Sick x.com/cadx_studio?s=11

Nailed it

GEO500 Weekly Wrap , by @geospatfm open.substack.com/pub/geospa…

It got too good

excellent view of @SpaceX from @ProSyn - it is East India Company v2, and the government better get an ownership stake or clawing back control will be ruinous project-syndicate.org/commen…

I had a lot of Fable tokens to use up before my weekly reset, so I made this live 3D map of London with Three.js Every train, bus, boat and plane is real and live right now! - Tube, bus and riverboat data from TfL - National Rail trains from Darwin live departure boards - ADS-B for planes and helicopters - AIS feed for boats and ships - Map data from Overture and OpenStreetMap Trains and buses have no GPS feed, so their positions are inferred from arrival countdowns and departure boards, then animated along the track/route geometry

Smart analogy

More on the CAD BIM stock bust

the evolution of robotics

Precisely

BREAKING: SpaceX is set to IPO on June 12 at a $1.77 trillion valuation. $75 billion raise. $135 a share. Ticker SPCX on the Nasdaq. If it prices at those numbers, it will be the largest IPO in human history. And the math behind it should make every retail investor stop and think. Here's what's actually being priced in, and what nobody on finance Twitter is telling you: SpaceX generates roughly $15 billion in annual revenue. A $1.77 trillion valuation on that is a price-to-sales ratio of 118x. For context, traditional aerospace companies trade at 2x to 6x sales. Big Tech mega-caps generally trade between 10x and 30x sales. Nvidia, in the middle of the most hyped AI buildout in history, sits well below 118x. The SpaceX IPO would price the company at roughly 4x the sales multiple of the most expensive megacap on the board. That is not pricing a company. That is pricing a thesis. The thesis goes like this: Starlink becomes the dominant global ISP, sitting above every legacy telecom on the planet. Falcon 9 and its successors hold a near-monopoly on orbital launches. Starship unlocks lunar contracts, defense logistics, space manufacturing, and eventually Mars. All three play out. Over decades. Without major execution failures. If every assumption hits, the bull case Ron Baron has floated puts SpaceX at $10 trillion to $30 trillion in future market cap. That is what you're actually buying at $135 a share. Not a $15 billion revenue business. A 20-year compound bet that one company dominates three separate industries simultaneously. Now here's the part the headlines are skipping. Pre-IPO investors who got in during the December 2025 tender offer paid the equivalent of $84 a share after the 5-for-1 split. Insiders have a $3.75 billion share allocation with no lockup. They can sell on day one. Retail gets 30% of the public float at $135. That is 3x the normal mega-cap allocation for retail, with a dedicated retail event the day before listing. Three tiers, three different prices, same company. This is the structural reality of every megacap IPO. Institutions and insiders get the early entry. Retail gets the public float at the marketed price. Nothing about that is unique to SpaceX. It is how the system is built. The wealthy understand this and treat IPOs accordingly. They wait for lockups to expire, watch how index inclusion changes flow, and size positions to the structure rather than the headline. Most retail investors do the opposite. They see the biggest IPO in history, hear the trillion-dollar valuation, and click buy on day one. By the time the index inclusion announcement comes through and the passive funds have to buy, retail has already paid the highest price in the stack. Here is what makes SpaceX worth watching, regardless of what you decide to do: Starlink is genuinely one of the most impressive infrastructure businesses ever built, Falcon 9 has rewritten the unit economics of getting to orbit, and Starship is the most ambitious aerospace program in history. If even half of what Musk has signaled actually plays out over the next 20 years, the long-term case is real. The question is not whether SpaceX is a great company. The question is whether the price you pay on day one of a frenzied IPO leaves any room for compound returns over a decade. Buying a great company at the wrong price is still buying the wrong price. The investors who win this trade will not be the ones who tweeted hardest about it Friday morning. They will be the ones who had a system, sized accordingly, and ignored the noise. Surmount helps you automate your investments with rules-based strategies built on data, not hype cycles.

aukus = exit liquidity for 2nd hand useless subs the usa wants to offload because a $50 drone can destroy them.

Sick

SpaceX goes public Friday at ~94x revenue. Across 45 years of data, IPOs that debut above 40x sales underperform the market by 58% over the next 3 years, and by 76% style-adjusted. The golden rule of IPO investing: the lower the price-to-sales at entry, the better the long-run return.

Fuck yes

The S-1 sizes the AI opportunity at a $26.5tn total addressable market, of which $22.7tn – fully 86 percent – is labeled “enterprise applications.” That assumes that SpaceX, xAI, or whatever the entity comes to be called, will effectively own the market for enterprise applications. That would be an astonishing claim for any company. For this one, it is incongruous. 3/

Fantastic news!!!

Japan Earth Observer, by @geospatialfm, open.substack.com/pub/geospa…

🦔Google's equity positions in SpaceX and Anthropic are worth north of $200 billion at current valuations. Every dollar they pay in compute inflates the revenue that inflates the valuations that inflate their own balance sheet. Capex that funds itself on paper.

Google has a $100B stake in spacex that has a 12 month lockup. The "3 year deal" has a 3 month notice so a deal that wildly overpays spacex under the pretense of "capacity constraint" is a pretty great way to protect your investment. x.com/JakeKAllDay/status/206…