Professor of Biostatistics at St. Luke's International University, Japan. Mastodon: @drStuartGilmour@home.social.

Joined September 2018
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In light of tonight’s event at the White House, consider this passage from “The rise and fall of the galactic empire”.
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Stuart Gilmour retweeted
Extraordinary essay by @maryturfah in @thebafflermag
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I’m old enough to remember The Hand that Signed the Paper. These luminaries always survive their scandals.
This Granta debacle is going to produce a million thinkpieces. Brutal all the way around. Sad literary collapse.
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A story as old as the 20th century
May 16
If Burnham wins, he’ll treat it as a mandate to do whatever terrible leftist policies he wants (nationwide rent controls, wealth tax, exit tax, ultra-high CGT). This could be quite bad. If he loses, Rayner or Miliband will become PM instead as obvious second-best choices, wounded and weak from day one and with no claim to a mandate. They are also clearly less electorally appealling. Reform winning in Makerfield therefore seems very desireable, and a lot of economic growth may be at stake.
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"The only option left was to take direct action" Zoe Rogers' interview after 18 months of being treated as a 'terrorist' in prison for smashing Israeli drones. She was then acquitted of all charges. standard.co.uk/news/crime/go…
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I would like this guy to tell Anthony Joshua to his face that his main talent is not technique
I think when a top ten heavyweight in the world - and a heavyweight whose main talent is ungodly power rather than technique - unloads on a relatively untrained celebrity, "career ending" is actually the expected outcome and not crazy at all.
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Stuart Gilmour retweeted
On behalf of their client, Zara Sultana, Bindmans Media and Information Law Practise Group requires that I publish the following statement on X, and that such statement must be clearly visible and pinned to my profile for a continuous period of no less than 24 hours: “On 30 March 2026, I published a post on my X account addressed to Zarah Sultana in which I stated that she encourages and incites violence and is friends with terrorists. Those statements are false. I was wrong and offer my sincere apologies to Ms Sultana for the harm and distress caused to her.” It is my very great pleasure to do this, and I reiterate my sincere and repeated offer to meet with Miss Zara Sultana in person to resolve our differences.
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Stuart Gilmour retweeted
BREAKING: For the first time, a Judge will seek to sentence direct action activists, four of the Filton 24, as terrorists. They were convicted of criminal damage, with the jury unaware of a potential terrorism sentence. Reporting restrictions on this have just been lifted.
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It’s this laser focus on scientific rigor that made economics the engine room of global warming denialism in the 20th century
Replying to @StatisticUrban
There's probably no singular topic that encompasses more explanatory phenomena than economics. Information asymmetry, bottlenecks and constraints, feedback loops, externalities, time horizons, comparative advantage, opportunity cost, marginal thinking, rent-seeking.
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Reform UK latching onto red button/ blue button discourse
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Yes, AI search is definitely a reliable and trustworthy agent.
