Turkish democracy was ailing even before the main contender for challenging (and perhaps winning against) President Erdoğan, the Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was arrested last week on charges that many are arguing to be trumped up.
This by itself is noteworthy. It has become more so because it has also triggered widespread protests, which Turkey has not experienced since those surrounding the Gezi Park were put down.
What makes all of this so significant is that the current geopolitical situation has created a new opportunity for Turkey, which the country should not squander.
It goes something like this. Trump is attempting to remake the world order, not just fundamentally damaging American democracy. The US is increasingly allying itself with nondemocratic, authoritarian countries. The president is famously keen on staying in good terms with Russia’s autocratic leader Vladimir Putin. Despite all the talk of tariffs and chip wars, Trump could also form a new, and more friendly, transactional relationship with China.
The countries that Trump seems less interested in aligning the US with are the European ones and Canada. He’s also signaling the possibility of the US reneging its commitments to NATO (something that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago).
This could all change, if Democrats take back the House of Representatives in the midterms in 2026 and slow down Trump’s attack on US institutions and efforts to remake the global order, and then when the 2028 presidential election to reverse their consequences and rebuild US democracy. But so far, there is no guarantee that they will be able to do so. We should certainly not count on US institutions surviving intact for four more years.
The possibility of a new European block (perhaps joined by Canada), committed to liberal democracy and its own defense, is no longer unthinkable.
In the context of these developments, Turkey will have a choice. It can remain outside of both blocks. It can cozy up to the US-Russia-China axis. Or it can become part of the European block.
The European path is not a pie-in-the-sky. Turkey already has the second-largest ministry in NATO, and would be a crucial partner to Germany, France and other European countries in building a common defense. With rapid aging of European populations, the specter of more Turkish immigration to Europe may no longer be as daunting.
Becoming part of the European Union and the European defense pact would be game changers for Turkey. The country’s economy has been struggling because of lackluster productivity growth since 2006, and consequently slow real wage growth, despite endemic poverty. European markets, European capital, and most importantly European technology and joint venture opportunities with European companies could substantially boost Turkey’s productivity potential. (Recall, in this context that, the most rapid period of productivity growth in Turkey's recent past, between 2002-2006, was in the context of the country’s EU accession talks).
Yet, this path requires Turkey’s commitment to democracy.
Turkey needs to credibly signal to its European partners that it will try to reverse the downward slide of its democratic institutions (which has given the country the dubious achievement of being one of the worst performers, globally, in terms of worsening of democracy).
It will require its government to accept and even celebrate civil society activity and protests.
It will require the country’s youth to build on its newfound, greatest enthusiasm for politics and become even more engaged in the country’s affairs.
It will require the population to see Europeans as partners (that of the open sequence nationalist fervor directed against all Western powers).
Who will take this path? President Erdoğan has proven over the last several decades that he can change with the times and opportunities (and can bring his base together when he makes such turnarounds). But the change in perspective and institutional approach that is required here may be more radical than trying to bring the Kurds into the fold (which the president is now attempting).
There is no guarantee that Turkey will take this path. If President Erdoğan does not attempt it (as is likely), Turkish politics will become more uncertain and more confrontational. It remains unclear who will take the lead and whether this leader will be allowed to kickstart the necessary epochal transformation for the country’s future.