The most important indicator for the health of the real economy is how wage growth compares to inflation. For the first time since 2023 we're seeing prices in the US rise faster than wages, a decline in prosperity for the American worker.

There's been just as many big up days (13) as big down days (13) in the S&P 500 so far this year. Volatility cuts both ways. S&P 500 is still up over 6% on the year even after the recent 5% pullback.

The S&P 500 fell 1.6% today, the 13th daily decline in 2026 w/ a loss of more than 1%. This is perfectly normal volatility for the stock market - what was abnormal was the vertical advance off the March lows (9 straight weeks of gains) without any major pullback. $SPY

Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the US?’ 17 months later: South Korea 314%, Peru 122%, Taiwan 108% … S&P 500 31%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify.

Monetary policy should be restrictive until the 14% additional inflation we've had since January 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased. There's no point in having a 2% inflation target if you're not going to adhere to it. The Fed should be hiking rates to attack this scourge.

Esto es Europa en estado puro. El Banco Central Europeo frenó permisos a Revolut para sacar nuevos productos financieros porque el BCE está "preocupado sobre la rapidez con la que el banco digital saca nuevos productos" Revolut, que lo que tiene son tarjetas de crédito y préstamos al consumo le parece muy rápido al BCE 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 Prefieren bancos atestados de gente que parecen oficinas del siglo XX donde aún hacen fotocopias. ft.com/content/7cc86162-f68c… a través de @ft

We continue to apply Ukrainian long-range sanctions against Russian military facilities and the oil industry. In particular, last night Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingos struck a military plant in Cheboksary that supplies the occupier’s army with components for drones and missiles. I thank the Armed Forces of Ukraine for their precision! The Kuibyshev oil refinery in the Samara region was also hit last night. The distance from the frontline is more than 900 kilometers. I am grateful to the warriors of the Special Operations Forces, the Unmanned Systems Forces, and the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. The entirely just responses of the Security Service of Ukraine also reached two oil infrastructure facilities in the Vladimir region, at a distance of 700 kilometers. I thank everyone who fights and works for Ukraine!

Russian political influence over other countries is decreasing. Azerbaijan – they are independent. Armenia – yesterday's elections became a big success for Armenia’s independence. I also think the Russians lost Moldova. Of course, they don't want to lose Ukraine, because an independent and free Ukraine is the biggest and politically most dangerous country for Russia. When Ukraine joins the EU, Putin will have internal problems with different peoples, especially in the Caucasus. Different peoples across Russia will be raising questions. From an interview with The Guardian. (1/3)

RT @carpatos: Dice Zarohedge: Broadcom está respaldando un enorme SPV de crédito privado de 36.000 millones de dólares con Apollo y Blackst…

RT @carpatos: La IPO promedio en EEUU gana la mitad del mercado en los primeros 3 años...no son muy interesantes a medio plazo...

RT @carpatos: "Compra con los cañones, vende con las trompetas", Barón Rothschild. Ahora se oyen trompetas por todos lados...

RT @carpatos: Hartnett dice que hoy estamos en ese punto y que toca empezar a girar la cartera hacia los defensivos, los bonos y las pequeñ…

RT @carpatos: El valor de los activos financieros del sector privado en EEUU (acciones, bonos, depósitos, capital riesgo, fondos de pension…

The U.S. government is literally telling you where money is going next: DRONES. IF you missed out on the other Trump picks like $INTC and $DELL this your chance. Trump is pursuing funding deals to boost domestic drone production. Pure-Play Drone / Autonomy Names $AVAV - military drones $KTOS - autonomous warfare systems $RCAT - Teal defense drones $ONDS - drone autonomy networks $DPRO - FPV drone systems $UMAC - U.S. drone supply chain $SWMR - drone swarm technology $PDYN - AI drone software $AVEX - defense drone contractor Counter-Drone / Defense Tech $DRSHF - anti-drone defense $LHX - ISR drone warfare systems Major Defense Exposure $NOC - military UAV programs $LMT - autonomous defense systems $TXT - unmanned aircraft systems $GD - defense systems exposure $BA - UAV aerospace programs

RT @carpatos: El mercado está apostando a que, si algo se rompe, no arrastrará al resto. Porque justo lo que pasaría si esos fondos venden…

Based on the CPI and PPI, forecasters anticipate the core PCE rose 0.28% in April. This would lift the 12-month rate to 3.3%, the highest since November 2023 (when the Fed still had a tightening bias). The 6-month annualized rate would rise to 3.8% (highest since June 2023).

1987... 2000... 2008... 2020... Right before every major market collapse in modern history, investors were convinced the danger had passed. The media called it a “new era.” The rally felt unstoppable. Now the Nasdaq just ripped 30% in under 2 months while debt, speculation, and complacency sit near historic extremes… and almost nobody is talking about it.

RT @carpatos: Goldman: Las acciones favoritas de los gestores activos llevan un −3 % en el año, mientras que las acciones que los gestores…

Moscow and Moscow region will remain under Ukrainian strikes until Putin signs a capitulation. Today the largest Ukrainian attack on Moscow and the Moscow region since the beginning of the war took place. Russian military infrastructure and oil facilities that generate money for Russia’s war machine were under attack. Social media is now full of videos from residents of the Moscow region complaining that they “never thought the war would reach them.” According to opinion polls, 75% of Moscow residents support the actions of Russian troops in Ukraine. They also support continuing the war rather than starting negotiations. These figures are roughly twice as high as the Russian national average. Residents of Moscow participate the least in the war, suffer the fewest casualties, and the Russian authorities do everything possible to ensure that life in Moscow and Saint Petersburg remains almost unchanged from pre-war times. As long as it did not directly affect them, Muscovites either supported the war or pretended it had nothing to do with them. Moscow is the center of the empire. Russia has always been deeply polarized: Moscow treats many of its own territories and peoples as colonies. Strikes on other Russian regions barely concerned the Russian authorities. For Russia and its regime, Moscow is the political, financial, ideological, and symbolic center that embodies the full concentration of power. Moscow is the main imperial symbol dominating vast regions - Putin’s personal fortress, from which the neo-imperial state is controlled and the war is directed. That is why Putin was so afraid of Ukrainian drones during the parade. Ukraine has now developed - and continues to develop - our long-range strike capabilities against Russia. And we will act symmetrically. Moscow’s air defense systems can no longer fully protect Russian military and oil facilities. Russia’s war against Ukraine is now also being fought on Russian territory. Leave Ukrainian territory, pay reparations, and it will all end!

Our responses to Russia’s prolongation of the war and its attacks on our cities and communities are entirely justified. This time, Ukrainian long-range sanctions reached the Moscow region, and we are clearly telling the Russians: their state must end its war. Ukrainian drone and missile manufacturers continue their work. I am grateful to the Security Service of Ukraine and all the Defense Forces of Ukraine for their precision. The distance from Ukraine’s state border is over 500 km. The concentration of Russian air defense in the Moscow region is the highest. But we are overcoming it. Glory to Ukraine!