dan retweeted
The XXI / Strike / Tether-linked business merger was the obvious part. I speculated about that from the get-go. The real question was always: how do they make money? 🤔 Today we got the answer. 🎯 $XXI is acquiring (rumored hugely profitable) Strike for financial services and distribution. They're acquiring Elektron for its massive hashrate, nearly 5% of the security of the entire Bitcoin network. ⛏️ Tether is providing Strike a $2.1B credit facility to fund Bitcoin-backed loans. Mallers said "try me. Give me an order you don't think I can fill." 💪 Then they securitize the mining revenue and the loan book, sell those securities to capital markets for cash, and use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. Leverage the treasury. Repeat. 🔁 Mining feeds the treasury. Lending feeds the treasury. Capital markets feed the treasury. And Jack's in the lab designing products to sell to the markets.🧑‍🔬 Jack's grandfather chaired the Chicago Board of Trade. His father founded one of Chicago's largest futures brokerages. He's steeped in this stuff. Paolo has access to capital with Tether. SoftBank is the massive investment company backing them. 🏛️ The PIECES were always there. Today is the ASSEMBLY. 🧩 $XXI is becoming The Bitcoin Company. Good luck, @JackMallers. 😎 Don't forget to Stay Orange. 🟠
BREAKING: XXI CEO Jack Mallers just announced plans to build a #Bitcoin conglomerate $XXI is acquiring Strike for financial services, Elektron for mining, securitizing cash flows in capital markets, and pursuing M&A of BTC companies "We don't just buy Bitcoin. We produce it."🔥
19
46
389
38,622
Dan retweeted
In case you missed @jackmallers' talk on $XXI: Jack Mallers just laid out the XXI vision at Bitcoin Vegas, and this is exactly what he's been waiting to share. The headline: @tether is proposing to merge @Strike (Mallers’ payments company) AND Electron (Tether’s Bitcoin mining infrastructure — ~50 EH/s, roughly 5% of the entire network) into 21. One entity, one mission. His framework was sharp. Two axes: Bitcoin conviction vs operating income. • Coinbase / Robinhood / Binance: high cash flow, low conviction. Coinbase holds 10x more fiat than BTC on its balance sheet. Robinhood is built for speculation. • Bitcoin treasury cos (MSTR, etc.): max conviction, no real operating business. Mallers wants the upper-right quadrant nobody is occupying yet. Four divisions to get there: 1. Financial services — brokerage, custody, lending, payments, prime, banking 2. Physical infrastructure — industrial-scale mining via Electron, vertically integrated from energy to BTC 3. Capital markets — issue against the treasury, securitize mining revenue and the loan book, BTC-backed debt, non-dilutive leverage from cash flow 4. M&A — acquire profitable Bitcoin companies at attractive valuations He drew clear lines: not building another crypto casino, not listing alts, not pushing prediction-market gambling. Also explicitly not just a treasury vehicle. XXI today: 43,514 BTC, 2nd-most of any public corp. When you add Strike’s rails and Electron’s hashrate and you get something nobody has actually tried: a vertically integrated Bitcoin company with treasury, cash flows, physical production, and a capital markets engine all pointed at the same target. This is the bet. Kudos, @jackmallers
2
4
26
809
Apr 15
Anyone else catch the falling wedge? #BTC has broken out of it and looks ready to run if it reaches $74,500 or higher
1
2
32
Apr 15
2
17
Dan retweeted

56
201
766
354,954
Dan retweeted
Mar 24
Advancing confidential computing for a more secure AI future. Together with @manifoldlabs, we’re exploring how Intel TDX and Intel Trust Authority help enable confidential workloads across decentralized infrastructure, including @TargonCompute's Targon Cloud platform—protecting data at rest, in transit, and in use.
59
249
1,007
403,705
Dan retweeted
Bittensor has evolved beyond AI inference. Templar's Covenant-72B trained 72 billion parameters on 1.1 trillion tokens without a centralized cluster, the largest decentralized pre-training run to date. Over 70 permissionless nodes on commodity internet connections achieved 94.5% compute utilization and outperformed LLaMA-2-70B on MMLU. Subnets are growing across distinct use cases like drug discovery and autonomous driving.
10
66
306
45,780
New Retro9000 Grantees Selected 🔺 6 projects have been awarded retroactive grants totalling $160K from the $40M funding pool, recognising teams shipping L1s and infrastructure tooling live on Avalanche. Build. Deliver impact. Get rewarded.
57
104
325
41,650