Sorry, but this needs to be said again and again, until it is fully understood and accepted:
🇷🇺 The Russian Army has been fought to a standstill in Ukraine - 1.4 million casualties with about 400K deaths. The sheer scale of human and equipment losses is staggering.
🇷🇺 It means Russia is not going to precipitate a second war anytime soon. However, the Russian economy has proved to be much stronger and more resilient than Western analysts expected. Military spending has sustained growth even if inflation is high and energy export income has fallen.
🇷🇺 It is entirely possible that a peace deal could be concluded within the next 12 months. Any such agreement will only be signed off by Putin if it gifts him a large chunk of Ukraine. This will allow him to declare victory and remain in power.
🇷🇺 When the conflict with Ukraine ends, Russia will not immediately revert to a non-wartime economy. Peace will give Putin a much needed breathing space which he will use to rearm and retrain his battered army. It is likely to take a decade before Russia regains any credible military strength while the economy recovers — and it is entirely possible that China will support Russia’s rearmament process. So we could see a Russian military resurgence within 5 years. This is the risk.
🇷🇺 Whatever happens, there is no inexorable path to war with Russia. But if we do nothing, if we refuse to bolster our defences when time is on our side, it’s the same as leaving the door unlocked — we will invite aggression, because Putin is strategically ambitious and opportunistic.
🇷🇺 A strong Europe, fully prepared, with potent and flexible capabilities, plus resilient and scalable economic production, would definitely deter aggression, just as NATO’s Cold War presence in Europe kept the peace for almost half a century.
🇬🇧 So,we have a straightforward binary choice: deter aggression through strength. Invite aggression through weakness. I do not want to send my children to fight a war that could have been be avoided. If you are a parent, I hope you will agree.