🎯🌾Here is another point supporting my view.
This year, the wheat market has rallied by 31.5%!🔥
Since 2015, this ranks among the best annual performances.
Of course, context matters a lot. I know the past two years were difficult. But for producers who need to commercialize their production over a two-year window, not taking advantage of such a strong annual performance could be regrettable.
And I’m not saying producers should sell everything far ahead, just start taking advantage of these price levels progressively.
✅It doesn’t mean prices can’t move higher from here, but it does mean they can also move lower.
⌛️🔴Everyone is talking about a massive wheat bull run because of poor production prospects and soaring fertilizer costs. Those arguments make sense, and they are part of the reason why I’ve been bullish on wheat since the beginning of the year.
But agricultural markets are rarely that simple.
Long-term trends can remain bullish while corrections still happen along the way, and we may be entering one now.
One key factor is seasonality. Agriculture is probably the most seasonal market of all because production cycles are annual. Historically, the June–August period tends to be bearish across grains as harvest approaches, yield visibility improves, and farmers become more active sellers.
Every year, the market says “this year is different.” Sometimes it is, but caution remains important, especially after a 30% rally in wheat over the past year.
We also shouldn’t forget that early USDA reports are often the most pessimistic of the campaign and can later improve as production prospects evolve.
🎯For farmers, commercialization is not only about selling at the highest possible price. It’s also about reducing risk. Waiting indefinitely for a price explosion without securing part of the 2026 crop after such a rally may not be the most responsible strategy.