To God be the glory | Turned 80K to 1M in 4 years | Now hoping to build gen wealth | High-conviction, asymmetric picks only | I publish my process on Substack:
Joined July 2025
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Updated napkin math on $GLXY (with thanks to @BacchicBard and @jdorman81)
It's market cap is around $13B.
$GLXY has three core businesses:
> its crypto balance sheet, currently around $3-4b;
> its crypto Investment Banking type business;
> its data centre business.
Essentially, $GLXY already has 800MW approved and leased to $CRWV and has another 800MW approved (@novogratz said we'll learn of the tenant by July hopefully, so I think it makes sense to factor this in).
If you apply the same margins as their $CRWV
deal across the board (even though this next 800MW deal should be on more favourable terms as power has become more scarce), that is 2.2B in revenue ~ 2B in EBITDA (90% EBITDA margins). Say you slap a 15x EV/ EBITDA, that's $30B Enterprise Value on its data centre business alone when the 1.6GW comes online fully. Say 1.6GW comes fully online in 2031, and debt in 2031 is $5B? That is $25B Equity Value in 2031. Applying a 12.5% discount rate, that is $13.8B in June 2026 - effectively the entire $GLXY market cap now. This does not include their additional 1.9GW which will likely get approved the fact that Galaxy will be the largest single-site power provider. I'd argue that deserves a premium of at least $3B.
It's crypto IB business is another beast altogether, but I think it can conservatively be valued at $2.5B today (bull $5B).
Conservatively, $GLXY should at least be $2.5B (IB Business), $17B (data centre, accounting also for 1.9GW more in study), and $3B crypto balance sheet. That adds up to $22.5B.
$GLXY is trading at $13B now (needs to rerate 70% higher to be fair valued.
Price Target: $59.
Some napkin math on $GLXY.
It's market cap is around $12B.
$GLXY has three core businesses:
> its crypto balance sheet, currently around $3-4b;
> its crypto Investment Banking type business;
> its data centre business.
Essentially, $GLXY already has 800MW approved and leased to $CRWV and has another 800MW approved (@novogratz said we'll learn of the tenant by July hopefully).
If you apply the same margins as their $CRWV deal, that is 2.4B in revenue and 2.16B in EBITDA (90% EBITDA margins). Say you slap a 15x P/ EBITDA, that's $32B on its data centre business alone. Say 1.6GW comes online 2028? So since market is forward looking, that's a FY 2027 price.
It also seems very likely that $GLXY can have 3.5GW come fully online by 2031/2032. Applying the same metrics, that's $5.25b in revenue and 4.725b in EBITDA in 2031/2032 just from the data centre business alone. At15x P/EBITDA that's $70b ($170 per share) in 7 years.
It's crypto IB business is another beast altogether, but I think it can conservatively be valued at $5B (bull $20B).
Conservatively, $GLXY should at least be $5B (IB Business), $30B (data centre, accounting also for 1.9GW more in study), and $3B crypto balance sheet.
That adds up to $38B. $GLXY is trading at $12B now.
I am long $GLXY.
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I got a few questions about $AAOI's laser production so I thought I'd share publicly in your interest (as admittedly this is a very important point).
In case you didn't know, one of the stronger points about $AAO is this: Not only does it have indium phospide laser manufacturing capacity, it has been actively expanding it over the past 18 months.
While they admittedly do not have the substrate-making capabilities, they have diversified their sources to have 4 or 5 suppliers. They also have enough inventory for over a year, which gives them visibility as they scale.
AAOI may very well control one of the key bottleneck components needed for optics to scale.
I discuss many other nuances in my article, which I think is worth reading if you're invested in $AAOI.
Jun 13
Some napkin math on $AAOI:
> Management explicitly told you that their mid-2027 target is $471M transceiver revenue - that's $5.65B annualized just from their 100G/400G, 800G and 1.6T lines.
> The biggest risk is management doesn't achieve this (it is ultimately a huge ramp, but one they've raised capital for). But if they do, that puts AAOI at roughly 2.4–2.9x P/S at today's market cap. That is stupid cheap compared to larger optical peers: Lumentum trades around 15x FY2027 sales and Coherent around 8x FY2027 sales.
> CPO laser also sits on top as a free option (GS already predicts this will reach ~$100B in 2028).
> $AAOI (pluggables) will be a big beneficiary if CPO is delayed as Semi Analysis argues in their CPO report.
I think $AAOI, while not without risk, presents great risk to reward. NFA - I am long.
Full analysis below, including my take on the "risk" that management is unable to succeed in ramping production.
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Jun 13
Some napkin math on $AAOI:
> Management explicitly told you that their mid-2027 target is $471M transceiver revenue - that's $5.65B annualized just from their 100G/400G, 800G and 1.6T lines.
> The biggest risk is management doesn't achieve this (it is ultimately a huge ramp, but one they've raised capital for). But if they do, that puts AAOI at roughly 2.4–2.9x P/S at today's market cap. That is stupid cheap compared to larger optical peers: Lumentum trades around 15x FY2027 sales and Coherent around 8x FY2027 sales.
> CPO laser also sits on top as a free option (GS already predicts this will reach ~$100B in 2028).
> $AAOI (pluggables) will be a big beneficiary if CPO is delayed as Semi Analysis argues in their CPO report.
I think $AAOI, while not without risk, presents great risk to reward. NFA - I am long.
Full analysis below, including my take on the "risk" that management is unable to succeed in ramping production.
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Jun 13
Thanks for this Jeff. Your post really made me think - as I suggested, the below was really just napkin math but curious how you're thinking about this.
