Chief Market Strategist / Partner @ Pivotus Partners. Always seeking truth / assessing risks. My opinions only. Not investment advice. Do the work!

Joined January 2017
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19 Jan 2024
I write macroeconomic and strategy assessments for the institutional investment community. My posts here are things that I find interesting, thoughtful, or merely just entertaining. Although some of my posts may reflect strongly-held views on the investment landscape, that doesn't mean those views won't change as facts change and it certainly doesn't mean those things are right for YOU! Proper investment advice involves a deep understanding of your goals, needs, and risk-tolerances. Nobody should consider anything here investment advice, but rather, merely informative. I'd probably offer the same level of caution about getting medical advice here too, by the way. Have a health issue? See a doctor. Want to devise a financial plan? Well, see a financial advisor. Twitter ain't going to cure you in either instance.
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I think 60 days from now Congress shoots down U.S. appropriations for Iran. Iran then keeps the Uranium. Maybe they charge "environmental" fees in Strait. They'll get no money (aside from frozen funds returned). The regime goes back to the terrorizing they normally do. And Trump knows all this and wants you to forget about it when oil prices are lower.
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Oh but Jerome Powell was over budget on the remodel
BREAKING: US officials have now confirmed in a briefing that Iran will get full access to a total of $100 billion in frozen funds and the $300 billion reconstruction fund, both included in the deal with implementation now underway, per WSJ. More than $150 billion of the fund has already been committed, directly contradicting Trump's claims that the US would not contribute to the $300 billion fund, per Reuters.
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The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. AT LEAST
Al Arabia claims it obtained the MOU document (document not confirmed by the U.S.) 1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles. 2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs. 3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. 4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement. 5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of ​​Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran. 6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days. 7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary. 8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article. 9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region. 10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like. Cont. 👇🏻
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Richard Farr retweeted
President Trump says Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) will be "in big trouble" if he is skeptical of his deal with Iran.
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The wealthiest people in the world (updated)
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I can now confirm that Israel formally requested access to the Iran MoU and was denied. A remarkable and highly unusual development between close allies on an issue of such critical national security importance.
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Richard Farr retweeted
🔴 JUST NOW - Mind-boggling. Trump states that he put Jolani in Syria and Jolani should be the one sorting Hezbollah out in Lebanon and not Israel. “The man that is running Syria now is a man that I put there” “He’s done an amazing job at pulling it together. He’s not a boy-scout” “I suggest to Israel to let Syria take care of Hezbollah because to be honest with you I think they’d do a better job at doing it”
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Crazy town
Trump is reportedly considering dismissing several senior officials who opposed the Iran deal, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. Israel Hayom
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Elon is a genius. Creates hype around a stock by promising you a share of the future. What value do you put on the future???? Then he only unlocks 5% of the float. The price spike and large market cap creates forced buying scenarios in a world dominated by passive indexing. And in a couple months they can hopefully dump $1T of stock on the market … but since the passive indices rarely sell, only buy, there’s not many sellers alongside them. Liquidity matters and this dude figured out the formula.
I have bad news for the $SPCX bears… the forced-buying is about to begin. $22–30B of price-agnostic buying. Into a sub 5% float. Over the next 20 days. CRSP (VTI) ~Jun 19 FTSE Russell Jun 26 MSCI Jun 29 QQQ ~Jul 6
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You have $8T sitting in money market mutual funds ($3T of which is retail) chasing a stock with “just” $100B of float. But if the stock stays high, 30% of shares can be dumped on the public following its Q2 earnings release in August. That could end up being $1T of stock under certain scenarios with more to follow. It’s important to understand the liquidity specifics. Do your research.
The buyers, right now, 4 a.m. are going nuts for SpaceX, taking it through $210. They just can't stop buying and as you can imagine, there are no sellers of size around at this hour. The buyers could walk this one up billions and billions of dollars higher without some source of funds arriving.
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Richard Farr retweeted
Pousser un peuple à se soulever, l'abandonner au massacre, puis pactiser avec ses bourreaux : connaît-on escroquerie morale plus achevée dans l'histoire diplomatique ?
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Set the egg timer
In case people haven’t done the arithmetic, SPCX up 50% means the 9x the IPO size of 180-day lockup shares which can start coming out the second full day after Q2 earnings is now worth $900bn. Forgetting the wealth of the sellers, it just absorbs more ‘new money’.
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Just wait until they get $300B and you’ll see how rational they are
TRUMP SAYS IRAN NOW HAS A RATIONAL LEADERSHIP
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I had no idea Herschel Walker was ambassador to the Bahamas.
🚨 SAFETY ALERT: Ambassador Herschel Walker has an important message for Americans visiting The Bahamas: Jet ski rentals pose a serious risk of injury, death, and sexual assault. U.S. gov't employees are banned from renting them — and you should avoid them too. Watch. Share. Stay safe. ⬇️
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I think it’s time to revisit the accredited investor laws in the US. Companies are staying private longer, where only accredited investors (aka rich people!) can invest. Retail investors can only come in after IPO, when much of the upside has already been captured. These rules were created with the best of intentions, to protect regular people from scams - a noble idea. Unfortunately, in practice they've often made it illegal to get richer, unless you're already rich. A regressive tax! We have to judge policies based on their outcomes, not on their intentions. These are two possible routes I see: 1) Replace the rule with something merit-based, like a financial literacy test. Pass it and you're accredited. Having a qualification based on competency rather than your bank balance or income seems far more fair. 2) Remove the rule entirely. Let consenting adults assess their own risk. Disclosure requirements stay and fraud enforcement stays to punish bad actors.
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But won’t Teams still work on Mars?????????
SPCX hits $3 trillion in market cap, surpassing MSFT
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Richard Farr retweeted
JUST IN: Billionaire wealth tax no longer projected to be on California ballot, as billionaires worth a combined $1 trillion flee the state in historic wealth exodus.
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