1.Current Correction Deepens: If the S&P 500 falls 20% from 6,135.47 (to ~4,908), we’d enter bear territory. At 5,396.52 on April 3, it was already halfway there; a 20% drop might hit by late April or May 2025 if tariffs and retaliation keep hammering markets.
2.Bottoming Process: Corrections last 1-4 months on average; bear markets, 9-18 months. Given the sharp trigger (tariffs), this could be quick—say, a bottom in June-July 2025 if it’s just a correction, or late 2025/early 2026 if it’s a full bear market (e.g., recession fears push it longer).
3.New Bull Start: Once the bottom’s in, the next bull market begins. Historically, post-correction rallies often follow big policy shifts or economic stabilization. If tariffs ease or earnings rebound, a new bull could start by Q3 2025 (July-September). If it’s a bear market, maybe Q1 2026.
#stockmarketcrash #tariffs