Quant Alert: Oil prices are not rocketing to $150 or $200 in the near future.
A few spot transactions have been reported at $150, and malicious actors in the futures markets are pushing for $200 per barrel.
Those spot transactions were opportunistic gouging, sort of like showing up in Las Vegas and shelling out $25 for the first water bottle in sight....A tanker shows up in the Persian Gulf, without a contract or even with a contract, and has to fill up at $150 or leave with nothing.
If world markets were that short of oil, futures prices would right now reflect that fact. Instead, prices have fluctuated for the past week between $92 and $99 a barrel. Not a pleasant fact, but not a disaster either.