Some napkin math on
$AAOI:
> Management explicitly told you that their mid-2027 target is $471M transceiver revenue - that's $5.65B annualized just from their 100G/400G, 800G and 1.6T lines.
> The biggest risk is management doesn't achieve this (it is ultimately a huge ramp, but one they've raised capital for). But if they do, that puts AAOI at roughly 2.4–2.9x P/S at today's market cap. That is stupid cheap compared to larger optical peers: Lumentum trades around 15x FY2027 sales and Coherent around 8x FY2027 sales.
> CPO laser also sits on top as a free option (GS already predicts this will reach ~$100B in 2028).
>
$AAOI (pluggables) will be a big beneficiary if CPO is delayed as Semi Analysis argues in their CPO report.
I think
$AAOI, while not without risk, presents great risk to reward. NFA - I am long.
Full analysis below, including my take on the "risk" that management is unable to succeed in ramping production.