Say you're correct, and timeline is longer. Say by 2031, they will only have the full 1.63MW online. If you apply the same $CRWV metrics, you get $2.4B revenue and $2.16B EBITDA for that 1.63MW. Slap a 15x EV / EBITDA and you get $32B EBITDA in 2031. Minus debt (roughly $4B in 2031?) that's $28B Equity Value in 2031. Discounted to today, you get $16.4B NPV, a mere 25% upside from here?
You will likely get some premiums for the further 1.9GW that will likely be contracted by then largest single-site DC - say that's a $2B premium today (which I think is generous), you get $18.5B NPV today, which is a 50% upside at its best.
Otherwise, crypto balance sheet remains $3B, and I think the IB arm can justify $2.5B today ($5B in 2031, see here: x.com/OGCapital25/status/194…)
Totalling $24B today? Agree or disagree?
Jun 12
Directionally agree with this. We think timeline is longer, the IB is probably worth a little less, and overall multiple will have crypto drag, but $GLXY is still wildly undervalued by all measures based on the data center business alone.
@Crypto_Alex17 nailed the $IREN $WULF and $CIFR thesis for us last year... has nailed GLXY thus far too. He's your guy for understanding crypto companies that have pivoted to AI
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OrangeGroveCapital retweeted
Think we see a monster $GLXY run in the next few months.
Bought bigly today.
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Jun 12
Study relative strength.
I break it all down for you below - $GLXY is wildly undervalued.
Some napkin math on $GLXY.
It's market cap is around $12B.
$GLXY has three core businesses:
> its crypto balance sheet, currently around $3-4b;
> its crypto Investment Banking type business;
> its data centre business.
Essentially, $GLXY already has 800MW approved and leased to $CRWV and has another 800MW approved (@novogratz said we'll learn of the tenant by July hopefully).
If you apply the same margins as their $CRWV deal, that is 2.4B in revenue and 2.16B in EBITDA (90% EBITDA margins). Say you slap a 15x P/ EBITDA, that's $32B on its data centre business alone. Say 1.6GW comes online 2028? So since market is forward looking, that's a FY 2027 price.
It also seems very likely that $GLXY can have 3.5GW come fully online by 2031/2032. Applying the same metrics, that's $5.25b in revenue and 4.725b in EBITDA in 2031/2032 just from the data centre business alone. At15x P/EBITDA that's $70b ($170 per share) in 7 years.
It's crypto IB business is another beast altogether, but I think it can conservatively be valued at $5B (bull $20B).
Conservatively, $GLXY should at least be $5B (IB Business), $30B (data centre, accounting also for 1.9GW more in study), and $3B crypto balance sheet.
That adds up to $38B. $GLXY is trading at $12B now.
I am long $GLXY.
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Jun 12
Elon will poop and these Tesla influencers will say Optimus is scheduled for wide release.
The best thing you can do is to block every single one of them.
Jun 12
Something smells fishy 😏
@elonmusk never reposts a FSD point release.
@aelluswamy never asks “when 14.3.4 cross country” type questions.
Something tells me the @Tesla_AI feels confident.
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OrangeGroveCapital retweeted
II've just started using Substack, anyone have any recommendations on who to follow?
So far I'm following @OGCapital25 @ren_stocks @citrini
The longer form content is a game changer for building real conviction in your positions. So you're not panic selling on days like these.
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OrangeGroveCapital retweeted
Jun 12
I've received quite a few queries on the below article. Specifically, presumably because the article was paywalled, viewers think I am bearish / am selling.
No, that cannot be further from the case - I am still very, very long, but just in the sectors I discuss below (and where I think the rotation is happening).
I've made this article free for everyone now as I think it is very important you understand the full picture. Hopefully this helps you.
x.com/OGCapital25/status/206…
Jun 11
Last Friday, on the back of a strong jobs report, the S&P fell by 2.7%, wiping out $1.8 trillion in market value and marking the index's worst single-day drop in eight months.
To the extent that spooked any of you, I’ve spent the weekend preparing this article examining the state of the economy today and where I think we’re headed. It combines both technical and fundamental analysis to present what is I think a nuanced view of the economy today.
I’ll spoil the conclusion for you: We’re not going to enter a bear market any time soon, but sector selection will be very, very important - I break it all down in the article.
substack.com/@ogcapital25/no…
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Jun 12
Anyone who thinks $SPCX will sell off at opening bell is just dead wrong and should be unfollowed.
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I appreciate my dude! Really means a lot.
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Jun 12
This type of comments mean a lot to me. It means especially more coming from someone like Gaetano, who I look up to.
I spend a lot of time on all of my articles to give you novel perspectives, and spend even more time doing the research to defend / justify my positions (or at least explain why they’re the most likely outcome). It’s the approach that has helped me 10x my portfolio in 4 years: chasing high-conviction asymmetric picks.
So having my work recognised really makes me happy and drives me to do even better.
Thanks Gaetano!
Jun 9
tis a good one
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Jun 12
Nothing we didn’t already know!
MI450 is going to surprise these analysts even more.
AMD is dirt cheap.
Jun 12
BREAKING $AMD| $575 PT Upgrade | BUY Rating🚀
@Citi Analyst Atif Malik Upgrades @AMD to BUY From Neutral, Raises Price Target to $575 from $460.
Citi says AMD's GPU upside is not fully priced into the shares. AMD is "emerging as legit second source" in the GPU market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi sees AMD well positioned to win the "lion's share" at $META. AMD is still viewed as a central processing unit stock, which creates upside potential.
Video generated by AI Grok
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