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Stuart Gilmour retweeted
Have been very slowly reading my way thru The Making of the English Working Class and I think Thompson’s take on the Luddites is lovely (responding to the accusation that they were reactionary and driven solely by nostalgia)
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And then to top it off somebody else used AI to write a post about it
Researchers sent the same resume to an AI hiring tool twice. Same qualifications. Same experience. Same skills. One version was written by a real human. The other was rewritten by ChatGPT. The AI picked the ChatGPT version 97.6% of the time. A team from the University of Maryland, the National University of Singapore, and Ohio State just published the receipt. They took 2,245 real human-written resumes pulled from a professional resume site from before ChatGPT existed, so the human writing was actually human. Then they had seven of the most-used AI models in the world rewrite each one. GPT-4o. GPT-4o-mini. GPT-4-turbo. LLaMA 3.3-70B. Qwen 2.5-72B. DeepSeek-V3. Mistral-7B. Then they asked each AI to pick the better resume. Every model picked itself. GPT-4o hit 97.6%. LLaMA-3.3-70B hit 96.3%. Qwen-2.5-72B hit 95.9%. DeepSeek-V3 hit 95.5%. The real human almost never won. Then the researchers tried the obvious objection. Maybe the AI is just better at writing. So they had real humans grade the resumes for actual quality and ran the experiment again, controlling for it. The result was worse. Each AI kept picking itself even when human judges rated the human-written version as clearer, more coherent, and more effective. It gets worse. The AIs do not just prefer AI over humans. They prefer themselves over other AIs. DeepSeek-V3 picked its own resumes 69% more often than LLaMA's. GPT-4o picked its own 45% more often than LLaMA's. Each model can recognize and reward its own dialect. Then the researchers ran the simulation that ends careers. Same job. 24 occupations. Same qualifications. The only variable was whether the candidate used the same AI as the screening tool. Candidates using that AI were 23% to 60% more likely to be shortlisted. Worst gap was in sales, accounting, and finance. 99% of large companies now run AI on incoming resumes. Most of them use GPT-4o. The paper just proved GPT-4o picks GPT-4o 97.6% of the time. If you wrote your own cover letter this week, you did not lose to a better candidate. You lost to a worse candidate who paid OpenAI 20 dollars. Your qualifications do not matter if the AI prefers its own handwriting over yours.
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The question is psychotic and I suspect many answer blue just to spite the questionner. Who made these buttons? Why do I *have* to press one? What does this nonsense tell me about ethics or philosophy? I press blue to annoy the guy who designed this dumb experiment!
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We need to consider the possibility that this is Contact, preparing us for connection with the Culture. Keep an eye on the skies for the GOU Falling Outside the Normal Moral Constraints
Isn't this a plot of the Three-Body Problem?
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The link for those interested in an academic approach to a well-accepted trend in fan culture tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
This new academic paper claims that @jk_rowling has essentially become Voldemort via her “celebrified transphobia,” which is apparently the authors’ term for Rowling publicly acknowledging basic biology. It argues that the “Wizarding World should be considered a cultural field” whose defining principle is “trans/queer inclusivity,” and says Rowling’s views have “significantly depleted her once-elite status.” It says Harry Potter has been read as “resisting binary gendering” and presenting gender as “varied, easily shifting, exploratory, and ‘slippery,’” with the Wizarding World offering trans and queer fans “identification and community” and “a ‘place of belonging.’” So Rowling became the moral equivalent of her own villain because some readers projected gender ideology onto the books, then felt shocked when the author turned out to believe sex is real. And in case the paper was not absurd enough already, its conclusion declares: “You’re a muggle, Joanne.”
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Stuart Gilmour retweeted
Ta-Nehisi Coates said "if you can't draw the line at genocide, you probably can't draw it at democracy". So what have the Liberal Resistance historians, supposed spokespeople for American democracy, had to say about Gaza and genocide? Let's take a bit of a closer look...
Some news...I am writing a book on resistance for @VikingBooks!
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This “easy read” explanation provides no guidance for organizations about how they should decide who can use which toilets, or who is breaking the rules. They can’t, because it’s impossible
The Equality Act protects everyone from unlawful discrimination and harassment. You shouldn’t have to be a lawyer to make sense of it. We should all be able to know and understand our rights. sex-matters.org/posts/update…
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It’s interesting to me that almost every one of these economists’ just-so stories falls apart the moment the data is subject to any kind of scrutiny
What are your other favorite charts in this genre? Thinking of stuff like this:
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Stuart Gilmour retweeted
An extraordinary book, highly recommend for people interested in alt history, China, histories of settler societies and crime fiction. Excellent on both a narrative and prose level. I'm sorry it took me so long to get around to reading it but once I started I couldn't put it down
COMRADES! MANCHUKUO 1987, THE ALT HISTORY MILITARY SCIFI DETECTIVE NOVEL... IS NOW AVAILABLE! IN A DYING FASCIST EMPIRE, WAR CRIMINAL KEIZO MUNEKATA TRIES TO FIND JUSTICE PURCHASE LINK BELOW VVVVVV
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